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| | |-+  2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  2000 pre-election polls
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Author Topic: 2000 pre-election polls  (Read 5748 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« on: April 02, 2012, 02:06:57 am »
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If anyone wants to go back 12 years in time and have a look at all the polls from each state (Presidential, Senate, House) - this is really a great site:

http://www3.nationaljournal.com/members/polltrack/2000/races

Enjoy !

Smiley
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Miles
MilesC56
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E: -1.03, S: 5.74

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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2012, 03:48:15 am »
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Great find.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2012, 04:48:12 am »
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I'm creating 2 maps, using Mason-Dixon first (they polled many states) and then using an average of the last polls in each state.

The map will be "toss-up" (Bush+4 to Gore+4), "lean" (Bush/Gore by 4-10%, and "strong" (Bush/Gore by 10% or more).

Or should I use Bush/Gore by up to 3 for "tossup" or Bush/Gore by up to 5 ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 34989
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2012, 04:54:05 am »
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Probably stick with Dave's model:

0-2% tossup
2-5% slight
5-10% lean
10%+ strong
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 34989
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2012, 05:53:05 am »
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This is what I got when averaging the last polls in each state before the 2000 election:



Oregon was actually "slight Bush".
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 34989
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Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2012, 07:24:49 am »
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These are the final Mason-Dixon polls of 2000 (all conducted in late October):

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Miles
MilesC56
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Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: 5.74

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« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2012, 07:36:15 am »
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Mason-Dixon had DE as slight Bush!?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 34989
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

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« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2012, 08:01:25 am »
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Mason-Dixon had DE as slight Bush!?

Yepp. Outlier, probably.
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2012, 03:22:36 pm »
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http://www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm

Polling Report still has just about every 2000 head-to-head poll still up. If you dig around you can see that Gore was beating McCain in the early 2000. Was it based solely on name recognition? Probably.
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LiberalJunkie
LiberalJunkie99
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2012, 11:48:25 pm »
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All the American Research Group Polls lots from early to mid September so it's kind of a weird map.

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