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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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| |-+  International General Discussion (Moderators: Peter, afleitch)
| | |-+  United Ireland?
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Question: Will there be a united Ireland in 2032?
Aint gonna happen   -26 (81.3%)
Yes - a confederation   -3 (9.4%)
Yes - a federal republic   -3 (9.4%)
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Total Voters: 32

Author Topic: United Ireland?  (Read 2215 times)
politicus
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« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2012, 12:12:03 pm »
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My main reason for asking the question in this thread was, that I think a possible Scottish secession from the UK could open up the NI situation in a new way and make a NI/I confederation seem like the logical option to more people.
 
How do you think an independent Scotland would affect the attitudes in NI and the rest of UK?

The way I see it, a UK without Scotland would have little inclination to keep subsidizing NI, or would at least' cut these transfers substantially. That would remove much of the economic incentive to stay in the union.
Quite a few Scots still feel a bond with NI Unionists/Ulster Scots while most English don't really seem to care about NI.
And NI would be geographically removed from the rest of the UK, which would be even more preoccupied with English issues and priorities than the present UK.



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« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2012, 12:52:18 pm »
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If Scotland were to cut it's ties with England, is there any chance Northern Ireland would rather go with Scotland and would Scotland be willing to take them if they did?
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« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2012, 12:52:55 pm »
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If Scotland were to cut it's ties with England, is there any chance Northern Ireland would rather go with Scotland and would Scotland be willing to take them if they did?
No & no.
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« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2012, 08:50:14 pm »
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Well, this leaves one more option. Upon Scottish independence the United Kingdom gets disolved and the Kingdom of Northern Island becomes a separate member of the Commonwealth. Would that be possible? Again, conditional on Scottish independence actually prospering.
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« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2012, 08:56:48 pm »
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Well, this leaves one more option. Upon Scottish independence the United Kingdom gets disolved and the Kingdom of Northern Island becomes a separate member of the Commonwealth. Would that be possible? Again, conditional on Scottish independence actually prospering.

No. Nobody is going to touch NI constitutional issues for a long time.. and with good reason.
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« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2012, 09:05:44 pm »
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Well, this leaves one more option. Upon Scottish independence the United Kingdom gets disolved and the Kingdom of Northern Island becomes a separate member of the Commonwealth. Would that be possible? Again, conditional on Scottish independence actually prospering.

No. Nobody is going to touch NI constitutional issues for a long time.. and with good reason.

Well, that might not be up to even the (Northern) Irish - or, for that matter, the English. If Scotland gets independence, the constitutional issues in the rest of the UK would have to be touched, wouldn't they? Even the decision to stay in the UK will not be exactly the decision to maintain status quo - it would be a very different UK.
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« Reply #31 on: April 13, 2012, 09:13:19 pm »
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Well, this leaves one more option. Upon Scottish independence the United Kingdom gets disolved and the Kingdom of Northern Island becomes a separate member of the Commonwealth. Would that be possible? Again, conditional on Scottish independence actually prospering.

No. Nobody is going to touch NI constitutional issues for a long time.. and with good reason.

Well, that might not be up to even the (Northern) Irish - or, for that matter, the English. If Scotland gets independence, the constitutional issues in the rest of the UK would have to be touched, wouldn't they? Even the decision to stay in the UK will not be exactly the decision to maintain status quo - it would be a very different UK.

The UK will be maintained regardless - it will just be the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Smiley
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
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« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2012, 09:16:17 pm »
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Well, this leaves one more option. Upon Scottish independence the United Kingdom gets disolved and the Kingdom of Northern Island becomes a separate member of the Commonwealth. Would that be possible? Again, conditional on Scottish independence actually prospering.

No. Nobody is going to touch NI constitutional issues for a long time.. and with good reason.

Well, that might not be up to even the (Northern) Irish - or, for that matter, the English. If Scotland gets independence, the constitutional issues in the rest of the UK would have to be touched, wouldn't they? Even the decision to stay in the UK will not be exactly the decision to maintain status quo - it would be a very different UK.

The UK will be maintained regardless - it will just be the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Smiley

On paper, yes. You'll get obvious obvious suspects screaming "If they can be independent, why the hell can't we?" (Which, if you look at Scots Independence from that standpoint, it makes the whole idea appear the bit more silly than it already is.) Don't know if anything'd come of it though.
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« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2012, 09:18:24 pm »
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The economic situation - as well as other factors that don't need to be mentioned - will I think rule out the prospect of Welsh and NI independence in the short to medium term. I mean, despite Plaid Cymru, the actual idea of Welsh independence has never garnered that much support and I think we can rule NI independence out for the obvious reasons.
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« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2012, 10:31:15 pm »
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the actual idea of Welsh independence has never garnered that much support

The technical term often being 'single digit'.
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« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2012, 10:37:48 pm »
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The economic situation - as well as other factors that don't need to be mentioned - will I think rule out the prospect of Welsh and NI independence in the short to medium term. I mean, despite Plaid Cymru, the actual idea of Welsh independence has never garnered that much support and I think we can rule NI independence out for the obvious reasons.

NI Independence is actually one of the more hilarious thoughts I've heard recently.  Move over, Moldova, the "Republic of Ulster" (minus Donegal) is here to take the role of Europe's Third World.

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« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2012, 11:02:04 pm »
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Well, this leaves one more option. Upon Scottish independence the United Kingdom gets disolved and the Kingdom of Northern Island becomes a separate member of the Commonwealth. Would that be possible? Again, conditional on Scottish independence actually prospering.

No. Nobody is going to touch NI constitutional issues for a long time.. and with good reason.

Well, that might not be up to even the (Northern) Irish - or, for that matter, the English. If Scotland gets independence, the constitutional issues in the rest of the UK would have to be touched, wouldn't they? Even the decision to stay in the UK will not be exactly the decision to maintain status quo - it would be a very different UK.

The UK will be maintained regardless - it will just be the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Smiley

Doesn't that require upgrading Wales to Kingdom status?  (Which would undoubtedly trigger a minor civil war between the Welsh and Daily Mail readers).
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« Reply #37 on: April 14, 2012, 05:36:13 am »
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The UK will be maintained regardless - it will just be the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Smiley

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Doesn't that require upgrading Wales to Kingdom status?  (Which would undoubtedly trigger a minor civil war between the Welsh and Daily Mail readers).
Wales has been part of the kingdom of England since the Act of Union in 1536. But I suppose the Welsh would want to be mentioned as a separate entity if there is no Great Britain.

The economic situation - as well as other factors that don't need to be mentioned - will I think rule out the prospect of Welsh and NI independence in the short to medium term. I mean, despite Plaid Cymru, the actual idea of Welsh independence has never garnered that much support and I think we can rule NI independence out for the obvious reasons.

NI Independence is actually one of the more hilarious thoughts I've heard recently.  Move over, Moldova, the "Principality of Ulster" (minus Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan) is here to take the role of Europe's Third World.
Fixed

All in all I think Scottish secession will open up the constitutional debate in both Britain and NI, and the NI unionists will face a tough choice between being emotional and staying as a completely marginalised part of an English state that doesn't care about them and joining some form of Irish confederation where their voice actually will count.  
« Last Edit: April 14, 2012, 07:02:29 am by politicus »Logged

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« Reply #38 on: April 14, 2012, 06:21:52 am »
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The economic situation - as well as other factors that don't need to be mentioned - will I think rule out the prospect of Welsh and NI independence in the short to medium term. I mean, despite Plaid Cymru, the actual idea of Welsh independence has never garnered that much support and I think we can rule NI independence out for the obvious reasons.

NI Independence is actually one of the more hilarious thoughts I've heard recently.  Move over, Moldova, the "Republic of Ulster" (minus Donegal) is here to take the role of Europe's Third World.



There is no way an independent NI would become a republic except over a lot of dead bodies. Here, I would like to remind people that the only people throughout the entire violence of the 1970s and 1980s who advocated NI independence (and had some popular support) were some of the hardline "unionist" (ironic, no?) organizations who basically wanted to turn NI into an all white but sectarian based version of South Africa.
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
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« Reply #39 on: April 14, 2012, 10:57:55 am »
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NI Independence is actually one of the more hilarious thoughts I've heard recently.  Move over, Moldova, the "Principality of Ulster" (minus Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan) is here to take the role of Europe's Third World.
Fixed

In the British Peerage, Ulster is an Earldom, not a Principality.


All in all I think Scottish secession will open up the constitutional debate in both Britain and NI, and the NI unionists will face a tough choice between being emotional and staying as a completely marginalised part of an English state that doesn't care about them and joining some form of Irish confederation where their voice actually will count.  

That's pretty much one of Sinn Féin's arguments as is. I don't see P Robinson et al biting.
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politicus
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« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2012, 11:08:48 am »
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NI Independence is actually one of the more hilarious thoughts I've heard recently.  Move over, Moldova, the "Principality of Ulster" (minus Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan) is here to take the role of Europe's Third World.
Fixed
In the British Peerage, Ulster is an Earldom, not a Principality.

Sure. But if it were to become independent you would have to upgrade the title a bit Wink

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« Reply #41 on: April 14, 2012, 04:43:45 pm »
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Yeah, I mean, Gormenghast is a Kingdom ruled by Earls, and would an independent Northern Ireland really make that much more sense or be that much better off? Tongue
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« Reply #42 on: April 14, 2012, 05:53:29 pm »
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Yeah, I mean, Gormenghast is a Kingdom ruled by Earls, and would an independent Northern Ireland really make that much more sense or be that much better off? Tongue
You have a way of putting things in perspective Smiley
Nah, I think most of us can agree that an independent NI doesn't make much sense. But it could work as an entity in an Irish confederation with common fiscal policies, infrastructure, defence and foreign relations. 
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« Reply #43 on: April 14, 2012, 06:23:12 pm »
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Honestly as long as EU is around North Ireland, Wales and Scotland are quite viable as independent states. While North Ireland is in the lower end of the scale of country size of EU, it would be slightly smaller than Slovenia and slightly bigger than Estonia, countries which has shown themselves to be quite viable and have done better than a lot of their bigger neighbours.
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« Reply #44 on: April 15, 2012, 03:28:42 pm »
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Why would anyone assume that NI would be a viable state if it left the UK? It wouldn't merely be the economy which would be an issue (though, as it is, NI is an economic dependency of her Majesty's Treasury).
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Keith R Laws ‏@Keith_Laws  Feb 4
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« Reply #45 on: April 15, 2012, 03:33:40 pm »
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An independent Northern Ireland would easily be in the running for the worst country in Europe.
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« Reply #46 on: April 15, 2012, 08:28:16 pm »
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Well, in any case, the rump UK would, for all practicaly purposes, be the Greater England, in which Wales and Northern Ireland would, at best, be "autonomous entities" of sorts. While it may be possible, the nature of the UK would change radically
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« Reply #47 on: April 15, 2012, 08:42:17 pm »
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Well, in any case, the rump UK would, for all practicaly purposes, be the Greater England, in which Wales and Northern Ireland would, at best, be "autonomous entities" of sorts. While it may be possible, the nature of the UK would change radically

NI already is for all intents and purposes an "autonomous entity of sorts". Of course it was even more autonomous once, between 1920 and 1973. That didn't work out well.
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« Reply #48 on: April 15, 2012, 09:15:07 pm »
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After 1973, it was essentially a colony, wasn't it? It wasn't as though Northern Ireland had much real say over the government that ruled it.
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« Reply #49 on: April 15, 2012, 09:18:25 pm »
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Well, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland took over the posh house that used to be home to the Governor of Northern Ireland, so...
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