PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Romney wipes out Santorum's lead

[Tender Branson]

30% Santorum
28% Romney

"In February, Santorum led Romney 45% to 16% , the poll said."

No numbers for Paul and Gingrich in the press report.

The poll surveyed 505 Pennsylvania Republican registered voters and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Santorum did best in central and western Pennsylvania and Romney polled better in the southeastern and northeastern parts of the state. Almost a quarter of voters polled said they were undecided.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/world/2012/03/28/19559046.html

[redcommander]

How reliable are they with polling?

[Tender Branson]

How reliable are they with polling?

F&M was really bad in 2010, they predicted Toomey by 8 and Corbett by 16. Toomey won by only 2 and Corbett by 9 or so.

In 2008, 2006 and 2004 though they were really good, predicting Hillary by 8 (she won by 9), Obama by 13 (he won by 11).

In 2006, they had Casey winning by 15 (he won by 17) and in 2004 they had Kerry winning by 5 (he won by 3).

[Jayhawker]

Was it their poll also that had Santorum leading 45-16? Because that's great news for Romney if he turned a 29 point lead for Santorum into a 2 point lead for Santorum in a matter of a month.

[Tender Branson]

Was it their poll also that had Santorum leading 45-16? Because that's great news for Romney if he turned a 29 point lead for Santorum into a 2 point lead for Santorum in a matter of a month.

Yes:

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb12_1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Just found the complete results of the new poll:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/images/video/2012_pdfs/0328stgpoll.pdf

[Keystone Phil]

F&M has a weird history and I know someone that was polled later in the evening over the weekend (and it isn't an automated poll like PPP which I imagine would be more bearable for people). Not sure if that would skew the results. And, as always, they show a very high number of undecided voters and higher than usual margin of error.

[J. J.]

F & M is one of the better polls for PA.  They do not push and get a lot of undecideds, which, this far out, can have an effect.

That said, I think PA is tightening.

[Chareth Cutestory]

Oh, snap! As hit or miss as they are, this is pretty extreme regardless.

[Keystone Phil]

No doubt that it's questioning but I don't think it's down to two points.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

What if Santorum ends up losing by 17% to Romney?

[Likely Voter]

The Romney campaign has already said they are going to try for a knock out punch by winning every state on the 24th, including PA. It might be worth it to pour a ton of money into PA to crush Santorum in hopes that an April sweep would finally end things (and so they can avoid having to spend money fighting in May and June)

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Santorum is pretty much done.  Unless he can pull off a win in WI, that's a sign that he's lost his steam.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220120325070

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

My advice to Rick, sit down with your top campaign advisors and with your family, have a frank and open discussion of where your campaign now stands in light of the new data in Pennsylvania, and with the realization that Mitt is going to win this contest, think if you want to have a future in the Republican Party, whether you want to be known as a spoiler in the election or a contributor to victory, devise a strategy and time frame in order to make a graceful exit from the race.

Don't drag this exercise in futility out any longer.  Help unite Republicans behind Romney, not divide them.  Help Romney defeat Obama in November, not hinder him.  Help Republicans keep the House and make gains in the Senate, not risk losses in both.

The party, and the nation, will thank you.

[J. J.]

My advice to Rick, sit down with your top campaign advisors and with your family, have a frank and open discussion of where your campaign now stands in light of the new data in Pennsylvania, and with the realization that Mitt is going to win this contest, think if you want to have a future in the Republican Party, whether you want to be known as a spoiler in the election or a contributor to victory, devise a strategy and time frame in order to make a graceful exit from the race.

Well, I wouldn't be doing that on the basis of one poll.

I think that Santorum should realize several things however:

1.  If he is looking for a big delegate haul in PA, think again.

2.  If he expecting the delegate count to be closer by the end of April, think again.

3.  If he is expecting a gigantic win in PA, that will buoy his candidacy, he better be prepared for the possibility that will not happen.  Romney got 72% of the vote in his home state;  Gingrich got 47%, and never won again.  Those will be the yardsticks that Santorum will be measured against in PA.

[J. J.]

Santorum gets into it with pollster Madonna, and loses:

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/04/santorum_calls_out_pollster_po.html

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Santorum gets into it with pollster Madonna, and loses:

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/04/santorum_calls_out_pollster_po.html

TOUCHE

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Given the Apr 4 PPP polling showing Romney leading Santorum by 5%, I rather think this Franklin & Marshall poll was bang on at the time.

[jmc247]

Given the Apr 4 PPP polling showing Romney leading Santorum by 5%, I rather think this Franklin & Marshall poll was bang on at the time.

PA is a state that has been shown time and time again to be responsive to national momentum so yes I think this poll was fine.