Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,094
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
|
 |
« on: April 12, 2012, 05:25:33 PM » |
|
|
« edited: April 12, 2012, 05:28:00 PM by ¥ENMOR »
|
I honestly would be surprised to see the Republicans win another presidential election anytime within the next 20 years. If you look at PV over the past five elections, a Republican has only won once (2004), while Democrats won in 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2008. Democratic presidents are simply a better fit now in centrist American politics as the Democratic Party is much more centrist (as a national average) than it was throughout much of the 20th century. The electoral math isn't there for them, either. The Democratic candidate's electoral floor now is somewhere around 230 EV, while Republicans' is at 170. As hooper mentioned, you have several states (VA, NC, SC, GA) that either already have or will leave the Republicans' center of power over the next decade. I tend to think FL will remain a swing state for a good 15 years due to split demographics that keep renewing themselves.
Republicans' key to power will be holding on to the favorable house districts they've drawn for themselves for the next decade. I believe we'll be facing a scenario throughout most of the next decade where Democrats control the Senate and Presidency and Republicans may control or be a strong minority within the House.
|
Poll
