Realignment?

[hopper]

2016 or 2020: I think the lower south(VA, NC, GA, and FL) will start voting Dem regulalrly in presidential elections. NJ could go back to its Swing Status as it was from the 60's-early 90's. The Rust Belt will start voting regularly for  the R's in Presidential Election except for Illinois and maybe Michigan(the UAW workers save that state from going R) after Walker and Kasich go away. NV, AZ, TX, NM, and CO go dem( which is great news for the D's and bad news for the R's) because that is where the population growth is in the US in the Southwest.

I will be curious to see what happens to states like MA, Utah, and Montana if they start trending majorly to the opposite party. The Dakota's are staying Republican and so is Missouri. SC and Indiana are staying R. Minnesota is going R.

The Northeast is staying D mostly except for NJ for the time being. MA is up in the air to what political direction that they are going in. NH stays purple or has a slight lean R to it. The West coast is staying D as well.

[hopper]

The electoral math isn't there for them, either. The Democratic candidate's electoral floor now is somewhere around 230 EV, while Republicans' is at 170. As hooper mentioned, you have several states (VA, NC, SC, GA) that either already have or will leave the Republicans' center of power over the next decade. I tend to think FL will remain a swing state for a good 15 years due to split demographics that keep renewing themselves. 

What states are you counting to get as high as 170? I only get 113 as their floor. Alabama, Alaska, KY, KS, LA, MS, NE, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY.

You forgot about the Dakota's and MO though.

[hopper]

I love that you all think NJ is trending GOP long term, but why? Is it the refocus on economics?

The population growth in NJ is mainly down the shore  and in Central-Western Jersey(Somerset, Warren Counties) I think which is definately not as liberal politically as the Urban Area's in Hudson and Essex Counties. The Dems when they were in charge of the govenorships from 2002-2009 most New Jerseyans didn't approve of the job they were doing except for Democrat Richard Codey who's very short term was sandwiched in between Corzine's lone term and McGreevey's early exit from the Governor's Mansion. Another factor is even though NJ has a good population of Latino's and Asians there is no big thing about a border fence or illegal immigration because NJ isn't a border state so that helps.

In my opinion NJ will be a swing state again soon.

[hopper]

Just for fun. No change of current positions. GOP keep the culture war going and current immigration policies which alienates Hispanics add Norquist style tax policies and you could get this. Unlikely because they will adjust their positions.

Yeah Rubio's version of the "DREAM Act" may start to reflect that.