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Question: will Congress stay republican
yes and the Senate will become Republican controlled   -17 (43.6%)
it will stay the way it as it is   -11 (28.2%)
dems will make gains   -11 (28.2%)
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Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: 2012  (Read 1185 times)
jman123
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« on: April 04, 2012, 09:07:27 pm »
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what do you think?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2012, 09:22:54 pm »
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Congress is actually split now, not GOP-controlled.

However, I think Republicans will control both the House and Senate after the 2012 elections. Either due to the fact that the economy is poor and Americans are ready for Republicans across the board again, or because they're voting Obama and want a bi-partisan government. Haven't figured which it'll be yet. Wink
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2012, 09:47:37 pm »
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Congress is actually split now, not GOP-controlled.

However, I think Republicans will control both the House and Senate after the 2012 elections. Either due to the fact that the economy is poor and Americans are ready for Republicans across the board again, or because they're voting Obama and want a bi-partisan government. Haven't figured which it'll be yet. Wink

We already have a bipartisan government.  Boehner essentially has strings on Obama.  No more than 3% of the population is going to vote for Obama and then vote Republican downballot for that reason.  This would be the first time in history that a party lost control of the Senate while its President was getting reelected. 
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2012, 10:28:49 pm »
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The Republicans will pick up the Senate whethere Obama is re-elected or not.  The Democrats just simply have too many seats to defend and too small of a majority currently. 

The GOP only needs four pick-ups for 51 seats.  They've already pretty much locked up three:  ND, NE and MT.  So that means they have to manage a pick-up somewhere between HI, NM, MO, WI, FL or VA.  Maine and Massachusetts will be Republican holds.  King will be elected in Maine and will caucus with the GOP and Warren does not fair to well with Massachusetts Dems outside of Harvard Yard, never mind that she will be every Super PACs number one target.

Also, even though they aren't now, I bet the races in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan become more competitive as the election draws nearer.  These swing states will have produce a good race. 

With these factors, I do not see how any reasonable person can reject the idea of Senator McConnell being elected Majority Leader come January. 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2012, 03:13:33 am »
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The Republicans will pick up the Senate whethere Obama is re-elected or not.  The Democrats just simply have too many seats to defend and too small of a majority currently. 

The GOP only needs four pick-ups for 51 seats.  They've already pretty much locked up three:  ND, NE and MT.  So that means they have to manage a pick-up somewhere between HI, NM, MO, WI, FL or VA.  Maine and Massachusetts will be Republican holds.  King will be elected in Maine and will caucus with the GOP and Warren does not fair to well with Massachusetts Dems outside of Harvard Yard, never mind that she will be every Super PACs number one target.

Also, even though they aren't now, I bet the races in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan become more competitive as the election draws nearer.  These swing states will have produce a good race. 

With these factors, I do not see how any reasonable person can reject the idea of Senator McConnell being elected Majority Leader come January. 

King will not caucus with Republicans.  If he is, the DSCC chair wouldnt  be openly supporting him.  HI will not even be close with Obama on the ballot and Obama will easily carry NM.  VA will go whatever way the Presidential race goes in that state as will FL. 
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2012, 02:54:38 pm »
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Montana is far from a lock I don't know where you are getting that from...

I voted Option #1.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2012, 07:34:29 pm »
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Montana is far from a lock I don't know where you are getting that from...

I voted Option #1.

Montana is a conservative state that barely elected Tester in 2006.  Obama being at the top of the ticket in this state is not going to help any Democrat in the state.  Additionally, the DSCC would much rather divert resources to McCaskill, Kaine or Nelson (FL) over Tester because Tester is an unabashed supporter of Keystone XL. 

Rheberg wins in MT with close to 55% of the vote.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2012, 08:39:24 pm »
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Democrats will probably pick-up a few net seats in the House, but there's a good chance the republicans win the Senate. We'll see, could be a dynamic race.
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redcommander
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2012, 09:42:51 pm »
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Republicans take back the Senate, and make more gains in the House.
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« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2012, 10:00:20 pm »
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The Republicans will pick up the Senate whethere Obama is re-elected or not.  The Democrats just simply have too many seats to defend and too small of a majority currently. 

The GOP only needs four pick-ups for 51 seats.  They've already pretty much locked up three:  ND, NE and MT.  So that means they have to manage a pick-up somewhere between HI, NM, MO, WI, FL or VA.  Maine and Massachusetts will be Republican holds.  King will be elected in Maine and will caucus with the GOP and Warren does not fair to well with Massachusetts Dems outside of Harvard Yard, never mind that she will be every Super PACs number one target.

Also, even though they aren't now, I bet the races in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan become more competitive as the election draws nearer.  These swing states will have produce a good race. 

With these factors, I do not see how any reasonable person can reject the idea of Senator McConnell being elected Majority Leader come January. 

MT polls have Tester up by 1% and Kerrey in Nebraska makes it at least competitive. Hawaii, New Mexico, and Wisconsin are all Democratic-leaning, and FL, MO, and VA are all swing states. King is likely to caucus with the Democrats and Warren can win Massachusetts, due to it being Massachusetts. I can see the Democrats losing 2-3 seats, but I cannot fathom Majority Leader McConnell.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2012, 03:21:35 pm »
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Republicans take back the Senate, and make more gains in the House.

More gains in the House?  Redistricting is a wash for Republicans according to veteran Congressional reporters like Rothenberg and Cook.  What seats are Republicans going to pick up other than seats in North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia that they gerrymandered and the open seats in Oklahoma and Arkansas? 
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2012, 08:47:06 pm »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.
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redcommander
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2012, 03:42:40 am »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

No.
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Svensson
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2012, 04:08:53 am »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

No.

Care to extrapolate, or is your word simply that comparable to God's?
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Kevin
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2012, 07:56:32 pm »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

Anyone on here who thinks that the Dems are going to retake/make significant gains in ether the House or Senate as of now is living in a a fantasy land regardless of whether Obama wins a 2nd term or not.

I agree that the Democrats will prob gain seats in the House but that's mainly due to the fact that alot of these GOP seats that are in jeopardy are in solid Red states like Maryland, California, or Illinois where there has been alot of pro-Dem Gerrymandering. Hence most of these are probably lost for the GOP to begin with.

While in the Senate, the Democrats  like mentioned above have too many seats to defend and only a couple of pick up oppertunites such as Massachusetts, Maine, and Nevada . And even these aren't a shoo-in at all for the Dem's. On the other hand they have several seats in Blue states that stand a significant chance of changing columns to the Republicans like Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Montana. Not to mention the outside chance that the GOP could win CT, WV, and HI under the right circumstances, which I lament is unlikely at this time. But still , the Democrats have automatically lost 2 seats already in North Dakota and Nebraska.

So the Democrats are already in some deep sh*t electorally in terms of the legislature. Esp. the Senate.  

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2012, 09:29:06 pm »
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Regarding the US Senate. Democrats lose NE,ND,MT,and MO. They have a 50-50 chance of losing WI-assuming Thompson-R vs Baldwin-D and VA. Democrats gain ME-King-I caucuses with DEMs, and MA. They have a 50-50 chance of picking up NV. Democrats hold onto FL,NM,and OH. Republicans hold onto AZ and IN. Democrats will have a net loss of 1 to 4 seats.
Regarding the US House.
AZ= +2D/-1R
AR= -1D/+1R(+1D)
CA= +6D/-6R(+7D/-6R)
FL= +2D(+9D/-6R)
GA=-1D/+2R(+8D/-4R)
IL=+5D/-6R(+13D/-10R)
IN=-1D/+1R(+12D/-9R)
IA=-1D(+11D/-9R)
LA=-1R(+11D/-10R)
MD=+1D/-1R(+12D/-11R)
MA=-1D(+11D/-11R)
MI=-1D(+10D/-11R)
MN=+1D/-1R(+11D/-12R)
MO=-1D(+10D/-12R)
NV=+1D(+11D/-12R)
NH=+1D/-1R(+12D/-13R)
NJ=-1D(+11D/-13R)
NY=+1D/-3R(+12D/-16R)
NC=-4D/+4R(+8D/-12R)
OH=-1D/-1R(+7D/-13R)
OK=-1D/+1R(+6D/-12R)
PA=-1D(+5D/-12R)
SC=+1R(+5D/-11R)
TX=+2D/+2R(+7D/-9R)
UT=+1R(+7D/-8R)
WA=+1D(+8D/-8R)
Democrats could lose RI-1(Cicilline-D) and UT-4(Matheson-D)
Republicans could also lose CO-3(Tipton-R),CO-6(Coffman-R),FL-18(West-R),FL-26(Rivera-R),NV-3(Heck-R),NH-1(Guinta-R),NY-23(Reed-R),OH-6(Johnson-R),and WI-7(Duffy-R)

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Kevin
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2012, 10:30:26 pm »
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MT, WI, MA and VA: Tester down 3, Baldwin down 3, Warren no significant advantage and VA Allen has problems, all within the margin of error.  And the only reason why Shelley Berkley may not win is because Dina Titus who she very much resembles already lost in NV due to HCR and HCR was on the ballot in MO and was defeated.

What are you trying to say?

I'm afraid I don't get the point of your post?
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redcommander
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« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2012, 03:31:35 am »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

No.

Care to extrapolate, or is your word simply that comparable to God's?

Democrats got screwed over in redistricting. There aren't enough targets for them to take back the House this cycle. The Senate has too many targets for the Democrats to defend for them to hold on to it.
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2012, 03:58:58 am »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

No.

Care to extrapolate, or is your word simply that comparable to God's?

Democrats got screwed over in redistricting. There aren't enough targets for them to take back the House this cycle. The Senate has too many targets for the Democrats to defend for them to hold on to it.

I never said that they'd take back the House this cycle. We'll just disagree on the Senate.
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FBF
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« Reply #19 on: April 20, 2012, 06:03:02 am »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

No.

Care to extrapolate, or is your word simply that comparable to God's?

Democrats got screwed over in redistricting. There aren't enough targets for them to take back the House this cycle. The Senate has too many targets for the Democrats to defend for them to hold on to it.

You should tell that to everyone else who worked on the 2012 congressional map, just in case.  Tongue
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GPORTER
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« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2012, 06:19:29 am »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

No.

Care to extrapolate, or is your word simply that comparable to God's?

Democrats got screwed over in redistricting. There aren't enough targets for them to take back the House this cycle. The Senate has too many targets for the Democrats to defend for them to hold on to it.
And for some of us, thats the best thing that has ever happened since 2004.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #21 on: April 20, 2012, 07:31:34 am »
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And for some of us, thats the best thing that has ever happened since 2004.

Think about 2014 Governor races and 2016 Senate races))))
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redcommander
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« Reply #22 on: April 20, 2012, 03:41:25 pm »
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For the millionth time, I say Democrats keep the Senate but fall about 10 seats short of retaking the House.

No.

Care to extrapolate, or is your word simply that comparable to God's?

Democrats got screwed over in redistricting. There aren't enough targets for them to take back the House this cycle. The Senate has too many targets for the Democrats to defend for them to hold on to it.

I never said that they'd take back the House this cycle. We'll just disagree on the Senate.

Sorry. I was combining what you said with what some other people have been saying. I still don't think Democrats will be in a position to even come that close to taking back the House though.
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Chris B
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2012, 12:10:16 pm »
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I think the Republicans likely hold onto the House, but the Democrats should make some pretty decent gains there.

Unless Romney can pull off a victory, I think the Democrats are favored to retain the Senate, albeit possibly a 50/50 split with Biden being the tie breaker.
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OC
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2012, 03:20:04 pm »
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Dems pu MA and keep OH, VA and FL and loses MT, ND, NEB and MO.
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