Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 20, 2014, 09:37:33 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  At this point...
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: At this point...  (Read 724 times)
NHI
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3637


P P P
View Profile
« on: April 07, 2012, 08:39:09 am »
Ignore

Romney/Portman v. Obama/Biden, where do the chips fall?

Discuss with maps.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34886
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2012, 08:47:52 am »
Ignore



or

Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3587
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2012, 08:49:43 am »
Ignore

Tender and I made the same map at the same time. (Except NE-2)



Obama 286-252
Logged
Earthling
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 746
Netherlands


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2012, 08:51:43 am »
Ignore

Rob Portman isn't that well known in Ohio, so being on the ticket might work both ways. He has worked for George W. Bush, so that won't be a plus.

And if McDonnell doesn't help Romney in Virginia, according to one poll, why would Portman help Romney in Ohio when his approval ratings are much lower?
Logged

Quote
There's no I in team, but there is a ME

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34886
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2012, 08:57:03 am »
Ignore

Quinnipiac even says that Portman on the ticket would increase Obama's margin against Romney in OH:

Quote
President Barack Obama would get 46 percent of Ohio registered voters, to Romney's 44 percent if the November election were today.

Picking Ohio Sen. Rob Portman as Romney's running mate would not help the GOP ticket carry Ohio's crucial electoral votes in November as the Democratic ticket pulls slightly ahead 47 - 43 percent.

...

From February 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,421 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1706
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27517
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2012, 09:00:46 am »
Ignore

Obama would win at the moment, but now is not November. I consider the election a tossup, with a fairly wide range of outcomes.

Mittens' most likely path to victory:



Second most likely:



Never has NH had more importance.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2012, 09:03:16 am by Torie »Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34886
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2012, 09:03:32 am »
Ignore

Torie, why for heavens sake do you think Romney wins WI before CO or PA ?
Logged
Christmas Bushie 2014
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22456
Kenya


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2012, 09:15:35 am »
Ignore

Portman would not be a good choice, IMO, for Romney.  I'm fairly certain that Romney can win this general election, but Portman would not do him any favors.  I don't think he would be as bad a pick as Sarah Palin was for John McCain, but there was no way McCain was going to win in 2008 regardless of who he picked.  The tide was so much in favor of Barack Obama that McCain was little more than a sacrificial lamb.
Logged

My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27517
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2012, 09:19:57 am »
Ignore

Torie, why for heavens sake do you think Romney wins WI before CO or PA ?

CO has those Hispanics whom I think will give Mittens the cold shoulder, and I think Wisconsin has  more swingable voters than PA, Obama won't do that well in the German belt, and the WI Pubs by November will be seen as having their emasculation of the public employee unions vindicated. Just a guess. As I said, the Mittens more likely path to victory is through Richmond.
Logged

Yelnoc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6624
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2012, 12:30:50 pm »
Ignore

Here is my guess for what would ultimately happen.  Explanation below.



Colorado continues trending Democratic.

Florida is very close, but Obama successfully ties Romney to the Ryan Plan, keeping enough Republican-voting seniors at home to hold onto the state.

Georgia is closer than people might have expected; the Atlanta suburbs are trending away from the Republican party, though they manage to win by a decent margin.

Indiana swings back to the Republican column, but only narrowly.

Nevada is a lot closer due to dismal state of the housing market and a more motivated Republican base due to the Mormon presence.  However, Obama's tight hold on the Hispanic vote delivers this state easily.

New Hampshire is somewhat closer than in 2008, but the Romney "home-state" effect is negligible.

North Carolina swings back to the Republican column, though Obama doesn't let it slip away easily; it's a close one.

Ohio stays in the Obama camp, Portman doing nothing for Romney.
Logged

Your Atlas experience will be 100x better if you turn signatures off. Trust me.
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6358
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2012, 01:29:04 pm »
Ignore

Portman's approval ratings are lower than Obama's in OH, and the fact that he had worked for George W. Bush would turn into a significant liability. Portman would help Romney by a point or two in Ohio, but probably not by enough to win the state, leading to a result something like this:



Obama 332

Romney 206

The margin is a bit closer than in 2008, but not by much and not because of Portman.
Logged

A-Bob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5926
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 1.13

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2012, 02:47:11 pm »
Ignore

Torie, why for heavens sake do you think Romney wins WI before CO or PA ?

CO has those Hispanics whom I think will give Mittens the cold shoulder, and I think Wisconsin has  more swingable voters than PA, Obama won't do that well in the German belt, and the WI Pubs by November will be seen as having their emasculation of the public employee unions vindicated. Just a guess. As I said, the Mittens more likely path to victory is through Richmond.

This is true, Republican Hispanics around Pueblo dislike Romney extremely. And those are the republicans...
Logged

argentarius
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 846
Ireland, Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2012, 03:46:07 pm »
Ignore

Right now I think the one change I could guarantee is Indiana. Other than that I think that NC would be the only flip, though I think that SC/AZ would have a chance at flipping.
Logged
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5346
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2012, 06:59:57 pm »
Ignore

Right now I think the one change I could guarantee is Indiana. Other than that I think that NC would be the only flip, though I think that SC/AZ would have a chance at flipping.
SC before Georgia?
Logged

True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28721
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2012, 07:29:40 pm »
Ignore

Right now I think the one change I could guarantee is Indiana. Other than that I think that NC would be the only flip, though I think that SC/AZ would have a chance at flipping.
SC before Georgia?

SC won't flip.  Not unless the Dems for reasons unforseen have to replace Obama. Or Obama makes use of the Orbital Mind Control Lasers.
Logged

People find meaning and redemption in the most unusual human connections. ó Khaled Hosseini
memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15304


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2012, 07:37:08 pm »
Ignore

Never has NH had more importance.

You might want to take a look at the 2000 results....
Logged

I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
I don't want my women talking to people
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18751
United States
View Profile
« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2012, 07:44:42 pm »
Ignore

Logged
Christmas Bushie 2014
BushOklahoma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22456
Kenya


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2012, 11:44:39 pm »
Ignore

Never has NH had more importance.

You might want to take a look at the 2000 results....

Very true.
Logged

My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)
Lowly Griff
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6144
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2012, 02:54:46 am »
Ignore



318
220
Logged

I will come back to my parents' for supper and then will go to a birthday party for a handsome 13-year-old. 

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines