U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar is in the most precarious position of his political career since autumn 1974 when he unsuccessfully challenged Democratic incumbent Birch Bayh. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll released today reveals Lugar with a 42-35% lead over Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, with the two evenly splitting the vote among the 72% of primary voters identifying with the GOP. It has prompted HPI to move this race into "tossup" from "Leans Lugar."
The poll by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, was conducted March 26-28 of 503 likely Republican primary voters and March 26 -27 of 503 likely Indiana general election voters. It has a +/-4.5% margin of error. The polling came after Lugar had experienced a terrible week. He took broadside headlines related to the residency issue in the week before the polling, with the Democratic Marion County Election Board denying the voting address he had used since joining the Senate in the late 70's. The three days of polling coincided with the beginning of a statewide Club for Growth TV assault ad branding Lugar as a big tax and spender who loves earmarks.
Sen. Lugar is confronted with a historic low 10% approval rating of Congress, according to the Howey/DePauw survey. A stunning 81% of those polled disapprove of Congress' actions. A recent Gallup national survey has Congressional approval at 12%. Howey/DePauw revealed that 26% of Hoosiers see the U.S. on the "right track" compared to 61% who see the nation on the "wrong track."
Lugar and Mourdock are evenly splitting the GOP vote. If Indiana did not have an open primary system, a record seventh term for Lugar would be doomed. In the Republican portion of Howey/DePauw, 72% identified themselves as Republican, 14% as independents/lean Republican and 14% as independents. When Howey/DePauw asked respondents "What candidate does this statement better describe Richard Lugar/Richard Mourdock," 36% said Lugar "shares my values" compared to 28% for Mourdock. "Is running a negative campaign" had 24% Mourdock and 15% Lugar, and "Will get things done" had a 10-point (40-30%) Lugar advantage. Essentially, the May 8 Republican primary has turned into a referendum on Lugar. Some 40% of Republican voters have no opinion of Mourdock, and another 17% have never heard of the two-term treasurer who led the GOP ticket in his 2010 reelection bid. Among likely Republican voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Lugar and 31% unfavorable, compared to Mourdock with a 24% favorable to 18% unfavorable.
The silver lining for Lugar, who is facing an onslaught of special interest money on behalf of Mourdock from the National Rifle Association, Club for Growth and FreedomWorks, is that in a head-to-head matchup with Donnelly among general election voters, Lugar leads 50-29% and has strong support in Marion County. In a head-to-head between Mourdock and Donnelly, the race is tied at 35% with the Indianapolis support shifting away from the Republican. Another element is the endorsement of Gov. Mitch Daniels, who has a 63% approval rating (and 31% disapproving) from general election voters and an 86% approval from Republicans, according to Howey/DePauw. At a February fundraiser in Carmel, Daniels said of Lugar, "Indiana continues to be blessed by one of the greatest public servants not of our modern times, not of our state's history, but in American history - and it's not stretching the point. Dick Lugar is genuinely a great American as reflected in decades of spectacular service."
http://howeypolitics.com
