United Ireland?

[politicus]

Is there any credible path to a unification of Ireland and Northern Ireland in the next 20 years? Either as a federation or (more likely) as a confederation. I think that an independent Scotland might change the position of some NI protestants - especially in the younger generation. Northern Ireland is already an odd component in the British state, and it would be even odder and more marginal in an amputated British/ English-Welsh state.

[politicus]

The chances of a united independent Ireland twenty years from now are about as good as those of a restored United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland in the same time frame.  Not absolutely impossible, but so improbable as to not be worth worrying about.

Well, at restored UK of GB and Ireland is absolutely impossible, so that's a false comparison.
A prerequisite for my question is the possibility of an independent Scotland (chances 30-40% IMO) and the dynamic it would unleash regarding the future of the UK.

[politicus]

I figure it's like the West Germany/East Germany or South Korea/North Korea thing - they might not really want to in the strictly practical sense, but they would feel obligated to anyway.

I agree. Its mostly up to NI. If there is a change in opinion up there, it'll be hard for the republic to say no.
Also both FF and FG support unification in principle.

[politicus]

My main reason for asking the question in this thread was, that I think a possible Scottish secession from the UK could open up the NI situation in a new way and make a NI/I confederation seem like the logical option to more people.
 
How do you think an independent Scotland would affect the attitudes in NI and the rest of UK?

The way I see it, a UK without Scotland would have little inclination to keep subsidizing NI, or would at least' cut these transfers substantially. That would remove much of the economic incentive to stay in the union.
Quite a few Scots still feel a bond with NI Unionists/Ulster Scots while most English don't really seem to care about NI.
And NI would be geographically removed from the rest of the UK, which would be even more preoccupied with English issues and priorities than the present UK.

[politicus]

The UK will be maintained regardless - it will just be the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

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Wales has been part of the kingdom of England since the Act of Union in 1536. But I suppose the Welsh would want to be mentioned as a separate entity if there is no Great Britain.

The economic situation - as well as other factors that don't need to be mentioned - will I think rule out the prospect of Welsh and NI independence in the short to medium term. I mean, despite Plaid Cymru, the actual idea of Welsh independence has never garnered that much support and I think we can rule NI independence out for the obvious reasons.

NI Independence is actually one of the more hilarious thoughts I've heard recently.  Move over, Moldova, the "Principality of Ulster" (minus Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan) is here to take the role of Europe's Third World.

Fixed

All in all I think Scottish secession will open up the constitutional debate in both Britain and NI, and the NI unionists will face a tough choice between being emotional and staying as a completely marginalised part of an English state that doesn't care about them and joining some form of Irish confederation where their voice actually will count.  

[politicus]

NI Independence is actually one of the more hilarious thoughts I've heard recently.  Move over, Moldova, the "Principality of Ulster" (minus Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan) is here to take the role of Europe's Third World.

Fixed

In the British Peerage, Ulster is an Earldom, not a Principality.

Sure. But if it were to become independent you would have to upgrade the title a bit

[politicus]

Yeah, I mean, Gormenghast is a Kingdom ruled by Earls, and would an independent Northern Ireland really make that much more sense or be that much better off?

You have a way of putting things in perspective
Nah, I think most of us can agree that an independent NI doesn't make much sense. But it could work as an entity in an Irish confederation with common fiscal policies, infrastructure, defence and foreign relations. 

[politicus]

Well, in any case, the rump UK would, for all practically purposes, be the Greater England, in which Wales and Northern Ireland would, at best, be "autonomous entities" of sorts. While it may be possible, the nature of the UK would change radically

Yes, England would be even more dominant than today and have 510 out of 550 members in the House of Commons. Welsh first minister Carwyn Jones has an idea of a new upper house in this scenario where England, Wales and NI should have equal representation.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jan/13/scottish-independence-wales-northern-ireland But I doubt the English would accept.
The problem with any kind of federal structure in Britain is that England is simply too big an entity compared to the rest.
Only the Danish Realm is worse off in this respect. Greenland and the Faroes only have about 2,2 % of the total population combined making federalism ludicrous. But NI's share of the population in a "Rump-UK" would actually only be slightly higher.