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Author Topic: If only people under 30 voted  (Read 4841 times)
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jfern
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« on: January 12, 2005, 09:24:30 pm »
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This would have been the result.
That's supposed to be >=90% for DC

« Last Edit: January 12, 2005, 09:38:06 pm by jfern »Logged
A18
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« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2005, 09:27:57 pm »
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And if only people under 30 voted in 1980, Carter would have won by half a point. The fact that people vote for stupid candidates when they're young is not news to anyone.
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2005, 09:28:38 pm »
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Mind giving a source? MS is a really interesting result.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2005, 09:28:45 pm »
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And if only people under 30 voted in 1980, Carter would have won by half a point. The fact that people vote for stupid candidates when they're young is not news to anyone.

As opposed to voting for stupid candidates when they're old?
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2005, 09:29:41 pm »
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Mind giving a source? MS is a really interesting result.

Kerry won 63-37 there.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/MS/P/00/epolls.0.html
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A18
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2005, 09:30:01 pm »
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Old people voted for a stupid candidate in 2000, but they did pretty well this year.
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2005, 09:33:44 pm »
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I don't 100% trust these results. Why Mississippian youths would vote for Kerry by such a massive margin but Washingtonians by only 3 is confusing to me.
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2005, 09:38:57 pm »
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I don't 100% trust these results. Why Mississippian youths would vote for Kerry by such a massive margin but Washingtonians by only 3 is confusing to me.

I would wonder what the sampling size is for each individual state and what the subsample is.  There might be couple of outliers in there. 

Maine is odd too.
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2005, 09:39:33 pm »
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The youth vote is always heavily skewed towards the Democrats. Reagan won 1980 in a ten point landslide, and lost youth by a point.
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2005, 09:42:48 pm »
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I don't 100% trust these results. Why Mississippian youths would vote for Kerry by such a massive margin but Washingtonians by only 3 is confusing to me.

I would wonder what the sampling size is for each individual state and what the subsample is. There might be couple of outliers in there.

Maine is odd too.

Actually, I believe in MTV's Rock the Vote, more Republicans registered in Maine than Democrats. Mississippi was Democratic, though, I believe. It's quite weird.
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2005, 10:25:35 pm »
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...and if only blacks were allowed to vote Kerry has a 50 state sweep.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas.
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2005, 10:28:59 pm »
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...and if only blacks were allowed to vote Kerry has a 50 state sweep.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas.

Except Republicans, obviously. Smiley
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2005, 01:03:54 am »
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If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas.
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opebo
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2005, 04:41:41 am »
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...and if only blacks were allowed to vote Kerry has a 50 state sweep.


Not so farfetched - why just a few decades back only whites were allowed to vote!  The GOP really should push for the good old days, twould improve their electoral fortunes immensely.
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2005, 07:06:34 am »
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This would have been the result.
That's supposed to be >=90% for DC


I'm not sure about your line from Minnesota to Mississippi.
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« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2005, 09:37:21 am »
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only four states strike me as odd; AZ, NM, ME and MS. WV and MO are also a little odd, I had heard that MO youth was very strong GOP.
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« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2005, 01:55:48 pm »
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WV and MO are also a little odd, I had heard that MO youth was very strong GOP.

WV isn't strange, but I'd heard the same about MO so...
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #17 on: January 13, 2005, 03:26:06 pm »
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And if only people under 30 voted in 1980, Carter would have won by half a point. The fact that people vote for stupid candidates when they're young is not news to anyone.
i agree for 1984.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2005, 03:44:50 pm by math »Logged
A18
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« Reply #18 on: January 13, 2005, 03:32:27 pm »
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You are...agree...for...1984. Um, okay.

I have absolutely no clue what that means, but I'll pretend I do. Reagan did very well among 18-24 year olds, but he did worse than his national percentage with 25-29 year olds. It just depends, but Republicans generally do worse with younger people.
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« Reply #19 on: January 13, 2005, 04:02:38 pm »
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This would have been the result.
That's supposed to be >=90% for DC



Sure Colorado and not New Mexico would have gone to the Dems?
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« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2005, 04:22:49 pm »
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You are...agree...for...1984. Um, okay.

I have absolutely no clue what that means, but I'll pretend I do. Reagan did very well among 18-24 year olds, but he did worse than his national percentage with 25-29 year olds. It just depends, but Republicans generally do worse with younger people.
Thanks. you're too generous with a little French leftist...
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zachman
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« Reply #21 on: January 13, 2005, 05:02:39 pm »
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What were the youth vote results in Maine? I can't believe my eyes?
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jfern
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« Reply #22 on: January 13, 2005, 05:06:29 pm »
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What were the youth vote results in Maine? I can't believe my eyes?
Bush 50 Kerry 48

Kerry might have been able to win an elector.
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nclib
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« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2005, 06:59:38 pm »
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This would have been the result.
That's supposed to be >=90% for DC



How are you making these maps--the prediction pages appear to be closed.
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A18
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« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2005, 07:12:54 pm »
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He's not using the prediction pages.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/evcalc5.php?year=2004&pop_per=1
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