Census: Massive population growth in Pakistan !!!

[Tender Branson]

Pakistan population increased by 46.9% between 1998 and 2011

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's population increased by 46.9 per cent between 1998 and 2011 while Balochistan province witnessed the highest increase in population and Punjab the lowest, according to the preliminary results of the country's latest census.

Households witnessed an increase of 50.4 per cent since 2011 and the population increased from 130,857,717 in 1998 to 192,288,944 in 2011, The News daily quoted preliminary results as showing.

The results did not include three districts of Balochistan, South Waziristan Agency and the regions of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

However, with the inclusion of the population of PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, the population would touch 197,361,691 in 2011, as against 134,714,017 in 1998, marking an increase of 46.5 per cent.

The highest increase in population was witnessed in Balochistan, followed by Sindh, the semi-autonomous tribal areas, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the federal capital, while Punjab witnessed the lowest increase in population when compared to the three other provinces.

In terms of percentage, the highest increase of 139. 3 per cent was witnessed in Balochistan (from 5,501,164 to 13,162,222), followed by Sindh, where the population increased by 81.5 per cent (from 30,439,893 to 55,245,497).

The population of the Federally Administered Tribal areas increased by 62.1 per cent (from 2,746,490 to 4,452,913), Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa by 51.6 per cent (from 17,743,645 to 26,896,829), Islamabad by 43 per cent (from 805,235 to 1,151,868) while the population of Punjab witnessed the lowest increase of 24.1 per cent (from 73,621,290 to 91,379,615).

The population of PoK increased by just 1.54 per cent from 2,972,501 in 1998 to 3,631,224 in 2001, whereas the population of Gilgit-Baltistan increased by 63. 1 per cent from 883,799 to 1,441,523.

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa accounted for 13.99 per cent of the total population of Pakistan in 2011, while 2.32 per cent live in the tribal areas, 47.52 per cent in Punjab, 28.73 per cent in Sindh, 6.85 per cent in Balochistan and 0.60 per cent in Islamabad.

According to the data, the average household size has decreased from 6.9 in 1998 to 6.8 in 2011.

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-03-29/pakistan/31253998_1_population-gilgit-baltistan-balochistan

Probably including massive fraud (over or undercounts). Remember that Bin Laden's compound was visited by Census takers, but the people inside were not counted ...

It also means that Pakistan has overtaken Brazil in terms of population.

[Tender Branson]

Something must be wrong here.

Why would Pakistan's population grow by 3% annually between 1998 and 2011 when India's population only grew by 1.6% annually between 2001 and 2011 ?

Either massive overcounting, or double counting, or Pakistan is really so poor that people want to have as many kids as in sub-Sahara Africa ...

[Tender Branson]

Something must be wrong here.

Why would Pakistan's population grow by 3% annually between 1998 and 2011 when India's population only grew by 1.6% annually between 2001 and 2011 ?

Either massive overcounting, or double counting, or Pakistan is really so poor that people want to have as many kids as in sub-Sahara Africa ...

Cultural differences - Muslims have larger families.

I know, but that cannot make up the difference.

I've been looking at India's Census data from 2001 and 2011 and even the Muslim regions of India that border Pakistan did not have more than 2% annual growth between 2001 and 2011.

And yet Pakistan has 3% annual growth ? That's really strange.

Another possibility could be that the 1998 Census was the flawed one and the 2011 Census is the correct (?) one ...

[Tender Branson]

the Muslim regions of India that border Pakistan

Uh... the Muslim regions of India do not border Pakistan. The areas of India that border Pakistan are the ones that were ethnically cleansed of Muslims. Unless you're thinking of Kashmir.

Pakistan's annual growth rate has remained broadly unchanged census-to-census except for a ridiculous 3.8% pa peak during the 60s.

Yeah, Kashmir. It only grew by 2% between 2001 and 2011.

Between the 1981 Census and the 1998 Census, Pakistan's annual growth rate was 2.7% - and yet in the period from 1998 to 2011 it has accelerated to 3% annually ? Hard to believe.

[Tender Branson]

Exactly nothing has been going right for Pakistan in the past four or five decades, no new wealth whatsoever is being created (except mangoes. Yeah, getting quality sweet yellow mangoes into Europe is a relatively new development and Pakistan is where they come from), yet somehow enough comes in that people do not starve. Why should people's attitudes towards procreation change?

People's attitudes towards procreation seems to change only slowly in Pakistan if we can believe these numbers. Internet and cell phone use usually have an impact in reducing population growth in other countries, but there are only 20 million internet users in Pakistan so far and probably a huge majority of them are males because the wives are either illiterate or they are not allowed to use the internet. But nonetheless, 3% annual growth would make Pakistan one of the fastest growing big countries on the planet, even when growth is down in other poor countries.

Therefore I think it's more likely that the 1998 Census was really flawed and undercounted people, so that the actual number in 1998 was more like 140 million instead of 131 million.

That would increase the 1981-1998 annual growth rate and reduce the 1998-2011 rate to 2.5% annually.

[Tender Branson]

If this continues, Pakistan might have about 250 million people by 2020.

300 by 2030, 350 by 2040 and 400 by 2050.

Which might be the year when it overtakes the US in terms of population.

Or even earlier ...

[Tender Branson]

What's also amazing (or worrying ?):

If we assume that Pakistan now really has 200 million people and still grows by 3% each year, that would add 6 million people each year.

China, on the other hand, grows by 6.4 million people anymore each year (+0.45%), despite being 7-times as big as Pakistan.

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that Pakistan growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was 1.84%.  Pakistan's population growth is on the downswing, so scenarios of 400 million people crowding around the Indus river in 2050 are rather unrealistic.

If we believe the Census numbers, growth was 3% annually from 1998 to 2011.