WI PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Romney Leads by 7%; Very Strong Among Early Voters

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-04-01

Summary:

Romney:	43%
Santorum:	36%
Paul:	11%
Gingrich:	8%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Q2 Have you already cast your ballot for President,

or do you plan to vote on election day?

Already voted.................................................. 7%

Plan to vote on election day............................ 93%

Q3 (Early voters:) Did you vote for Newt Gingrich,

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 12%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 11%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 56%

Rick Santorum................................................ 21%

Q4 (Election day/not sure voters:) The Republican

candidates for President are Newt Gingrich,

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. If

the election was today, who would you vote

for?

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 7%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 11%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

Rick Santorum................................................ 37%

Someone else/Not sure .................................. 2%

Q5 (Combined Horse Race, Q3 and Q4)

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 11%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

Rick Santorum................................................ 36%

Someone else/Not sure .................................. 2%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If Romney does end up pulling through with a win here, that'll pretty much guarantee Romney as the nominee.

[SPQR]

Don't see how Romney can lose this.

[Miles]

I'm not ruling out Santorum, but if Romney wins here, I think he'll pretty much seal the deal.

[Sbane]

Agree with those above. Even a 5 point win would indicate Romney sealing the deal. of course we kind of already knew that.

[argentarius]

I don't read into early voter numbers, if they believe in a candidate enough to vote for them early it's not like they were going to change their mind on election day.

[jmc247]

I don't read into early voter numbers, if they believe in a candidate enough to vote for them early it's not like they were going to change their mind on election day.

The early vote numbers have been a pretty good sign on who will win any given state. It hasn't been so good at guessing the overall spread though.

[You kip if you want to...]

I reckon Rick could pull even, considering how much pollsters have been understating him.

[jmc247]

I reckon Rick could pull even, considering how much pollsters have been understating him.

In Southern states it's been true not mid Western states.

PPP predicted Romney would lose MI by one point and he won it by 3.2 points. The evangelicals in southern states who many times don't have land line phones throw off polling in that region.

[Gustaf]

Wisconsin amusingly seems to have a bit of a track record of deciding nomination processes. As I recall, it sealed it for Kerry in 2004 and for Obama in 2008.

[Torie]

Wisconsin amusingly seems to have a bit of a track record of deciding nomination processes. As I recall, it sealed it for Kerry in 2004 and for Obama in 2008.

And it forced LBJ to eschew running for re-election.