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| |-+  Presidential Election Trends (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King)
| | |-+  idaho...
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Question: will it be voting like oregon in 25 years?
yes   -2 (5.3%)
no   -25 (65.8%)
possible   -11 (28.9%)
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Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: idaho...  (Read 1248 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: April 06, 2012, 06:36:13 pm »
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option 3.
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Franzl
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« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2012, 06:40:46 pm »
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Not possible.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2012, 06:42:58 pm »
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Not possible.

okay maybe oregon 2012 is a stretch.

what about oregon circa 2000?
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wormyguy
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« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2012, 09:10:31 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
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LastVoter
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2012, 09:14:40 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2012, 09:17:22 pm by seatown »Logged
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Klecly
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2012, 11:54:00 pm »
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no lol.
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strangeland
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2012, 05:28:03 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2012, 05:48:15 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.

That's a given.  The over/under on Romney in Utah is 80%.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2012, 07:17:23 pm »
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lolno
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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2012, 07:33:16 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.

That's a given.  The over/under on Romney in Utah is 80%.
I think it might a little towards Romney with a slight mormon turnout increase and some identity swing mormons voting for Romney that voted for Obama, but I suspect 90% of Mormons are ideologically stable(at least based on the ones I met in Eastern Washington). Maybe 70%. I expect 2012>2016 swing to be bigger than 2004>2008 though.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 08:11:27 pm by seatown »Logged
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2012, 08:04:37 pm »
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The question is if it'll vote like Oregon, not Oregon 2012. So my answer is 'possible' if Idaho continues trending demcorat and OR trends republican.
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E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
LastVoter
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2012, 08:14:13 pm »
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The question is if it'll vote like Oregon, not Oregon 2012. So my answer is 'possible' if Idaho continues trending demcorat and OR trends republican.
It's really hard to see OR trending Republican, WA is possible though because Seattle Metro has less influence than Portland Metro does in their respective states, and Seattle Metro is a lot larger  so it's possible for the exurbs to go teahadist unlike in Portland.
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strangeland
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2012, 08:19:50 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.

That's a given.  The over/under on Romney in Utah is 80%.

Utah doesn't have that many Mormons.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2012, 08:52:08 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.

That's a given.  The over/under on Romney in Utah is 80%.

Utah doesn't have that many Mormons.

It will when they have 95% turnout.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2012, 08:53:04 pm »
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This thread is insane.
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« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2012, 08:59:58 pm »
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Lay off the crack WalterMitty.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2012, 10:00:39 pm »
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No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.

That's a given.  The over/under on Romney in Utah is 80%.

Utah doesn't have that many Mormons.

It will when they have 95% turnout.
Umm..
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2012, 05:52:55 am »
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Possible but not likely. -_-
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« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2012, 03:06:47 pm »
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Uh, Idaho is where many of the conservative Californians have moved. Not to mention, the presence of Mormons, loggers, miners, etc.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2012, 05:25:23 pm »
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I think Idaho could look a lot like Western Montana in a couple of decades...
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2012, 05:53:19 pm »
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Do you guys even know anything about Idaho outside of generalities? No, Idaho will never vote like Oregon. At the same time, it is certainly "trending" towards the Democrats as long as the Democrats keep the same building blocks of their coalition over the next few decades. The Latino population in Idaho is actually fairly average but their turnout levels are some of the lowest in the country. Once this changes, Nampa and Caldwell will become swingy suburbs (if you want to call them that, they're more like core cities that have been amalgamated into Boise overtime and attract working class and lower middle class residents). This also bodes true for Twin Falls to an extent and the outlying agricultural areas of the "Magic Valley".

The other trend, that if anything is accelerating, is the growth of Boise's urban professional and "alt" population. If you've ever been to Boise, you'd understand what I'm talking about: the city is distinctly different from other mid-sized inter-mountain west cities and its new residents reflect this. The core of the city and its outlying neighborhoods are more similar to Portland than Spokane. Chances are that Boise will continue to have increasing property values due to the increased desirability of living there (it's second only to Colorado when it comes to outdoorsy activities) and its attraction of new businesses. It will take a while for these trends to manifest themselves fully but Boise is an emerging latte liberal metropolis. Many of the old residents just don't realize it yet.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 06:08:46 pm by Ron Swanson »Logged



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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2012, 06:27:20 pm »
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This is why the US needs to separate, the progessives move to the nicest places and turn them to urban ruin. For all their talk of peace, they prefer drug empires to peaceful communities. But then again, this would never work since liberals have an obsession with controlling everyone else and everything they do.
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R2D2
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« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2012, 06:55:37 pm »
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This is why the US needs to separate, the progessives move to the nicest places and turn them to urban ruin. For all their talk of peace, they prefer drug empires to peaceful communities. But then again, this would never work since liberals have an obsession with controlling everyone else and everything they do.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_rehabilitation
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LastVoter
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« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2012, 07:35:21 pm »
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This is why the US needs to separate, the progessives move to the nicest places and turn them to urban ruin. For all their talk of peace, they prefer drug empires to peaceful communities. But then again, this would never work since liberals have an obsession with controlling everyone else and everything they do.
Do you usually hack or only occasionally?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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E: -10.00, S: -9.92

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« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2012, 10:47:12 pm »
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But then again, this would never work since liberals have an obsession with controlling everyone else and everything they do.

It wasn't liberals who recently tried to outlaw contraception.
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Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
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