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Author Topic: NY-Quinnipiac: Obama up by a lot  (Read 633 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 05, 2012, 05:59:36 am »

New York State voters approve 56 - 38 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his best score in almost a year and up from a 50 - 46 percent approval rating February 15.

Today, women approve of the president 59 - 34 percent, up from 52 - 42 percent in February. Men approve 52 - 43 percent, up from a negative 46 - 49 percent. Independent voters split 45 - 45 percent, up from a negative 41 - 54 percent.

Obama leads Romney 56 - 33 percent and tops Santorum 59 - 30 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1733
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2012, 08:16:42 am »

Obama being at 60 or higher in CA, NY, MA and IL and leading in NV, NM, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA and FL definitely means that Obama is ahead by at least 5 right now nationally.

Don't know what Rasmussen wants to construct with showing Romney ahead by 3 in their daily tracking .... Huh
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2012, 09:53:29 pm »
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Obama being at 60 or higher in CA, NY, MA and IL and leading in NV, NM, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA and FL definitely means that Obama is ahead by at least 5 right now nationally.

Don't know what Rasmussen wants to construct with showing Romney ahead by 3 in their daily tracking .... Huh

He must have a Fox appearance coming up.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2012, 10:16:13 pm »
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Obama being at 60 or higher in CA, NY, MA and IL and leading in NV, NM, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA and FL definitely means that Obama is ahead by at least 5 right now nationally.

Don't know what Rasmussen wants to construct with showing Romney ahead by 3 in their daily tracking .... Huh


Maybe all the Plains and Southern states are >60% Romney.
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2012, 09:35:52 pm »
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Given that it's Romney, it's unlikely that he's seriously outperforming McCain in the Southern states.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2012, 11:04:13 pm »
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Rasmussen's Romney lead is simple to explain. They have this odd system of weighting by party ID where there's more Republicans than Democrats. The country almost always has a slight but clear Dem edge in party ID so naturally this shifts their results to make FOX news viewers happy.
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2012, 12:09:32 pm »
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Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620120402015
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2012, 12:18:44 pm »
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Rasmussen's Romney lead is simple to explain. They have this odd system of weighting by party ID where there's more Republicans than Democrats. The country almost always has a slight but clear Dem edge in party ID so naturally this shifts their results to make FOX news viewers happy.

He uses likely voters instead of registered voters.  More expensive, but more accurate.
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2012, 12:27:24 pm »
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No, it's not. His numbers are all over the place. This time, Obama is leading Romney 47 to 44. Just 3 days ago Romney was leading Obama by 2. What is accurate?
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2012, 01:04:21 pm »
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Rasmussen's Romney lead is simple to explain. They have this odd system of weighting by party ID where there's more Republicans than Democrats. The country almost always has a slight but clear Dem edge in party ID so naturally this shifts their results to make FOX news viewers happy.

He uses likely voters instead of registered voters.  More expensive, but more accurate.

Not at this point. Given than there is no Democrat primary, Democrats aren't concerned by the election yet, so, they appear unmotivated and unlikely to vote.

A likely voter screen is only more accurate starting September.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2012, 01:15:38 pm »
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Rasmussen's Romney lead is simple to explain. They have this odd system of weighting by party ID where there's more Republicans than Democrats. The country almost always has a slight but clear Dem edge in party ID so naturally this shifts their results to make FOX news viewers happy.

He uses likely voters instead of registered voters.  More expensive, but more accurate.

Not at this point. Given than there is no Democrat primary, Democrats aren't concerned by the election yet, so, they appear unmotivated and unlikely to vote.

A likely voter screen is only more accurate starting September.

   I'll be honest in that I have not personally sifted through and compared Rasmussen to others and cross-referenced actual results, but typically he uses likely voters AND typically that is a BETTER method.  It might not be right now, idk.   
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ajb
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2012, 08:31:20 pm »
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Rasmussen's Romney lead is simple to explain. They have this odd system of weighting by party ID where there's more Republicans than Democrats. The country almost always has a slight but clear Dem edge in party ID so naturally this shifts their results to make FOX news viewers happy.

He uses likely voters instead of registered voters.  More expensive, but more accurate.

Not at this point. Given than there is no Democrat primary, Democrats aren't concerned by the election yet, so, they appear unmotivated and unlikely to vote.

A likely voter screen is only more accurate starting September.

   I'll be honest in that I have not personally sifted through and compared Rasmussen to others and cross-referenced actual results, but typically he uses likely voters AND typically that is a BETTER method.  It might not be right now, idk.   

I think the rule of thumb is that Likely Voter models start to make sense around Labor Day, when most voters start to pay more attention.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2012, 01:10:56 pm »
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Yeah, "Likely Voters" becomes a better model as the election grows nearer because it becomes clearer and clearer who is actually, you know, likely to vote.
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It is very advisable to examine and dissect the men of science for once, since they for their part are quite accustomed to laying bold hands on everything in the world, even the most venerable things, and taking them to pieces.

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