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Author Topic: Romney making a mega buy in PA.  (Read 1880 times)
Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #25 on: April 07, 2012, 09:57:59 pm »
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Ιf Romney had any class and wanted to show to Santorum that he respects him then he shouldn't contest Pennsylvania.
But we are talking about Romney here, a man who is unanimously hated be all the other 2008 and 2012 candidates.

My friend, Romney has, by many accounts, approximately 40% support in PA, and that will likely be growing.  Why would you want to deprive these people of having their opportunity to support Romney in the primary, while Santorum has been mean mouthing him for months now?

Santorum's the one who should not be contesting PA, by announcing his withdrawal from the race.

This may happen if there is some validity to the statement from Eraserhead that he expects Santorum to be withdrawing next week, based on what he's been hearing.  I do not know his sources.

Shut up moron.

Oh tut tut now.  Don't get your boxers in a knot. 

Resorting to personal attacks and name calling now are we?

Indeed.
Welcome to my ignore club, dickhead.

Hhhmmm, I don't know if I should be honored or..........most honored.  Smiley
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« Reply #26 on: April 08, 2012, 12:04:59 am »
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Romney should have at least waited a week or so and only then start this mega-ad-buy, if he has any courage, because Santorum is off the campaign trail and only concerned about his daughter. Romney is like someone trying to kill someone unarmed by shooting him in the back.
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« Reply #27 on: April 08, 2012, 01:04:41 am »
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Romney should have at least waited a week or so and only then start this mega-ad-buy, if he has any courage, because Santorum is off the campaign trail and only concerned about his daughter. Romney is like someone trying to kill someone unarmed by shooting him in the back.

He decided to take the weekend off for Easter. The ad buy happened before anything was announced about his daugher and it was almost certainly planned out much before then.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #28 on: April 08, 2012, 04:07:02 am »
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Ιf Romney had any class and wanted to show to Santorum that he respects him then he shouldn't contest Pennsylvania.
But we are talking about Romney here, a man who is unanimously hated be all the other 2008 and 2012 candidates.

lolwut. When was the last time a candidate chose not to contest a state that they otherwise had a strong chance of winning? And how is Romney so hated by his fellow candidates that he's been endorsed by at least four of them so far?

In 2004 neither Kerry, nor Edwards contested Vermont even though Howard Dean had already dropped out.

And who exactly are the four who endorsed Mitens? Only Hunstman did and since then he has all but rescinded his endorsement.
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« Reply #29 on: April 08, 2012, 04:51:27 am »
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In 2004 neither Kerry, nor Edwards contested Vermont even though Howard Dean had already dropped out.

I think there are some differences, including that it was a small state, on Super Tuesday and would be likely to go for Dean anyhow. All, for example, contested IA, even though it was Gephardt's home state.

Quote
And who exactly are the four who endorsed Mitens? Only Hunstman did and since then he has all but rescinded his endorsement.

Pawlenty was another; I really don't know if Trump should be considered one.  Perry and Cain endorsed Gingrich, and I can't think any think on any for Santorum.
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J. J.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #30 on: April 08, 2012, 05:29:14 am »
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I think there are some differences, including that it was a small state, on Super Tuesday and would be likely to go for Dean anyhow. All, for example, contested IA, even though it was Gephardt's home state.

JJ once again talking nonsense. Gephardt is from Missouri.


Pawlenty was another; I really don't know if Trump should be considered one.  Perry and Cain endorsed Gingrich, and I can't think any think on any for Santorum.

I forgot Pawlenty. How typical for his candidacy.

P.S. LOL Trump.
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« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2012, 05:55:11 am »
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The "small irrelevant state" part of his argument, though. That's not nonsense at all. Romney can't very well just concede all of PA's delegates to Santorum.
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« Reply #32 on: April 08, 2012, 06:10:44 am »
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The "small irrelevant state" part of his argument, though. That's not nonsense at all. Romney can't very well just concede all of PA's delegates to Santorum.


Romney will win Pennsylvania's delegates no matter what. As Phil has repeatedly explained he has the backing of the machine which essentially chooses them.
The primary is nothing more than a beauty contest.
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« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2012, 06:34:40 am »
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In 2004 neither Kerry, nor Edwards contested Vermont even though Howard Dean had already dropped out.

As Wikipedia (not always right but jibes with my memory) notes, Dean's victory in VT was actually a surprise. Most people thought it would go to Kerry (Edwards didn't bother to file there). There are actually a number of examples of candidates contesting their opponents' home states: Reagan '76 in MI, Reagan '80 in TX (he won it), Clinton '92 in CA (another win), Bush '00 and to a lesser extent Romney '08 in AZ. There was also that Rick Santorum guy who tried to win Romney's birth state some weeks back.
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« Reply #34 on: April 08, 2012, 08:06:02 am »
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In 2004 neither Kerry, nor Edwards contested Vermont even though Howard Dean had already dropped out.

As Wikipedia (not always right but jibes with my memory) notes, Dean's victory in VT was actually a surprise. Most people thought it would go to Kerry (Edwards didn't bother to file there). There are actually a number of examples of candidates contesting their opponents' home states: Reagan '76 in MI, Reagan '80 in TX (he won it), Clinton '92 in CA (another win), Bush '00 and to a lesser extent Romney '08 in AZ. There was also that Rick Santorum guy who tried to win Romney's birth state some weeks back.

With the exception of 1992, the primary was still competitive in all other cases. That's clearly not the case anymore this year.

Oh, and Michigan ain't Romney's home state.
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« Reply #35 on: April 08, 2012, 09:01:02 am »
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I think there are some differences, including that it was a small state, on Super Tuesday and would be likely to go for Dean anyhow. All, for example, contested IA, even though it was Gephardt's home state.

JJ once again talking nonsense. Gephardt is from Missouri.

Yet he was still very close to the area.  We also have Harkin in 1992.  Candidates do contest other candidates' home states, except in those cases where it looks impossible to win.  It isn't impossible for Mittens to win in PA, and may be probable, in terms of delegates.

Quote


I forgot Pawlenty. How typical for his candidacy.

P.S. LOL Trump.

Pawlenty was actually one of the more favored candidates last year at this time.  He lost the Ames straw poll and then pulled out.  Ironically, he might have been the most solid ABR candidate.
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J. J.

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« Reply #36 on: April 08, 2012, 10:22:21 am »
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Romney will win Pennsylvania's delegates no matter what. As Phil has repeatedly explained he has the backing of the machine which essentially chooses them.
The primary is nothing more than a beauty contest.

Romney can't get Santorum out of the race without a big victory in Texas or Pennsylvania. It's not about delegates at this point. Romney will get the magic number. It's about getting him to lose hope and get out ASAP which Romney needs to happen to start a full general election campaign. He can't ignore Santorum when he is calling him Mr. Etch a Sketch and attacking him at every turn. This isn't a Huckabee situation where Huck decided to stay in the race and run a positive campaign which didn't hurt McCain.

Romney needs to finish the GOP race quickly which he can do if he wins in Pennsylvania.
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« Reply #37 on: April 08, 2012, 10:35:02 am »
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Ιf Romney had any class and wanted to show to Santorum that he respects him then he shouldn't contest Pennsylvania.
But we are talking about Romney here, a man who is unanimously hated be all the other 2008 and 2012 candidates.

lolwut. When was the last time a candidate chose not to contest a state that they otherwise had a strong chance of winning? And how is Romney so hated by his fellow candidates that he's been endorsed by at least four of them so far?

In 2004 neither Kerry, nor Edwards contested Vermont even though Howard Dean had already dropped out.
Exactly - Howard Dean had already dropped out, so it didn't matter too much if he won - it wasn't going to give him any momentum. However, Rick Santorum is still in the race and at least says that he can win. Winning Pennsylvania would probably give him the momentum to at least stay in until June. A loss in Pennsylvania could result in the end of his campaign, which would allow Romney to start fully focusing on Obama a month sooner.
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« Reply #38 on: April 08, 2012, 11:24:58 am »
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The "small irrelevant state" part of his argument, though. That's not nonsense at all. Romney can't very well just concede all of PA's delegates to Santorum.


People still aren't acknowledging the point that I (and even J.J.) made a billion times about how the delegates are directly elected, unpledged and are mostly machine types that will fall in line with the frontrunner? Ok. Cool.

On a related note, if PA still goes to Rick, he should get the statewide delegates that the party leadership choose but even that isn't guaranteed. I guess they'd still give them to him though.
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« Reply #39 on: April 08, 2012, 02:20:35 pm »
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In 2004 neither Kerry, nor Edwards contested Vermont even though Howard Dean had already dropped out.

As Wikipedia (not always right but jibes with my memory) notes, Dean's victory in VT was actually a surprise. Most people thought it would go to Kerry (Edwards didn't bother to file there). There are actually a number of examples of candidates contesting their opponents' home states: Reagan '76 in MI, Reagan '80 in TX (he won it), Clinton '92 in CA (another win), Bush '00 and to a lesser extent Romney '08 in AZ. There was also that Rick Santorum guy who tried to win Romney's birth state some weeks back.

With the exception of 1992, the primary was still competitive in all other cases. That's clearly not the case anymore this year.

Oh, and Michigan ain't Romney's home state.

1980 wasn't any more competitive by the time of the Texas primary (early May) than this race is now. And come on, lots of people were describing MI as Romney's home state when it looked like he might lose it. The broader point is there's not any tradition of laying off an opponent's home state when it looks like you have a shot there, even in essentially settled races like '80 and '92.
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« Reply #40 on: April 08, 2012, 03:17:01 pm »
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The "small irrelevant state" part of his argument, though. That's not nonsense at all. Romney can't very well just concede all of PA's delegates to Santorum.


People still aren't acknowledging the point that I (and even J.J.) made a billion times about how the delegates are directly elected, unpledged and are mostly machine types that will fall in line with the frontrunner? Ok. Cool.
Right, I recall the directly elected part. And the supported candidate not listed on the ballot part. But how many candidates are affiliated with the campaigns, exactly? I certainly am not going to read every post on this cesspool of a board; I'm actually vaguely surprised it's still harmless enough that I'm not ignoring it entirely as I did for long stretches with its 2008 predecessor.
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« Reply #41 on: April 08, 2012, 05:19:52 pm »
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The "small irrelevant state" part of his argument, though. That's not nonsense at all. Romney can't very well just concede all of PA's delegates to Santorum.


People still aren't acknowledging the point that I (and even J.J.) made a billion times about how the delegates are directly elected, unpledged and are mostly machine types that will fall in line with the frontrunner? Ok. Cool.
Right, I recall the directly elected part. And the supported candidate not listed on the ballot part. But how many candidates are affiliated with the campaigns, exactly? I certainly am not going to read every post on this cesspool of a board; I'm actually vaguely surprised it's still harmless enough that I'm not ignoring it entirely as I did for long stretches with its 2008 predecessor.

The campaigns and establishment get their top supporters to run and essentially be pledged to a candidate even if it isn't official. Almost everyone is affiliated with a candidate or are running because the establishment needs them and they will support whomever they're told to support at the convention. Few people bother to run while being undecided.
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« Reply #42 on: April 08, 2012, 08:18:49 pm »
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The campaigns and establishment get their top supporters to run and essentially be pledged to a candidate even if it isn't official. Almost everyone is affiliated with a candidate or are running because the establishment needs them and they will support whomever they're told to support at the convention. Few people bother to run while being undecided.

Nice summary. 

A lot of this is name recognition.  For example, Bill Shuster is running in the 6th CD; I have no idea who he is supporting, but I know he's a Congressman. If I don't know who anyone is supporting, but I'd probably vote for him, because I have no idea who most of the others are.  Same with Phil English in his district.
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« Reply #43 on: April 10, 2012, 10:16:49 am »
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Quote
Romney Moves in for Pennsylvania Knockout

The Romney ad purchase is as notable for its breadth as its depth – in addition to spending $1 million in the Philadelphia media market over the next two weeks, the campaign is also dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars on much smaller markets in Erie and Scranton. Such a purchase will saturate the airwaves there, according to Nicholas.  

The staggering size of the buy has floored many Pennsylvania Republicans, even prompting concerns that smaller stations might not have enough time left over to air ads from other campaigns. Former Erie congressman Phil English, a Romney ally, called it “probably the most intense buy I’ve ever seen.”

“I think people will have an intimate feeling about Mitt Romney by the time this is over,” said English. He said the size of the buy indicates the campaign might have an eye on improving its position for the general election against President Obama, as well. 

The Romney campaign sees Pennsylvania as an opportunity to put a definitive end to the protracted primary. It's worth investing time and money now that the polls show a tight race, said Charlie Black, a Washington lobbyist advising the campaign.

"If Romney wins Pennsylvania, it's over,'' he said. "It wouldn't be fair for Rick Santorum to be treated as a serious candidate after that.''

Even if Santorum were to win the popular vote in Pennsylvania, Black said Romney would get the lion's share of support from the delegates to the convention, who will be chosen at later date. Most of those people are elected officials and party leaders who "are already for Romney or are going to be for Romney,'' he said.

http://mobile.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/romney-moves-in-for-pennsylvania-knockout-20120409

As I thought it isn't about the delegates. It's about beating Santorum in such a way that he is no longer taken seriously as a candidate if he continues on.

I also think team Romney is testing the effectiveness of ad bombing a major media market as a dry run before facing Obama.
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« Reply #44 on: April 10, 2012, 10:42:07 am »
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Quote
Romney Moves in for Pennsylvania Knockout

The Romney ad purchase is as notable for its breadth as its depth – in addition to spending $1 million in the Philadelphia media market over the next two weeks, the campaign is also dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars on much smaller markets in Erie and Scranton. Such a purchase will saturate the airwaves there, according to Nicholas.  

The staggering size of the buy has floored many Pennsylvania Republicans, even prompting concerns that smaller stations might not have enough time left over to air ads from other campaigns. Former Erie congressman Phil English, a Romney ally, called it “probably the most intense buy I’ve ever seen.”

“I think people will have an intimate feeling about Mitt Romney by the time this is over,” said English. He said the size of the buy indicates the campaign might have an eye on improving its position for the general election against President Obama, as well. 

The Romney campaign sees Pennsylvania as an opportunity to put a definitive end to the protracted primary. It's worth investing time and money now that the polls show a tight race, said Charlie Black, a Washington lobbyist advising the campaign.

"If Romney wins Pennsylvania, it's over,'' he said. "It wouldn't be fair for Rick Santorum to be treated as a serious candidate after that.''

Even if Santorum were to win the popular vote in Pennsylvania, Black said Romney would get the lion's share of support from the delegates to the convention, who will be chosen at later date. Most of those people are elected officials and party leaders who "are already for Romney or are going to be for Romney,'' he said.

As I thought it isn't about the delegates. It's about beating Santorum in such a way that he is no longer taken seriously as a candidate if he continues on.

I also think team Romney is testing the effectiveness of ad bombing a major media market as a dry run before facing Obama.


...which is pretty misguided, considering the huge financial disadvantage Romney will be at.
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