IN-DePauw University/Howey Politics: Obama down 9 in first Indiana poll

[Tender Branson]

If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, he would lead the president by nine points (49%-40%) among Hoosier voters, whereas it’s a closer race with Santorum (46%-41%).  Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

With a 63% job approval rating among all voters, Mitch Daniels is among the most popular governors in the country (along with New Mexico’s Susana Martinez and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo).  The majority (53%) of all voters think the state is heading in the right direction, compared with 26% who think the country is. Just 39% approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President, which is worse than in private polling we conducted last summer.  Independents give Obama a 41% approval rating, compared with 62% for Governor Daniels.

http://howeypolitics.com/main.asp?SectionID=10&SubSectionID=278&ArticleID=7612

[Tender Branson]

Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

Wut ?

That would mean Obama leads by about 13 among Independents in Indiana !!!

That must be an abnormally GOP-leaning sample ... !!!

[tpfkaw]

Indiana is one of the most Republican states by partisan identification (and also there's the standard caveat about crosstabs).

[Tender Branson]

Indiana is one of the most Republican states by partisan identification (and also there's the standard caveat about crosstabs).

In 2008, Obama won IN Independents by 11 in a R+5 sample.

And now he's winning Independents by about 13, yet trailing by 9 overall.

I'm trying to calculate what kind of sample they might have used here ...

[cavalcade]

Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

Wut ?

That would mean Obama leads by about 13 among Independents in Indiana !!!

That must be an abnormally GOP-leaning sample ... !!!

6.5 point lead.

And I can see
- more Rs than Ds
- Romney doing better among Ds than Obama among Rs

But it's weird for Obama to be down 9 in IN and up 4-5 in OH.  Are Daniels/Kasich that popular/unpopular?

[tpfkaw]

Indiana is one of the most Republican states by partisan identification (and also there's the standard caveat about crosstabs).

In 2008, Obama won IN Independents by 11 in a R+5 sample.

And now he's winning Independents by about 13, yet trailing by 9 overall.

I'm trying to calculate what kind of sample they might have used here ...

In 2004 Indiana was R+14 by partisan identification.  2008 was obviously an anomaly, and now we have a reversion to the mean.

[Tender Branson]

Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

Wut ?

That would mean Obama leads by about 13 among Independents in Indiana !!!

That must be an abnormally GOP-leaning sample ... !!!

6.5 point lead.

And I can see
- more Rs than Ds
- Romney doing better among Ds than Obama among Rs

But it's weird for Obama to be down 9 in IN and up 4-5 in OH.  Are Daniels/Kasich that popular/unpopular?

6.5 lead ?

[Tender Branson]

Independent men lean toward Romney 46%-42%, but independent women back Obama 51%-34%.

Wut ?

That would mean Obama leads by about 13 among Independents in Indiana !!!

That must be an abnormally GOP-leaning sample ... !!!

6.5 point lead.

And I can see
- more Rs than Ds
- Romney doing better among Ds than Obama among Rs

But it's weird for Obama to be down 9 in IN and up 4-5 in OH.  Are Daniels/Kasich that popular/unpopular?

6.5 lead ?

Ah, I see. Didn't divide the 17-4 in half.

[Tender Branson]

So, Independents split 46.5 to 40.0 for Obama - if we assume that 50% of Independents are men and 50% women.

If we use a sample of 44% R, 34% D and 22% I - which is a mix of 2008 and 2004 exit poll data - the results would be:

50% Romney
40% Obama

using a 85-5 Romney win with Republicans and a 80-10 Obama win with Democrats.

[argentarius]

Even if this poll is a bit off, considering the pres is very high nationally and isn't doing well here, lean GOP. I'm putting this one in the same catgeory as Georgia/SC.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1820120327073

[pbrower2a]

Strange -- unless one has a "likely voters" screen that mirrors the 2010 election.  President Obama would not be re-elected with the 2010 electorate; he would lose such states as Michigan and Wisconsin. Aside from such states as Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming a Democrat rarely wins independents by 6.5% while losing the state.

Hoosier voters have long identified themselves as heavily R, and Indiana has been close in only two non-blowout Presidential elections since World War II: Truman almost won the state in 1948 and of course Obama won it in 2008. Indiana probably offers electoral votes in the 380 range.

If Richard Lugar wins the GOP nomination, then expect President Obama to have little for which to campaign in 2012 in Indiana.

[memphis]

Do people in Indiana not know that Hoosier is slang for white trash in other parts of the country? Or do they just not care?

[opebo]

Do people in Indiana not know that Hoosier is slang for white trash in other parts of the country? Or do they just not care?

The sort who would care fled already - typically in early adulthood.  Those who remain are already letting us know by staying that they just don't care (about anything really), so tolerating the name 'Hoosier' is just par for the course.

[Alcon]

Where's that county swing map of the U.S.?  I think it's very reasonable to argue that Obama had unusually soft support in Indiana.

[Eraserhead]

Definitely should be the first Obama '08 state to fall to the Republicans. Although Romney's lead seems pretty large considering that Obama is probably beating Romney nationally by about as much as he beat McCain by.

It's a uni poll anyway so whatever. Better than nothing, I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Definitely should be the first Obama '08 state to fall to the Republicans. Although Romney's lead seems pretty large considering that Obama is probably beating Romney nationally by about as much as he beat McCain by.

It's a uni poll anyway so whatever. Better than nothing, I guess.

Yeah.

As I've said before, I expected Romney to lead by 2-8 in the first IN polls, but we need at least 3 polls to see where IN stands right now, preferably one by Mason-Dixon. But Mason-Dixon only starts polling around the conventions.

In early 2008, there were also several polls that had McCain up by 10 in Indiana and Obama closed the gap later.

But as of now, probably "lean GOP", until we get a PPP, Mason-Dixon or SurveyUSA poll.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I remember that we did get an Indiana poll a while back and it showed pretty much the same result.

[Tender Branson]

I rememberr that we disd get an Indiana poll a while back and it showed pretty much the same result.

No, this is the 1st Indiana general election poll since November 2008.

[marvelrobbins]

Well most people have always thought Indiana would flip back to Republicans.

Romney Is going to need more good news elsewhere.

[Earthling]

Agreed. Ony if Obama has a good election night Indiana might fall for him again. But at this moment Obama being 9% down is not surprising.

[memphis]

Was there ever a consensus on how Obama won here in 2008? This is a state where the Dems are always destroyed in Presidential elections. His swing was ridiculous, even in unlikely rural areas.

[pbrower2a]

Was there ever a consensus on how Obama won here in 2008? This is a state where the Dems are always destroyed in Presidential elections. His swing was ridiculous, even in unlikely rural areas.

1. Barack Obama invested much time and effort in Indiana early to win the state's primary. He set up a good campaign apparatus early with the aid of lots of local people. The local people weren't going anywhere if Indiana was at all close.

2. As a Senator, Barack Obama was well known in parts of Indiana because he got coverage from Chicago media. Northwestern Indiana may be a dump, but it is part of the Chicago media market. 

3. Except for greater Indianapolis, Indiana media are either from another state (Chicago, Cincinnati, Dayton, Louisville) or bleed into another state (South Bend/Elkhart, Fort Wayne, Evansville, Terre Haute). Kentucky may have never been a target for the Obama campaign, but Michigan was close until late and Ohio was close throughout the election. Media buys in South Bend and Fort Wayne were necessary for reaching parts of Michigan and Ohio, respectively. Ohio remained close, so the Obama campaign was still making media buys in Cincinnati and Dayton. As Michigan became a sure thing the Obama campaign could move its funds for media time from Michigan to places where such buys seemed to have some value. The Obama campaign started buying media time in Indianapolis and added places like Evansville and Louisville as markets. His campaign was still buying media time in South Bend/Elkhart... but now to reach South Bend/Elkhart.   

4. Indiana is a tough state in which to campaign from afar. In the jet age, that makes Indiana a tough state in which to do a national campaign. The last Democrat before Obama to even get close in a non-blowout election was Harry Truman -- still in the age of rail travel (his famous Whistlestop tour). It is extremely difficult for a Democrat to campaign from a state that isn't a neighbor of Indiana because the logistics are so tough. Indiana was one of the worst states for JFK in 1960. Gore lost Indiana by 15%; Kerry lost it by 20%. Bill Clinton lost the state twice despite winning every surrounding state both times.  It's an easy state to concede even if it isn't particularly right-wing. If anyone could have won the state, it should have been Bill Clinton.

How important are logistics? Effective campaigning depends upon coordinating with media who want a story, arranging for mass audiences, and getting paraphernalia to the campaign events.

This time the state became a more difficult one for John McCain to campaign in than it was for Barack Obama.

5. Indiana got a double-whammy in 2008 from high energy prices (which make the RV trade more difficult) and a sudden contraction of credit (which makes big-ticket items like RVs difficult to buy). Republican pols got the fault for both being cozy with the energy industry (probably not culpable) and the financial meltdown (very culpable!). Indiana became available to a Democrat who campaigned seriously in Indiana.   

Indiana will be the easiest state that President Obama won in 2008 to concede. In 2008 he was campaigning from Illinois; in 2012 he won't be campaigning from Illinois. The 2012 election is likely to be very dull, so the media attention in Indiana will be elsewhere.  The only way in which President Obama campaigns extensively in Indiana is if the Republicans tea-party Senator Lugar into retirement, in which case the President might see a pickup for a Senate ally.  President Obama wins Indiana only if he wins about 400 electoral votes.  Paradoxically, improved conditions might work better for Republicans in Indiana.

Indiana will be a very difficult state for someone like Andrew Cuomo or Amy Klobuchar (my most likely picks for the 2016 Democratic nominee) to win unless the Republican party has itself melted down.

[The Mikado]

I don't think anyone seriously expected Indiana to stay in Obama's column.  Him winning it four years ago was a fluke to begin with.

[Holmes]

Do people in Indiana not know that Hoosier is slang for white trash in other parts of the country? Or do they just not care?

So? What do you want them to do, move? Vote differently?