north carolina

[WalterMitty]

lean very slightly romney.

[cope1989]

Demographic changes have continued in NC. Pure tossup to Slight Romney without the same turnout as in 2008. if turnout is high among minorities, lean Obama.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

lean mitt.

[GM Griffin]

I think it's a pure tossup at this point. Demographics have made NC more favorable to Obama than in 2008 but obviously, there is less enthusiasm among Democrats than there was four years ago.

[Chaddyr23]

Tossup, incumbency cancels out a little less enthusiasm. Also, Romney's not going to energize everyone on the right. Definitely will be interesting to see.

[Pictor Ignotus]

tossup

[5280/East California]

I voted lean Romney, but its between lean Romney and toss up.

[Pacific Councillor Big Wiggly Style]

Tossup, lean Romney.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Tossup. With a gun to my head, I'd pick Obama.

[True Federalist]

Lean Romney right now, but if Obama has a good election he can gain the State.

[Vermin Supreme]

Tossup at this point.

[memphis]

Another competitive state that would guarantee Obama  have re-election. We have MO, NC, VA, OH, FL, IN. And all he needs is one.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Solid Obama.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Right now Obama's leading the polls, but I think the Big Four are still swing states.

[Tender Branson]

Totally a toss-up.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

If he beat McCain, he's going to destroy Romney.

[Pacific Councillor Big Wiggly Style]

Solid Obama.

lol

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

McCain actually won in South Carolina. If Obama beat him in North Carolina, I can't see how Mitt takes it.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Edit - post vanished.

WRT Obama's white southern support-

You mind walking me through that thinking, that they would choose Mitt over re-electing Obama?

I just don't see it.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

McCain actually won in South Carolina. If Obama beat him in North Carolina, I can't see how Mitt takes it.

Because the split of the Republican electorate does not necessarily indicate the extent of Republican defections come November, nor do all swing voters participate in the Republican primaries.  There may be a correlation, but fast evidence suggests that it's not incredibly strong -- same thing happened with Huckabee.  McCain's counties weren't the ones where Obama got pulverized in the General; they generally voted for Huck.

I really don't understand why you would look at this instead of polls.  Polls have much more direct evidence.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Because the split of the Republican electorate does not necessarily indicate the extent of Republican defections come November

 My point being that among a divided electorate, McCain commanded substantially more southern support than Mitt.

It stands to reason that as a candidate, McCain received weak Southern support - which reflects what we saw with Obama in North Carolina and Virginia - states that were stronger for McCain than otherwise, but weaker overall and vulnerable to Obama.

Romney's got to worry about shoring up the south - the states that are likely to go for him are Obama's weakest states. Romney being weak among the South puts South Carolina, GA, Tennessee and Alabama in play, and possibly Mississippi. I expect Obama to sweep the south vs
Romney.

I really don't understand why you would look at this instead of polls.  Polls have much more direct evidence.

Polls at this point aren't very accurate. Especially since the republican primary is still going on.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I understand your argument.  The historical substantiation for it is very weak.  Defections happen, but they generally have a pretty marginal effect on the electorate...and defections often don't work quite the way you're suggesting they can be expected to.

Why would the current polls underestimate defections among Santorum voters, versus the eventual General results?  After the primary events, you expect Republican voters to be less unified?

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Why would the current polls underestimate defections among Santorum voters, versus the eventual General results?  After the primary events, you expect Republican voters to be less unified?

I expect a shift of about 5 points from R to D if Romney is the nominee in the South. That's enough to make everything there interesting, and NC to go from tossup to weak lock for Obama.

I don't get 'weak lock' and O+6,7 is stronger than 'lean Obama'.

If I'm Obama and Romney is the nom, I put 100 percent of my money in congressional and senate races.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Why would the current polls underestimate defections among Santorum voters, versus the eventual General results?  After the primary events, you expect Republican voters to be less unified?

I expect a shift of about 5 points from R to D if Romney is the nominee in the South. That's enough to make everything there interesting, and NC to go from tossup to weak lock for Obama.

I don't get 'weak lock' and O+6,7 is stronger than 'lean Obama'.

That seems wishful, and I don't see any basis for the claim beyond intuition, but best of luck on it.

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

Romney being weak among the South puts South Carolina, GA, Tennessee and Alabama in play, and possibly Mississippi. I expect Obama to sweep the south vs
Romney.

[inexperienced]I think you're underestimating the hatred that the South feels for Obama.[/inexperienced]