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Poll
Question: will it be voting like oregon in 25 years?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
#3
possible
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: idaho...  (Read 3326 times)
LastVoter
seatown
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« on: April 06, 2012, 09:14:40 PM »
« edited: April 06, 2012, 09:17:22 PM by seatown »

No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2012, 07:33:16 PM »
« Edited: April 07, 2012, 08:11:27 PM by seatown »

No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.

That's a given.  The over/under on Romney in Utah is 80%.
I think it might a little towards Romney with a slight mormon turnout increase and some identity swing mormons voting for Romney that voted for Obama, but I suspect 90% of Mormons are ideologically stable(at least based on the ones I met in Eastern Washington). Maybe 70%. I expect 2012>2016 swing to be bigger than 2004>2008 though.
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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2012, 08:14:13 PM »

The question is if it'll vote like Oregon, not Oregon 2012. So my answer is 'possible' if Idaho continues trending demcorat and OR trends republican.
It's really hard to see OR trending Republican, WA is possible though because Seattle Metro has less influence than Portland Metro does in their respective states, and Seattle Metro is a lot larger  so it's possible for the exurbs to go teahadist unlike in Portland.
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LastVoter
seatown
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2012, 10:00:39 PM »

No.  It is more likely that Oregon will start voting like Idaho than vice versa.  (and neither is at all likely)
Urban growth boundary is not that effective...
I would say Utah will be voting like oregon 2012 in 25 years, SLC seems to attract Californians pretty well. Boise not so much, and North Idaho can't support enough population growth.
Voting like Colorado 2012 is a possibility in 25 years, but not Oregon 2012. Utah had one of the strongest trends to Obama in 2008, even though it was still one of McCain's best states. The real test this year will be to see if Romney breaks 70%.

That's a given.  The over/under on Romney in Utah is 80%.

Utah doesn't have that many Mormons.

It will when they have 95% turnout.
Umm..
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LastVoter
seatown
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Posts: 4,322
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« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2012, 07:35:21 PM »

This is why the US needs to separate, the progessives move to the nicest places and turn them to urban ruin. For all their talk of peace, they prefer drug empires to peaceful communities. But then again, this would never work since liberals have an obsession with controlling everyone else and everything they do.
Do you usually hack or only occasionally?
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