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Author Topic: MD-Rasmussen: Romney ahead by a Illinois-like margin  (Read 1520 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 29, 2012, 11:33:29 am »

Maryland GOP: Romney 45%, Santorum 28%, Gingrich 12%, Paul 7%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/maryland/2012_maryland_republican_primary
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2012, 04:26:06 pm »
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That's much bigger than the Illinois margin was.
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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2012, 05:01:48 pm »
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That's much bigger than the Illinois margin was.

Substantially, but I'd like to see PPP.
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« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2012, 08:58:07 pm »
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That's much bigger than the Illinois margin was.

When you adjust for the Sean Trende demographics, it is about 4 points ahead of the model, which was exactly how Romney ran in Illinois - about 4 points ahead of the model, which I hypothesized was due to the Gingrich collapse. But in LA, Mittens ran about 5 points below the model, maybe due to the Cajun = white Catholics thing, or simply a flaw in the model, or Mittens had a generic down-tick in the aftermath of etch a sketch. I don't have a clue.
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« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2012, 11:38:43 pm »
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Cheesy
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2012, 12:46:28 pm »
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Wow, that's not impressive for Romney.

Also shouldn't this be an LA like margin for Romney in MD?
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2012, 01:10:13 pm »
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Wow, that's not impressive for Romney.

Also shouldn't this be an LA like margin for Romney in MD?

Why do you think that?  Like Torie mentions, this is a slight overperformance of the Sean Trende demographic analysis.  And the Romney ad onslaught hasn't begun, I assume.
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2012, 01:49:30 pm »
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Quote
Why do you think that?  Like Torie mentions, this is a slight overperformance of the Sean Trende demographic analysis.  And the Romney ad onslaught hasn't begun, I assume.

I had MD at 50+ Romney.
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2012, 03:56:04 pm »
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Why do you think that?  Like Torie mentions, this is a slight overperformance of the Sean Trende demographic analysis.  And the Romney ad onslaught hasn't begun, I assume.

I had MD at 50+ Romney.

It could still happen.

Early PPP info from their twitter account about their polling samples today.

Quote
Only real suspense in Maryland looks like whether Romney can get over 50%- my guess is yes. 25+ point victory quite possible.

We're seeing Romney up by a wider margin in Wisconsin than the polls to date as well. Tuesday looks like a blood bath.

My guess is that in Maryland the numbers we see for Newt and Paul in current polling won't hold up and alot of them will break where the momentum in the race is going... that being towards Romney.
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2012, 04:56:06 pm »
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Perhaps the only suspense in MD, is whether Santorum can secure 3 delegates by carrying the Eastern Shore CD.

As to Wisconsin, due to the way the CD's are drawn (the new CD's are not much different than the old ones for purposes of this exercise, with most of the action being exchanging territory between the two CD's Huckabee barely carried), it looks like Santorum if Mittens carries the state, will be leashed to carrying but two CD's, getting six delegates. So it looks like Santorum's take next Tuesday will be either 6 or 9 delegates, with Mittens getting everything else, including the DC delegates of course.


« Last Edit: March 31, 2012, 04:58:39 pm by Torie »Logged
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2012, 04:58:13 pm »
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Neat, good find Torie! Always good to raid delegates.

And the jinx doesn't hurt either. :p
« Last Edit: March 31, 2012, 05:01:11 pm by Ben Kenobi »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2012, 04:59:46 pm »
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Neat, good find Torie! Always good to raid delegates.

Raid?  Is that a synonym for "win" here?  Smiley
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2012, 05:02:24 pm »
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Well I saw the Maryland comments and not the Wisconsin comments. Bah.
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2012, 05:52:04 pm »
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Well I saw the Maryland comments and not the Wisconsin comments. Bah.

Oh I get it now. But I think I will need to take those 3 delegates back out of play in MD. MD-01 was substantially redrawn, and maybe made more Santorum friendly as the Pub pack CD, but he has a long way to go - a long, long way. Huckabee's best CD, MD-06, has been gutted, and is now much more of a Mittens demographic than it was - much more. Sorry about that.


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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2012, 06:33:56 pm »
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I would expect the majority of Republicans in MD-06 to still be in Western Maryland. Montgomery County is obviously going to go for Romney, but there are only 120,000 registered Republicans in the entire county.
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2012, 07:43:33 pm »
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Oh I get it now. But I think I will need to take those 3 delegates back out of play in MD. MD-01 was substantially redrawn, and maybe made more Santorum friendly as the Pub pack CD, but he has a long way to go - a long, long way. Huckabee's best CD, MD-06, has been gutted, and is now much more of a Mittens demographic than it was - much more. Sorry about that.

So, Santorum has no certain CD's from Maryland?
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2012, 07:49:02 pm »
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I would expect the majority of Republicans in MD-06 to still be in Western Maryland. Montgomery County is obviously going to go for Romney, but there are only 120,000 registered Republicans in the entire county.

About half the population of the old MD-06 has been moved into Montgomery County, which McCain carried over Huckabee by a 41 point margin. I don't think so, even if Montco is lighter on Pubs.  It may be more Santorum than the state as a whole, but not by nearly enough. Also presumably the most pro Huckabee parts of Frederick were also removed from MD-06.  I suspect it will be close to the state average actually.
 
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2012, 07:50:56 pm »
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Oh I get it now. But I think I will need to take those 3 delegates back out of play in MD. MD-01 was substantially redrawn, and maybe made more Santorum friendly as the Pub pack CD, but he has a long way to go - a long, long way. Huckabee's best CD, MD-06, has been gutted, and is now much more of a Mittens demographic than it was - much more. Sorry about that.

So, Santorum has no certain CD's from Maryland?

If Mitten carries MD by say 15 or more points, Santorum is certain to lose them all. Probably a 10 point margin is enough to take them all out of play, but of that I am less certain.
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2012, 07:54:12 pm »
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Oh I get it now. But I think I will need to take those 3 delegates back out of play in MD. MD-01 was substantially redrawn, and maybe made more Santorum friendly as the Pub pack CD, but he has a long way to go - a long, long way. Huckabee's best CD, MD-06, has been gutted, and is now much more of a Mittens demographic than it was - much more. Sorry about that.

So, Santorum has no certain CD's from Maryland?

If Mitten carries MD by say 15 or more points, Santorum is certain to lose them all. Probably a 10 point margin is enough to take them all out of play, but of that I am less certain.

Thanks, given Santorum is investing virtually all his time and effort into Wisconsin and how favorable Maryland already is to Romney demographically I think a more then 15 point spread is likely.
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