Isn't being at 45 a bad sign for Obama? It isn't like he doesn't have name recognition. Undecideds tend to break 75to25 or more against an incumbent in the last several months.
Yes, I think it is. Nevertheless, the fools-gold aspect others mention above is a huge factor.. its his best prospect after IN-FL-NC-NH-OH to take something away from Obama08 (yes I think better than CO-NV-IA), and followed by MI, but still, its a risk to attend to PA or MI too much with time and money because those first five states listed are still better prospects.
Another way to put this is the PA/MI prospect is tantalizing, but difficult to act upon strongly given other pressures. We may look back in 2013 or so and say 'well had he only focused on PA and MI instead of OH and VA, he could've been president', but from 2012 perspective that would be a hazard whatever the polling.