April 3 states (WI, MD, DC) results thread

[Frodo]

So, with Wisconsin decided, it is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt that Gordon Gecko is the undisputed nominee of the Republican Party.

Be proud, Republicans.    

[Sam Spade]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

You can't compare the performance of a Southern social conservative vs. a Northern social conservative generally.  Additionally, McCain's support is not coterminous with Romney's support, and a certain section of the Republican base stopped paying attention a long time ago, which distorts things.

[ag]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

Actually, given that Green has just reported (and, considering the content of this report) it might, indeed, be 6.

[Torie]

So, with Wisconsin decided, it is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt that Gordon Gecko is the undisputed nominee of the Republican Party.

Be proud, Republicans.    

You pick the best out of what is available. Actually I would prefer someone even more boring than Mittens - Portman. I get my excitement out of life from places elsewhere than from out of a politician's mouth. I like calm, quiet and cerebral politicians myself - all 10 of them or so out there on the fruited plain.

[TJ in Wisco]

So, with Wisconsin decided, it is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt that Gordon Gecko is the undisputed nominee of the Republican Party.

Be proud, Republicans.    

You pick the best out of what is available. Actually I would prefer someone even more boring than Mittens - Portman. I get my excitement out of life from places elsewhere than from out of a politician's mouth. I like calm, quiet and cerebral politicians myself - all 10 of them or so out there on the fruited plain.

If you had gotten your wish for Portman this nomination would have been wrapped up long before now.

[Sam Spade]

I will also mention one other thing, though I know not why since I cannot benefit from it.

Mitt's speech making, while full of a lot of platitudes, is getting much better and less monotonous as time goes on.  FWIW, he's starting to remind me of how Bush 41 talked, and actually resembles him in a way too.

[Torie]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

You can't compare the performance of a Southern social conservative vs. a Northern social conservative generally.  Additionally, McCain's support is not coterminous with Romney's support, and a certain section of the Republican base stopped paying attention a long time ago, which distorts things.

Yes, I know, and I try to "correct" for that, but in this case, my "correction" failed - miserably.

[muon2]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

Actually, given that Green has just reported (and, considering the content of this report) it might, indeed, be 6.

I think it will come down to how the vote splits in Rock.

[ag]

Actually, there is a sudden Romney dump in Dane, which puts it fairly solidly into Romney column. Looks like CD 2 might go R, in the end.

[ag]

In case you all wonder, at this point Waukesha has still only reported 21% (the state as a whole is on 80%). Charming methodology.

[cinyc]

Actually, there is a sudden Romney dump in Dane, which puts it fairly solidly into Romney column. Looks like CD 2 might go R, in the end.

Romney is up by 764 votes in the AP's WI-02 tally.

[Torie]

yawn

You tried to tell us, Sam! You really did!

Quick on the trigger tonight, aren't we?

Of more import, is that I was off in my projection for Mittens delegates tonight by 3 delegates, or maybe even 6, and I was just so confident. That sucks.

Actually, given that Green has just reported (and, considering the content of this report) it might, indeed, be 6.

I think it will come down to how the vote splits in Rock.

As to WI-02, this County might decide it. And the Rock margin for Mittens (about 8 points so far) given the skin tight numbers elsewhere, seems to me to be pretty decisive absent an Iowa Mittens implosion. Rock by the way was where the GOP was founded in 1855 or whatever - in Ripon (the GOP was founded as a Yankee enterprise). It's a Yankee county in a state dominated by Germans and Scandinavians, and as a Yankee county, like most Yankee places, has trended Dem in the last two decades as the South came to have far more influence in the GOP.

[cinyc]

Final DC:

Romney 3,122 (70.2%)
Paul 534 (12.0%)
Gingrich 479 (10.8%)
Huntsman 312 (7.0%)
   
Over 52,000 votes were cast in the uncontested Democratic primary, versus less than 4,500 in the DC Republican primary.

[Torie]

I wonder how much influence Ryan had in all of this. In his homeland, I suspect he is rather intensely admired among Pubs, and Mittens just romped in WI-01 - and perhaps beyond his borders to the Milwaukee metro area as a whole. Absent that, the numbers for WI as a whole might have been really tight. This is one case where an endorsement from someone who has a lot of real substance upstairs, may have been a substantial influence. I wonder how much the media will pick up on this aspect.

[Gass3268]

As to WI-02, this County might decide it. And the Rock margin for Mittens (about 8 points so far) given the skin tight numbers elsewhere, seems to me to be pretty decisive absent an Iowa Mittens implosion. Rock by the way was where the GOP was founded in 1855 or whatever - in Ripon (the GOP was founded as a Yankee enterprise). It's a Yankee county in a state dominated by Germans and Scandinavians, and as a Yankee county, like most Yankee places, has trended Dem in the last two decades as the South came to have far more influence in the GOP.

This is all right except Ripon is in Fond du Lac county.

[Nutmeg]

Final DC:

Romney 3,122 (70.2%)
Paul 534 (12.0%)
Gingrich 479 (10.8%)
Huntsman 312 (7.0%)
   
Over 52,000 votes were cast in the uncontested Democratic primary, versus less than 4,500 in the DC Republican primary.

The de facto general elections for local races were today as well in the form of the Democratic primaries for these races.

[Torie]

As to WI-02, this County might decide it. And the Rock margin for Mittens (about 8 points so far) given the skin tight numbers elsewhere, seems to me to be pretty decisive absent an Iowa Mittens implosion. Rock by the way was where the GOP was founded in 1855 or whatever - in Ripon (the GOP was founded as a Yankee enterprise). It's a Yankee county in a state dominated by Germans and Scandinavians, and as a Yankee county, like most Yankee places, has trended Dem in the last two decades as the South came to have far more influence in the GOP.

This is all right except Ripon is in Fond du Lac county.

Oh dear! I hate when "facts" degrade a good narrative!    Anyway, Rock is Yankee land. I know I have that one right.

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder how much influence Ryan had in all of this. In his homeland, I suspect he is intensely admired among Pubs, and Mittens just romped in WI-01. Absent that, the numbers for WI as a whole might have been really tight.

Romney was ahead before said endorsement, and they had been publicly close for months. However Ryan's enthusiastic (by far the most enthusiastic of all Romney's conservative endorsees both politically and especially personally) endorsement probably sealed the deal. The race for Veep is close, and it's probably Ryan's for the asking for this and other reasons. Depends if he and Romney decide he's more valuable where he is.

[Smash255]

I wonder how much influence Ryan had in all of this. In his homeland, I suspect he is rather intensely admired among Pubs, and Mittens just romped in WI-01 - and perhaps beyond his borders to the Milwaukee metro area as a whole. Absent that, the numbers for WI as a whole might have been really tight. This is one case where an endorsement from someone who has a lot of real substance upstairs, may have been a substantial influence. I wonder how much the media will pick up on this aspect.

WI-1 and WI-5 were districts McCain also romped in, while granted you can't always lump McCain's areas and Mitt's into one they do share some similarities.  With or without Ryan, Santorum was always going to do better in the more rural areas of the state and Mitt was going to do better in the suburban areas.

[Torie]

Does anywhere care to explain this lacunae? I mean, I understand how Dane swung its way, but Eau Claire swinging the other way, with Huckabee voters going Mittens in large numbers in Huck's premier county?  Why?

[jmc247]

Ryan was clearly the most enthusiastic backer of the past two weeks and I am certain that helped somewhat, but I don't think it was what did it. I almost pity what Santorum is going to face over the next 24 days until his home state votes. Its clear the party is going to try to call this thing.

Will Santorum picked up any delegates from Maryand?

[Torie]

Ryan was clearly the most enthusiastic backer of the past two weeks and I am certain that helped somewhat, but I don't think it was what did it. I almost pity what Santorum is going to face over the next 24 days until his home state votes. Its clear the party is going to try to call this thing.

Will Santorum picked up any delegates from Maryand?

Mittens won everything in MD.

[rbt48]

Based on the precincts that are still out, Romney should just crack 50% in Maryland.

[Beet]

Even counting a home-state boost, the returns in northern and western Maryland don't bode well for Santorum.

[rbt48]

It must have been the more suburban, less radical parts of Dane County, WI, that came in at the end to help Romney win the county.  I'm inferring that the cross-over Democratic voters for Santorum came from the more "progressive" parts of Madison and reported earlier.