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Author Topic: what did New York do to lose five seats in 1980?  (Read 1045 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: April 01, 2012, 02:02:44 am »
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I've just been astonished how you could lose that many seats. No other state has ever come close to losing that many in a single decade. You almost have to try hard to lose that many seats. The governors of that era (Rocky and Carey) were fairly popular.

I can see how areas like Buffalo would lose population since it's frigid and boring but most of the heavy underpopulated seats were in the NYC Metro. In New York City it isn't as cold as other parts of the northeast and there is stuff to do. The only severely underpopulated upstate district was the 37th (Nowak) which had 360,405 people per the 1980 census.

All the other underpopulated districts were in metro NY:

NY 12 (Chisholm) 320,886
NY 14 (Richmond) 364,356
NY 21 (Garcia) 233,787
NY 19 (Rangel) 371,614
« Last Edit: April 01, 2012, 02:12:27 am by Atari Democrat »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2012, 02:32:02 am »
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« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2012, 05:06:14 am »
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The 21st was the South Bronx district. What was its population in 1970?
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« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2012, 06:41:10 am »
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The population dropped from 18,236,967 in 1970 to 17,558,072 which means a 3.72% loss. However, as the US population had grown by 11.59% in the meantime, the relative loss was impressive : 13.72%. NY had 39 EVs, and 13.72% of 39 is around 5.

Note it's easy for big States to lose a lot of seats, because even a small % loss results in a high raw loss. Compare with South Dakota, which, despite losing 7.2% of its population in 1940, didn't lose a single seat. Conversely, big States gain far more seats when their population growth is higher than the national gorwth.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2012, 04:49:50 pm »
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The 21st was the South Bronx district. What was its population in 1970?

The 1970 population was 462,073 so the population was basically cut in half during the 1970s.
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2012, 05:04:21 pm »
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« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2012, 05:05:39 pm »
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2012, 06:42:48 pm »
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urban flight

an example of urban areas that lost people

population   1970         1980           loss
Brooklyn    2,602,012   2,231,028   370,984
Bronx         1,471,701  1,168,972   302,729
Manhattan 1,539,233  1,428,285   110,948
Queens      1,986,473  1,891,325   95,148
Nassau Co  1,428,080  1,321,582  106,498
Yonkers      204,297      195,351      8,946
Mount Vernon 72,778   66,713       6,065
New Rochelle 75,385   70,794         4,591
White Plains 50,346     46,999        3,347
Poughkeepsie 32,029  29,757        2,272
Middletown   22,607     21,454       1,153
Kingston        25,544    24,481       1,063
Peekskill      19,283       18,236      1,047
Rye             15,869        15,083      786
Beacon          13,255    12,937        318
Buffalo         462,768    357,870     104,898
Niagara Falls 85,615     71,384       14,231
Lackawanna  28,657     22,701       5,956
Jamestown   39,795      35,775        4,020
Tonawanda  21,898      18,693        3,205
Dunkirk          16,855     15,310       1,545
Lockport        25,399    24,844          555
N Tonawanda 36,012   35,760          252
Rochester  296,233       241,741     54,492
Corning      15,792         12,953       2,839
Hornell       12,144         10,234       1,910
Albany        115,781     101,727      14,054
Schenectady 77,958     67,972        9,986
Troy            62,918       56,638         6,280
Rensselaer 10,136        9,047         1,089
Watervliet  12,404       11,354         1,050
Syracuse     197,297     170,105     27,192
Utica             91,611     75,632        15,979
Binghamton 64,123       55,860       8,263
Rome          50,148        43,826       6,322
Elmira         39,945        35,327      4,618
Watertown 30,787       27,861       2,926
Newburgh   26,219         23,438      2,781
Ogdensburg 14,554      12,375      2,179
Auburn        34,599         32,548     2,051
Oswego      20,913       19,793       1,120
Oneonta    16,030         14,933       1,097
Oneida        11,658       10,810        848
Batavia       17,338        16,703        635
total loss of selected citys 1,318,268
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2012, 07:35:21 pm »
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what's interesting is that even Nassau County lost population. Wasn't this an area of the postwar boom in home construction a la Levittown?
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« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2012, 08:08:10 pm »
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NYC pretty much hit its low in the 70's. My parents left then, and they say it's gotten better since then.
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« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2012, 08:23:17 pm »
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I've just been astonished how you could lose that many seats. No other state has ever come close to losing that many in a single decade. You almost have to try hard to lose that many seats. The governors of that era (Rocky and Carey) were fairly popular.

I can see how areas like Buffalo would lose population since it's frigid and boring but most of the heavy underpopulated seats were in the NYC Metro. In New York City it isn't as cold as other parts of the northeast and there is stuff to do. The only severely underpopulated upstate district was the 37th (Nowak) which had 360,405 people per the 1980 census.

All the other underpopulated districts were in metro NY:

NY 12 (Chisholm) 320,886
NY 14 (Richmond) 364,356
NY 21 (Garcia) 233,787
NY 19 (Rangel) 371,614

Well genius, all you had to do was look at the census and see that NY's population plunged in the 1970s.  Not shocking at all
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« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2012, 08:44:47 pm »
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what's interesting is that even Nassau County lost population. Wasn't this an area of the postwar boom in home construction a la Levittown?

Nassau County's land filled up before 1980, and by that year, many of the baby boomers of the large families of the 1950s had grown up and left their parents behind.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2012, 10:32:02 pm »
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Rent control? Baby boom kids left the nest?
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« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2012, 10:46:25 pm »
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I've just been astonished how you could lose that many seats. No other state has ever come close to losing that many in a single decade. You almost have to try hard to lose that many seats. The governors of that era (Rocky and Carey) were fairly popular.

I can see how areas like Buffalo would lose population since it's frigid and boring but most of the heavy underpopulated seats were in the NYC Metro. In New York City it isn't as cold as other parts of the northeast and there is stuff to do. The only severely underpopulated upstate district was the 37th (Nowak) which had 360,405 people per the 1980 census.

All the other underpopulated districts were in metro NY:

NY 12 (Chisholm) 320,886
NY 14 (Richmond) 364,356
NY 21 (Garcia) 233,787
NY 19 (Rangel) 371,614

Well genius, all you had to do was look at the census and see that NY's population plunged in the 1970s.  Not shocking at all

Well genius, all you had to do is realize that he knows that. He wanted to know why. No need to be a a-hole about..
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« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2012, 11:46:16 pm »
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what's interesting is that even Nassau County lost population. Wasn't this an area of the postwar boom in home construction a la Levittown?
You end up with unusual age patterns.   From 1960-1970, Suffolk grew by 67%, while Nassau grew 10%.   Nassau was getting filled up.  Levittown was almost stagnant.

In 1970, Nassau males 45-54 outnumbered males 25-34 by 74%.  It was somewhat less pronounced among females 45-54 (48%).   Males 55-59 outnumbered females 55-59, by 3%; while in the 25-34 range, females outnumbered males by 21%.   So there is probably a combination of effects of different ages between grooms and brides; divorce; second marriages.

By 1980 the lack of persons of child-bearing age plus the baby bust are profound.  In Nassau, the ratio of graduating seniors to first graders is around 2 to 1.

Children 5-9 declined by over 40% between 1970 and 1980.  The fastest growing population was actually 25-34, as the children of the post-war boom come of age; plus you may have a new generation moving out from Queens and Brooklyn as the first owners of the homes are reaching retirement and downsizing or moving to Florida.   But these new homeowners aren't having children at anywhere near the rate of the earlier generation.

There are big drops in the 35-54 age brackets (20%) as the first generation ages, while those 55-64 increase by around 20%.

0-4  29%,30% decline
5-9  41%,43% decline
10-14 32%,33% decline
15-24 5% increase, 3% decline.
25-34 44%, 27% increase.
35-44 20%, 21% decrease.
45-54 22%, 13% decrease.
55-64 30%, 33% increase
65-74 32%, 16% increase

By 1990, you finish up the big drop in children and you're seeing the child-bearing adult group filling up, but not having as many children.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2012, 12:17:00 am »
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Rent control? Baby boom kids left the nest?

You take farm land and build a bunch of houses, and you are going to get a bunch of people in their 20's and early 30's.   If they have children, it is a toddler.   While an apartment is OK for a baby or toddler, not so much for older children, and you are concerned about the schools.

10 years later, and you have parents in their 30s, and a bunch of grade-school age children.  Few of the houses are sold.   There are some divorces, and perhaps the largest families with 6 or more children buy a bigger house, but there isn't much opportunity for newly formed families.

20 years later, and you have parents in their 40s, and early 50s and they've finished up having children and the oldest children are going off to college.  There isn't a market for apartments.

30 years later and the grade schools are depopulating.  Some of the houses are becoming available, as the original owners are retiring and moving to Florida, or moving to condos or townhouses, which may be built as developers start finding smaller areas to build on.

Between 1970 and 1980, Nassau saw massive drops in young children; some drop in late teenagers as the youngest children of the earliest settlers reached high school.  There was actually a pretty big increase in persons in their 20s, as all the original owners had aged way past that (in 1970 the largest age cohort was 45-54).  So in the 70s, at least some of the children of the settlers were sticking around - but not having as many children, and also having them later.

But there were big drops in the 35-54 population, as the settlers aged, and increases in the older population.

Most of the population drop was due to children not being replaced, while the distribution of the adult population was changing.
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2012, 03:09:39 am »
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Well genius, all you had to do was look at the census and see that NY's population plunged in the 1970s.  Not shocking at all

Well genius, all you had to do is realize that he knows that. He wanted to know why. No need to be a a-hole about..

Well genius, you aren't allowed to call another poster a genius.
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« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2012, 12:04:56 pm »
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Rent control? Baby boom kids left the nest?

You take farm land and build a bunch of houses, and you are going to get a bunch of people in their 20's and early 30's.   If they have children, it is a toddler.   While an apartment is OK for a baby or toddler, not so much for older children, and you are concerned about the schools.

10 years later, and you have parents in their 30s, and a bunch of grade-school age children.  Few of the houses are sold.   There are some divorces, and perhaps the largest families with 6 or more children buy a bigger house, but there isn't much opportunity for newly formed families.

20 years later, and you have parents in their 40s, and early 50s and they've finished up having children and the oldest children are going off to college.  There isn't a market for apartments.

30 years later and the grade schools are depopulating.  Some of the houses are becoming available, as the original owners are retiring and moving to Florida, or moving to condos or townhouses, which may be built as developers start finding smaller areas to build on.

Between 1970 and 1980, Nassau saw massive drops in young children; some drop in late teenagers as the youngest children of the earliest settlers reached high school.  There was actually a pretty big increase in persons in their 20s, as all the original owners had aged way past that (in 1970 the largest age cohort was 45-54).  So in the 70s, at least some of the children of the settlers were sticking around - but not having as many children, and also having them later.

But there were big drops in the 35-54 population, as the settlers aged, and increases in the older population.

Most of the population drop was due to children not being replaced, while the distribution of the adult population was changing.

Total population is the number of housing units multiplied by the average number of person per household [plus homeless people.] Nassau suffered the combined effects of the ending of the build out, and the drop of birthrates. But, New York state as a whole suffered a decline in population more than the nation's. Presumably, the New Yorkers in their 20's could have lived in another county, or new housing could have been constructed farther out from Manhattan.

One explanation is the build out started to shift to New Jersey, Connecticut and, even Pennsylvania. Another explanation is that the number of housing units fell into disrepair at a greater rate than they were rehabilitated.  A third explanation is that the fertility of recent immigrants fell more than the native population shrinking the average household size in immigrant "gateways" like NYC more than the national average. A fourth explanation is that the number of jobs declined in New York state. The young population moved to states with jobs [Texas for instance], and, started their families there. As a state with above average immigration from other countries, New York state ought to have grown faster than other states, all things else equal. Obviously, they weren't.
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« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2012, 05:15:59 pm »
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Most of the population drop was due to children not being replaced, while the distribution of the adult population was changing.
Total population is the number of housing units multiplied by the average number of person per household [plus homeless people.] Nassau suffered the combined effects of the ending of the build out, and the drop of birthrates. But, New York state as a whole suffered a decline in population more than the nation's. Presumably, the New Yorkers in their 20's could have lived in another county, or new housing could have been constructed farther out from Manhattan.
Most of the decline in Nassau County in 1980 was among children.  It was precipitous, with a 40% decline in 5-9 YO.

The population between 20-34 was increasing (44% among 25-34 males; 27% among 25-34 females).  This would be children from the early settlers sticking around, or a new group moving out from Queens and Brooklyn.  But housing would be limited.   It takes a while for apartments and condos to be built in an area where everyone's dream was to escape the tenements.  But the base population in 1970 in these age groups was low, since the original settlers were now in middle age.

So while between 1970 and 1980 the male 25-34 population increased by 44%; the male 35-44 population decreased by 20%.

The drop in the Nassau County population (10%) was due to the lack of new housing, and the rapid development 30 years earlier, with a side effect of the end of the baby boom.
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