If the SCOTUS rules Obamacare unconstitutional...

[7,052,770]

I'm also not convinced that Scalia (and possibly Thomas, who's unreadable on this particular subject at the moment because of how profound his dereliction of duty habit gets during oral argument) won't find that the Anti-Injunction Act applies.

If I understand correctly, there are three issues:

1.  They can't sue until the paying the penalty.

2.  The mandate is unconstitutional.

3.  The whole act is unconstitutional.

There might be a "moving majority" on all these issues.

For example:

#1. 1-8, with Thomas in the minority.

#2. 6-3, with Ginsburg, Sotomayor, and Kagan in the minority.

#3.  5-4, as Stevens casting the deciding vote.

I could easily see something like this (though not necessarily voting this way).

If the four "liberals" realize the mandate is going down but Thomas will vote to wait til 2015, why wouldn't they join him and live to fight another day?

[Sbane]

The truth is that nobody knows what impact it might have. The only other remotely similar situation was in 1936 when the conservatives in SCOTUS had struck down a number of FDR's New Deal laws.

Everything depends on who wins the message war. At another time, running against SCOTUS would have been political suicide. But nowadays, after Bush v. Gore, Citizens United, etc., 75% of Americans believe that the Justices decide more on partisan basis rather than legal one (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/supreme-court-seen-influenced-by-politics-in-health-care-ruling.html). So there is fertile ground there for Obama and the Democrats to run against a Supreme Court that has essentially become an unofficial branch of the Republican party.   

They can run on it but who are they going to win?  With a roughly 35-25-40 split in this country, politically (left-center-right), I don't see how running against a conservative court wins elections.  I think folks on the left continually overestimate the power of the left's message.  Without translating it into something meaningful, it's just politics and most people tune that sht out.  I think a lot of people will be thanking SCOTUS for striking it down.

Independents hold in even lower regard SCOTUS than Democrats in the poll I linked.

And I don't think that the parents who will see their kids kicked out of their insurance or the seniors who will fall again in the donut hole will be especially thankful towards the court, regardless the ideology.

Kids won't be kicked off of insurance.  The age 26 thing is actually a net win for insurers, as those are healthy bodies.

And how do you figure that? If the entire law is struck, which might happen if the Supreme Court feels lazy, kids will be kicked off of their insurance.

[Mr. Morden]

#3.  5-4, as Stevens casting the deciding vote.

Stevens hasn't been on the court for two years.

[J. J.]

Surely Kennedy or Roberts, not Stevens, as the deciding vote in issue 3?

I drew a blank on Kennedy, for some reason.

[J. J.]

If the four "liberals" realize the mandate is going down but Thomas will vote to wait til 2015, why wouldn't they join him and live to fight another day?

Because it is not a liberal/conservative thing.

[Beet]

The way Congress works now and has worked forever you can't get anything done without backroom deals. Even if you tried to pass Medicare for all, you'd need backroom deals to get it done.

The grass is always greener on the other side. Everything looks shiny from a distance. Try actually doing it and see where it gets you. ACA is our best shot. It took our political system 100 years to produce this. 100 years. To have it struck down by five unelected, partisan men would be a travesty.

No, actually the ACA was our best shot at achieving universal health care while maintaining a predominately private insurance market.  With the individual mandate gone, that will leave only one alternative to bring health care costs under control (and they have to be, one way or another): single-payer.  

The tea party isn't going to start falling all over itself for socialized medicine if the National Review/Bob Dole plan is struck down. They'll come up with some other bullshyte, or simply oppose universal coverage, period.

[Wisconsin+17]

Right, that's because people having rejected a quarter pounder with cheese, actually want a double quarter pounder with cheese.

Isn't this the Obama doctrine? If the policy crashes and burns in flames - double down?

[Frodo]

The way Congress works now and has worked forever you can't get anything done without backroom deals. Even if you tried to pass Medicare for all, you'd need backroom deals to get it done.

The grass is always greener on the other side. Everything looks shiny from a distance. Try actually doing it and see where it gets you. ACA is our best shot. It took our political system 100 years to produce this. 100 years. To have it struck down by five unelected, partisan men would be a travesty.

No, actually the ACA was our best shot at achieving universal health care while maintaining a predominately private insurance market.  With the individual mandate gone, that will leave only one alternative to bring health care costs under control (and they have to be, one way or another): single-payer.  

The tea party isn't going to start falling all over itself for socialized medicine if the National Review/Bob Dole plan is struck down. They'll come up with some other bullshyte, or simply oppose universal coverage, period.

Beet, I don't know if you know this, but the Tea Party Republicans are going to oppose everything we as Democrats propose -even if the idea is their own.  Surely this episode with what they call 'Obamacare' should persuade you on the futility of compromise with foes who don't believe in the concept and who keep moving the goal-posts during negotiations but then wind up voting against the final product anyway.  We might as well advocate a solution that at least we believe in wholeheartedly and would be willing to do the footwork to get it passed in its entirety (un-watered down, in other words), not just in the halls of Congress, but more importantly among Americans on Main Street.  The first step is to stop being scared of what the other side might say about it.  

[Wisconsin+17]

Man, I could really go for a double quarterpounder right about now.

[7,052,770]

Republicans convince Obama to incorporate their ideas into his health care plan and delete some of his own.  Then they 180 and relentlessly bash the plan.

I hope Obama has learned his lesson about trying to reach across the aisle.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Republicans convince Obama to incorporate their ideas into his health care plan and delete some of his own.  Then they 180 and relentlessly bash the plan.

I hope Obama has learned his lesson about trying to reach across the aisle.

By "across the aisle," do you mean Blue Dogs or Republicans from two decades ago?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Did Republicans not from two decades ago in fact bother to tender any ideas? I certainly don't remember their doing so.

[pbrower2a]

Single-payer was the ideal and the most practical solution. "Medicare for all" answers every need except for the continuing cash-cow profits and executive salaries of the medical insurance racket.