Realignment?

[politicus]

The electoral math isn't there for them, either. The Democratic candidate's electoral floor now is somewhere around 230 EV, while Republicans' is at 170. As hooper mentioned, you have several states (VA, NC, SC, GA) that either already have or will leave the Republicans' center of power over the next decade. I tend to think FL will remain a swing state for a good 15 years due to split demographics that keep renewing themselves. 

What states are you counting to get as high as 170? I only get 113 as their floor. Alabama, Alaska, KY, KS, LA, MS, NE, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY.

[politicus]

The electoral math isn't there for them, either. The Democratic candidate's electoral floor now is somewhere around 230 EV, while Republicans' is at 170. As hooper mentioned, you have several states (VA, NC, SC, GA) that either already have or will leave the Republicans' center of power over the next decade. I tend to think FL will remain a swing state for a good 15 years due to split demographics that keep renewing themselves.  

What states are you counting to get as high as 170? I only get 113 as their floor. Alabama, Alaska, KY, KS, LA, MS, NE, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY.

You forgot about the Dakota's and MO (MT right?) though.

I don't think you can count the Dakotas and Montana as part of a Republican floor in the years ahead. All three states could go Dem with the right candidate. Brian Schweitzer could take all of them in a succesful campaign

[politicus]

Another 3-4 election cycles (2034+)

The Dakotas will have changed a lot with wind energy etc. Small immigration of well educated will affect a lot. Texas is majority Hispanic at this point. It would likely be D.

[politicus]

Just for fun. No change of current positions. GOP keep the culture war going and current immigration policies which alienates Hispanics add Norquist style tax policies and you could get this. Unlikely because they will adjust their positions.