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Author Topic: PA: "Democratic hack" institute Quinnipiac has Santorum up by only 6  (Read 1004 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 03, 2012, 05:21:07 am »

41% Santorum (+5)
35% Romney (+13)
10% Paul (-2)
  7% Gingrich (-1)
  6% Undecided

From March 27 - April 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 647 likely Repub1ican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1731
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2012, 05:27:22 am »

Quinnipiac has a good track record so far in FL and MI and I trust them over a so called "Wenzel" poll any day.

Also, these 2-6 point leads are much closer than Santorum's leads before MI and OH.

Romney could still buy Pennsylvania.
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jmc247
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« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2012, 06:08:31 am »
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Quinnipiac has a good track record so far in FL and MI and I trust them over a so called "Wenzel" poll any day.

Also, these 2-6 point leads are much closer than Santorum's leads before MI and OH.

Romney could still buy Pennsylvania.

Just wait until Romney's victories on Tuesday and the subsequent deluge of endorsements from party bosses the NYTimes says is on its way after an expected Romney win in WI.

By this time next week the 'democratic hack' polling will show Santorum down a fair bit in his home state before any ad bombing of the state.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2012, 09:55:53 am »
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...Santorum never called Quinnipiac a Democratic hack institute, just so you know.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2012, 09:55:54 am »
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Before we talk about Santorum's leads in previous states like Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, let's recognize that support there was softer. This is obviously going to be one of the states where the people that say they support Rick are very unlikely to change their mind. This is also a reason why the Mitt ad blitz won't be as effective. I saw in one of the polls that over 30% are saying they could change their mind. I doubt that most of those are current Santorum backers.

Also worth pointing out that after two weeks of little coverage or coverage about how the race is "over," Santorum still leads. The talk about a flood of endorsements after Wisconsin is hype. Who else is out there that would be newsworthy? In PA, a Toomey endorsement for Romney would be embarrassing (and a dose of karma for Rick. I'd obviously be disappointed in Toomey but whatever) and might energize Romney forces but that's the only big ticket endorsement. I think he, like Corbett, is staying out until after PA (though Toomey is much more likely to issue an endorsement for Mitt since Corbett and Santorum are connected). The bottom line is that there aren't big national endorsers that remain undeclared.
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« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2012, 11:19:34 am »
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Momentum will only grow for Romney from now until the Pennsylvania primary. Plus, Romney has a good shot at winning a majority of delegates here and will also have a big night considering the other states that are voting, so any small momentum Santorum may get from narrowly winning his homestate will be offset and then some my Romney's victories.
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« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2012, 01:33:35 pm »
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Before we talk about Santorum's leads in previous states like Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, let's recognize that support there was softer. This is obviously going to be one of the states where the people that say they support Rick are very unlikely to change their mind. This is also a reason why the Mitt ad blitz won't be as effective. I saw in one of the polls that over 30% are saying they could change their mind. I doubt that most of those are current Santorum backers.

Also worth pointing out that after two weeks of little coverage or coverage about how the race is "over," Santorum still leads. The talk about a flood of endorsements after Wisconsin is hype. Who else is out there that would be newsworthy? In PA, a Toomey endorsement for Romney would be embarrassing (and a dose of karma for Rick. I'd obviously be disappointed in Toomey but whatever) and might energize Romney forces but that's the only big ticket endorsement. I think he, like Corbett, is staying out until after PA (though Toomey is much more likely to issue an endorsement for Mitt since Corbett and Santorum are connected). The bottom line is that there aren't big national endorsers that remain undeclared.

Jim DeMint, GWB II, Mitch McConnell (formal endorsment), Scott Walker, John Kasich, Mike Pence, Michelle Bachmann, Dick Cheney, Steve King, Rudy Giuliani, Allen West...
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« Reply #7 on: April 03, 2012, 02:01:35 pm »
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Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220120401015

(And that's a GREAT example of what a poll SHOULD look like when it's entered! Wink ).
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: April 03, 2012, 02:22:24 pm »
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Before we talk about Santorum's leads in previous states like Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, let's recognize that support there was softer. This is obviously going to be one of the states where the people that say they support Rick are very unlikely to change their mind. This is also a reason why the Mitt ad blitz won't be as effective. I saw in one of the polls that over 30% are saying they could change their mind. I doubt that most of those are current Santorum backers.

Also worth pointing out that after two weeks of little coverage or coverage about how the race is "over," Santorum still leads. The talk about a flood of endorsements after Wisconsin is hype. Who else is out there that would be newsworthy? In PA, a Toomey endorsement for Romney would be embarrassing (and a dose of karma for Rick. I'd obviously be disappointed in Toomey but whatever) and might energize Romney forces but that's the only big ticket endorsement. I think he, like Corbett, is staying out until after PA (though Toomey is much more likely to issue an endorsement for Mitt since Corbett and Santorum are connected). The bottom line is that there aren't big national endorsers that remain undeclared.

Jim DeMint, GWB II, Mitch McConnell (formal endorsment), Scott Walker, John Kasich, Mike Pence, Michelle Bachmann, Dick Cheney, Steve King, Rudy Giuliani, Allen West...

Everyone looks at DeMint's comments this far as an endorsement. Over half of the rest of those endorsements would mean little to nothing.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: April 03, 2012, 02:31:58 pm »
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F & M is probably better in PA than Quinnipiac.  I expect that this race is tightening in PA and a "Beauty Contest" win for Santorum is now in jeopardy.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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