PA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Romney Leads Santorum, just within the MoE

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-04-04

Summary:

Romney:	42%
Santorum:	37%
Paul:	9%
Gingrich:	6%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Q2 The Republican candidates for President are

Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and

Rick Santorum. If the election was today, who

would you vote for?

Newt Gingrich ................................................. 6%

Ron Paul ......................................................... 9%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

Rick Santorum................................................ 37%

Someone else/Not sure .................................. 6%

[crypto-fascist superhero]

lol

[Keystone Phil]

Nah.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

[J. J.]

This could be an outlier.  While the polls are showing a tightening, this just seems like too massive a shift.

I'd like to see some other polls.

OTOH, if this is accurate, Santorum is in full collapse.  He's sinking faster than the Edmund Fitzgerald , if this is accurate.

[Nichlemn]

Intrade has Romney at 90% to win PA, though it's been seemingly overconfident before it's usually picked the winner.

Personally, I'm hoping for Santorum to lose by more than 18 points.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

This could be an outlier.  While the polls are showing a tightening, this just seems like too massive a shift.

I'd like to see some other polls.

OTOH, if this is accurate, Santorum is in full collapse.  He's sinking faster than the Edmund Fitzgerald , if this is accurate.

But it seems to me that a great many on this forum seem to put a lot of stock in PPP polling. 

[Tender Branson]

This could be an outlier.  While the polls are showing a tightening, this just seems like too massive a shift.

I'd like to see some other polls.

OTOH, if this is accurate, Santorum is in full collapse.  He's sinking faster than the Edmund Fitzgerald , if this is accurate.

But it seems to me that a great many on this forum seem to put a lot of stock in PPP polling. 

There's a resason for it:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=151643.msg3253143#msg3253143



PS: Could still be an outlier though, I remember that PPP blew the 2008 DEM Primary in PA.

[jmc247]

Some state have been shown to be very resistant to national momentum. PA is not one of those states and I knew that before seeing this poll.

Some states are simply demographically bad for Romney. PA is not one of those states.

Some states are retail states that are won and lost by who runs around and meets the most people and some states are media market states that retail politics is less important in and what is more important is the ability to better saturate the airwaves with ads. PA is a media market state.

If Romney wants to win Pennsylvania I could see him doing so in a landslide because of the above factors.

Paul is just there to raise awareness of his pet political issues. Newt knows he is at the end of his political career so he doesn't have much to lose by staying in, Santorum believes he has a long time left to go in politics which is why Santorum has the most to lose by staying in. The RNC has lost its patience with the race and will not take kindly to Santorum trying to fight to the convention.

[Tender Branson]

I feel a little bit sorry for Sarah Maria. She might cry again in about 3 weeks ...

Another note: This poll was taken yesterday evening, so a Romney-surge from his wins in WI, MD and DC could be reflected in this poll already.

[You kip if you want to...]

Okay, this is over, drop out Rick. Don't embarrasse yourself (again).

Genuinely believe he'd be a better nominee than Romney, but whatever (and i'm not trollin').

[J. J.]

This could be an outlier.  While the polls are showing a tightening, this just seems like too massive a shift.

I'd like to see some other polls.

OTOH, if this is accurate, Santorum is in full collapse.  He's sinking faster than the Edmund Fitzgerald , if this is accurate.

But it seems to me that a great many on this forum seem to put a lot of stock in PPP polling. 

I do too, but there is the corollary to J. J.'s First Rule to Elections:

Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly.

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Nah.

First stage:  Denial 

[Keystone Phil]

Nah.

First stage:  Denial 

I know. We've been telling you for months that you have real issues and your refusal to act puts you firmly is this stage.

[J. J.]

Nah.

First stage:  Denial 

I know. We've been telling you for months that you have real issues and your refusal to act puts you firmly is this stage.

I wouldn't call it denial.  But polls are not good for Santorum.  He has weakened, and may be collapsing. 

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Even IF Santorum wins Pennsylvania, after you factor in the 3 WTA states, Romney only needs 37% of the remaining delegates (assuming the unpledged delegates vote the way they're "supposed" to... not 100% accurate, but close enough).  The point is, with Romney leading in CA, NY, and not far behind in TX and PA, it'll take a miracle for him not to be the nominee mathematically before convention.