Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2014, 08:30:24 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Ohio Legislative Redistricting
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Ohio Legislative Redistricting  (Read 1660 times)
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« on: April 09, 2012, 10:55:30 pm »
Ignore

I've decided to take a closer look at the effects of Ohio legislative redistricting for the next decade. I would like to determine just how powerful the map is in preserving Republican control of the statehouse for the next decade. I've used the DRA to map out the old and current districts (except for split precincts). I've decided the best use of the data the DRA can provide is to come up with a partisan index of sorts that combines the 2008 Presidential numbers with the DRA's Rep/Dem %. I believe the presidential numbers are more telling for an overall idea of an area's partisan make-up than the % so I weighted it doubly. Both numbers are skewed in the Democrat's favor, so I adjusted the results such that Ohio's statewide totals match the state's PVI from the last two presidential elections of R+0.6. I took the index as a % from 0 to 100 (where 0 is Democratic and 100 is Republican).

In this methodology the median district and number of "Safe" districts (<45 or >55) are given for both the old and new map. Ohio has 99 House districts and 33 Senate districts.

MapMedian DistrictScoreLocation#Safe Dem#Safe Rep
Old HouseDistrict 152.35Columbiana County (all)2840
New HouseDistrict 4854.33Stark County (north-central part)2846
Old SenateDistrict 2052.22Athens, Washington, Muskingum, +more914
New SenateDistrict 1853.22most of Lake, Geauga, Portage916

To come: a district by district look
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2012, 12:47:43 pm »
Ignore

Part I: Cuyahoga County

HD-6 (was HD-17): Marlene Anielski (R) 52.43 (was 50.17): Anielski won by a comfortable 15-point margin in 2010 and the district is a couple points more Republican by dropping Pepper Pike and Mayfield Heights in favor of Gates Milles, Highland Heights, and the Village of Mayfield. This is probably safer than the index suggests because many of the more Democratic areas are super-rich suburbs that vote for Republicans more in legislative races than executive races and it remains anchored by the deeply Republican Cuyahoga Valley.


HD-7 (was HD-18): Mike Dovilla (R) 51.84: This was the most competitive seat in Cuyahoga County in 2010 when Dovilla won by a 5-point margin. The seat remains unchanged and has a slight Republican lean from its southern half. Like much of the west side, this area has some remnants of an ancestral Democratic past but John McCain did fairly well. It also eats up the college town of Berea. The GOP likely wishes it could have bolstered this district somehow, but the contiguous municipalities it consists of prevent an easy way of doing so without destroying HD-6 or HD-16.


HD-8 (was mostly HD-7): Armond Budish (D)  23.17 (was 24.99), 50.3% VAP Black: This combines the districts of term-limited Democrat Kenny Yuko with Democratic minority leader Armond Budish. It loses Cleveland’s Collinwood neighborhood in favor of heavily African American East Cleveland and Cleveland’s Euclid Green neighborhood as well as wealthy liberal Beachwood. I can’t imagine Budish likes being thrown into a more working class district instead of his old wealthy liberal one but he actually does lose some black% (Budish is white) so perhaps he doesn’t mind too much.


HD-9: Barbara Boyd (D) 17.64 (was 16.67), 50.5% VAP black: Boyd gets a wealthier and slightly whiter district by exchanging East Cleveland for Shaker Heights but it stays VAP black and safely Democratic under any imaginable circumstances.


HD-10: Bill Patmon (D) 15.25 (was 17.74), 50.9% VAP black: This district remains almost exactly the same with only a handful of precints being exchanged and gains Collinwood and University Circle neighborhoods to adjust for his extraordinarily underpopulated district.


HD-11: Sandra Williams (D) 16.87 (was 18.54), 61.6% VAP black: This is now the most heavily black district in the state after losing a collection of working class white Cuyahoga Valley and west side areas.


HD-12: John Barnes, Jr. (D) 19.71 (was 14.92), 57.3% VAP black: This has the last and largest piece of the chopped up old HD-8. The old HD-12 was nearly 70% VAP black by the end of the decade, so it needed a nice large slice of the white liberal eastern suburbs.


HD-13: Nickie Antonio (D) 28.52 (was 28.96): This is largely the same as the old district but picks up a little more of Cleveland’s Jefferson neighborhood to meet population equity. This is the most liberal district based primarily on the west side.


HD-14: Mike Foley (D) 40.24 (was 36.33): This is based on the old west side Irish area, but with enough of the poorer neighborhoods to keep it safely Democratic. John McCain considerably over-performed the generic Republican here. It loses part of Cleveland’s Jefferson neighborhood but gains the City of Brooklyn and Middleburgh Heights.


HD-15: OPEN 42.48 (was 44.19): This largely consists of the Polish and Eastern European neighborhoods to the southwest of Cleveland. It will be an open seat in 2012 to replace term-limited incumbent Timothy DeGeeter. This seat becomes marginally more Democratic by moving back into the City of Cleveland to take some of the Old Brooklyn neighborhood. This seat is also an area that could potentially be put into play by Republicans under the right circumstances and the area has been trending in the Republican direction in recent years. Still, State House races are downballot enough to keep this in the Democratic column for now.


HD-16: Nan Baker (R) 51.89: This district remains unchanged and is one of the safer Republican seat in Cuyahoga County as Nan Baker won by 20+ points in 2010 despite winning a close race in 2008. The collection of west side suburbs it encompasses are a part of an Irish and German white-flight core that has been trending in the Republican direction in recent years.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2012, 10:58:45 pm by Senator TJ »Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5828
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2012, 06:44:20 pm »
Ignore

Part I: Cuyahoga County

HD-8 (was mostly HD-7): Armond Budish (D)  23.17 (was 24.99), 50.3% VAP Black: This combines the districts of term-limited Democrat Kenny Yuko with Democratic minority leader Armond Budish. It loses Clevelandís Collinwood neighborhood in favor of heavily African American East Cleveland and Clevelandís Euclid Green neighborhood as well as wealthy liberal Beachwood. I canít imagine Budish likes being thrown into a more working class district instead of his old wealthy liberal one but he actually does lose some black% (Budish is white) so perhaps he doesnít mind too much.
What are the term limits in Ohio, and how many more terms does Budish have?

If it is two years, he could get a pass and then be replaced by a black representative then.  If it is longer, then someone else who wants to be minority leader could provide some assistance to a challenger.  Is there someone like a mayor of East Cleveland who could run?


Logged
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2012, 06:51:34 pm »
Ignore

Part I: Cuyahoga County

HD-8 (was mostly HD-7): Armond Budish (D)  23.17 (was 24.99), 50.3% VAP Black: This combines the districts of term-limited Democrat Kenny Yuko with Democratic minority leader Armond Budish. It loses Clevelandís Collinwood neighborhood in favor of heavily African American East Cleveland and Clevelandís Euclid Green neighborhood as well as wealthy liberal Beachwood. I canít imagine Budish likes being thrown into a more working class district instead of his old wealthy liberal one but he actually does lose some black% (Budish is white) so perhaps he doesnít mind too much.
What are the term limits in Ohio, and how many more terms does Budish have?

If it is two years, he could get a pass and then be replaced by a black representative then.  If it is longer, then someone else who wants to be minority leader could provide some assistance to a challenger.  Is there someone like a mayor of East Cleveland who could run?

Budish will reach his term limit max in 2014, after which he could run for State Senate in an overwhelmingly Democratic seat that is only 37% VAP black. The mayor of East Cleveland Gary Norton would be a great candidate, but I hope he doesn't run because he is doing too much good for East Cleveland!
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2012, 07:59:09 pm »
Ignore

Part II: Northeast Ohio
Lake County

HD-60 (was HD-62): OPEN 48.77 (was 53.37): Under the old map, Lake County had two lean Republican seats and on the new one has one safe Republican seat and one toss-up/slightly lean Dem seat. This is the more Democratic seat vacated by term-limited incumbent Lorraine Fende. The seat becomes more Democratic by losing the very Republican far southern suburbs in Lake County and gaining the urban core of Painesville, which is the most heavily Democratic part of Lake County. The GOP was also encouraged to make this seat as Democratic as possible because it has to be connected to two Cuyahoga County HD’s in a very safely Democratic senate district. Still Lake County is swingy enough that a Republican could win it under the right circumstances.


HD-61 (was HD-63): Ron Young (R) 57.10 (was 53.26): Here is the safely Republican counterpart to HD-60. It picks up the most conservative parts of Lake County and loses Painesville. Part of Mentor, a rather swingy suburb, is also shuffled around to make the numbers and contiguity work.

Geauga/Portage/Ashtabula Counties:

HD-76 (was HD-98): Richard Hollington (R) 66.22 (was 59.86): This district moves south into fairly Republican northern Portage County, mostly to try and make neighboring HD-99 more Republican.


HD-75 (was HD-68): Kathleen Clyder (D) 43.11 (was 45.22): Clyder loses the more Republican northern part of Portage County, most importantly heavily Republican Aurora, and gains more lean Democratic rural territory in southern Portage County. Kent and Ravenna make this seat safely Democratic.


HD-99: Casey Kozlowski (R) 49.17 (was 47.49): Kozlowski moves out of Trumbull County and into heavily Republican Geauga County in an effort to make an Ashtabula-based district a little bit safer for a Republican.

Mahoning Valley:

HD-64: Tom Letson (D) 40.06 (was 38.61): Most of the change here is just the seat expanding northward to adjust for the slower population growth of the Mahoning Valley. The GOP wasn’t able to pack Trumbull County better into one extremely Democratic Niles/Warren seat and another more moderate seat for everything else like with Youngstown in Mahoning County, but perhaps next decade it will be possible.


HD-63 (was HD-65): Sean O’Brien (D) 38.03 (was 37.14): O’Brien grabs Cortland and some more rural territory for population equity but is otherwise unchanged.


HD-58 (was HD-60): Robert Hagan (D) 24.76 (was 22.16): Hagan expands outward into Austintown but remains in a heavily Democratic vote sink.


HD-59 (was HD-60): Ronald Gerberry (D) 46.55 (was 42.26): HD-58 picking up Austintown leaves HD-59 to absorb the southern part of Mahoning County and make it a district that could be competitive under the right circumstances. This should be a Democratic seat for now, but President Obama only received 51% of the vote here and the area is trending in the Republican direction.


HD-5 (was HD-1): Craig Newbold (R) 52.35: This seat is constitutionally mandated as a county (Columbiana) with the appropriate population for a seat to itself. Fortunately for the Ohio GOP, Columbiana County has a slight Republican edge.


Akron/Canton:

HD-34 (was HD-44): Vernon Sykes (D) 25.85 (was 21.52), 39.3% VAP Black: Here are the heavily African American neighborhoods in Akron condensed as much as possible as an “opportunity district” for Sykes, who is African American. This is almost unchanged from last decade


HD-35 (was HD-45): Zach Milkovich (D) 36.74 (was 36.83): Here are the white Democratic parts of Akron, the counterpart to HD-34. It is also virtually unchanged.


HD-36 (was HD-43): Anthony DeVitis (R) 47.92 (was 50.61): DeVitis was appointed to replace Republican Todd McKenney, who vacated his seat for a judicial appointment. DeVitis also seems to have drawn the short straw in redistricting as his seat becomes more Democratic to help keep safe the other Republicans around him. He also has the misfortune of holding the third house seat grouped with the two inner-city Akron seats in a Senate District so the GOP is felt less concerned for his fate.


HD-37 (was HD-42): Kristina Roegner (R) 53.17 (was 52.09): Roegner loses the Democratic part of Cuyahoga Falls to DeVitis in exchange for Twinsburg and Macedonia and becomes about a point safer than before redistricting.


HD-38 (was HD-41): Lynn Staby (R) 53.42 (was 50.26): Staby’s district becomes safer by losing more Democratic Twinsburg and Macedonia in exchange for a slice of rural Stark County in one of the ugliest shaped seats in the state.


HD-49 (was HD-52): Matt Szollosi (D) 38.27 (was 37.48): Canton lost enough population in the decade to allow this seat, after losing some suburban territory, to grab Massillon as well and become an even better Democratic vote sink.


HD-48 (was HD-51): Kurt Schuring (R) 54.33 (was 54.16): Schuring loses Massillon but grabs only marginally less Democratic Perry Township to move a couple tenths of a point safer.


HD-50: Christina Hagan (R) 56.27 (was 56.44): Hagan loses the western third of her district so she can pick up Alliance without taking a political hit.

« Last Edit: April 16, 2012, 11:35:10 pm by Senator TJ »Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5828
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2012, 12:10:48 pm »
Ignore

Part II: Northeast Ohio
Lake County
The GOP was also encouraged to make this seat as Democratic as possible because it has to be connected to two Cuyahoga County HDís in a very safely Democratic senate district.
It wasn't mandatory to connect a Lake HD with two Cuyahoga HD in a senate district.  In fact, it violates the constitution to put the Lake HD in different senate districts.

But there is actually no way to comply with the Ohio constitution with regard to senate districts - both nesting house districts and not unnecessarily splitting counties.

So it comes down to a policy choice, maybe dictated by trying to keep a Republican senate district in Cuyahoga?

Geauga/Portage/Ashtabula Counties:

HD-76 (was HD-98): Richard Hollington (R) 66.22 (was 59.86): This district moves south into fairly Republican northern Portage County, mostly to try and make neighboring HD-99 more Republican.
This map appears to be chopped.
Logged
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2012, 02:40:39 pm »
Ignore

Part II: Northeast Ohio
Lake County
The GOP was also encouraged to make this seat as Democratic as possible because it has to be connected to two Cuyahoga County HDís in a very safely Democratic senate district.
It wasn't mandatory to connect a Lake HD with two Cuyahoga HD in a senate district.  In fact, it violates the constitution to put the Lake HD in different senate districts.

But there is actually no way to comply with the Ohio constitution with regard to senate districts - both nesting house districts and not unnecessarily splitting counties.

So it comes down to a policy choice, maybe dictated by trying to keep a Republican senate district in Cuyahoga?

Quote

Yes. You could also try to attatch some other bordering house district to Cuyahoga County but in order to do so you would have to chop up the three Republican leaning house seats or lose the Republican senate seat. The Republican Party chose what is probably the next best thing for them: making one of the Lake County seats safe and using it to help out making the senate seat with Portage and most of Geauga County safely Republican. On the House side it functions as a bipartisan gerrymander of Lake County.

Geauga/Portage/Ashtabula Counties:

HD-76 (was HD-98): Richard Hollington (R) 66.22 (was 59.86): This district moves south into fairly Republican northern Portage County, mostly to try and make neighboring HD-99 more Republican.
This map appears to be chopped.

Does this look any better? Maybe I need to make them smaller?
Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5828
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2012, 10:21:38 pm »
Ignore

This map appears to be chopped.
Does this look any better? Maybe I need to make them smaller?
Yes.   Can you convert them to 8 bit?
Logged
greenforest32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2577


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2012, 10:31:45 pm »
Ignore

MapMedian DistrictScoreLocation#Safe Dem#Safe Rep
Old HouseDistrict 152.35Columbiana County (all)2840
New HouseDistrict 4854.33Stark County (north-central part)2846
Old SenateDistrict 2052.22Athens, Washington, Muskingum, +more914
New SenateDistrict 1853.22most of Lake, Geauga, Portage916

Out of curiosity what was the last (2000) state redistricting like? Drawn by a D or R trifecta, a bipartisan/split incumbent protection compromise, or by the courts?
Logged
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2012, 10:52:20 pm »
Ignore

MapMedian DistrictScoreLocation#Safe Dem#Safe Rep
Old HouseDistrict 152.35Columbiana County (all)2840
New HouseDistrict 4854.33Stark County (north-central part)2846
Old SenateDistrict 2052.22Athens, Washington, Muskingum, +more914
New SenateDistrict 1853.22most of Lake, Geauga, Portage916

Out of curiosity what was the last (2000) state redistricting like? Drawn by a D or R trifecta, a bipartisan/split incumbent protection compromise, or by the courts?

The Republicans also held the trifecta in 2000.
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2012, 10:53:39 pm »
Ignore

This map appears to be chopped.
Does this look any better? Maybe I need to make them smaller?
Yes.   Can you convert them to 8 bit?


I'm in the process of converting them to .gif.
Logged

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27413
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2012, 11:02:44 pm »
Ignore

Are you going to critique the Pubs legislative gerrymander TJ?  Where they missed an opportunity, or did a dummymander? 
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2012, 11:16:44 pm »
Ignore

Are you going to critique the Pubs legislative gerrymander TJ?  Where they missed an opportunity, or did a dummymander? 

I'm trying to, but the Pubs did a good enough job that there's not much left there for the taking. Plus Ohio's legislative rules are very strict so you there's not a ton you can do to begin with.

The only potential missed opportunity I found thus far is the split of Trumbull County could have been done to make one of the two seats marginally competitive if you draw Warren, Niles, and Girard into one seat and leave the other for the rest of the county.

District 7 in Cuyahoga County can be made more Republican if you swap out Berea for Middleburg Heights and take one Berea precinct along the highway for contiguity but the Pubbie in HD-7 happens to live in Berea so that won't work either.
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2012, 02:47:01 pm »
Ignore

Part III: North-Central Ohio

HD-55 (was HD-57): Matt Lundy (D) 46.02 (was 49.71): The GOP decided to sacrifice any chance of winning this seat in order to make the neighboring HD-57 safer. This becomes more Democratic by picking up the rest of Democratic Elyria and losing Republican Avon and some rural territory. Ideally the GOP would probably like to get Avon lake out of here too but the population numbers simply donít work.


HD-56: Dan Ramos (D) 34.45 (was 30.16): Ramos loses his portion of Elyria in exchange for Amherst, Vermillion, and sort rural territory. The seat becomes a little of a Democratic pack now that the GOP have more or less conceded HD-55 as well, so that HD-57 becomes more Republican.


HD-57 (was HD-58): Terry Boose (R) 54.16 (was 53.27): Boose looses his arm into western Lorain County for a more Republican arm into eastern Lorain County. The GOP likely wanted to make use of the growing Republican pocket in the northeast corner of Lorain County, which is similar to the Republican-trending pocket in the northwest corner of Cuyahoga County. Boose also loses eastern Seneca County for population reasons.


HD-69: Bill Batchelder (R) 57.98 (was 55.75): House Speaker Bill Batchelder gets a couple points safer by losing northwestern Medina County for more Republican southeastern Medina County. Most importantly he swaps most of Brunswick out for Wadsworth. Of course the GOP would want to protect the Speaker.


HD-70 (was HD-97): David Hall (R) 58.58 (was 63.29): This remains one of the most hideous looking seats in the state as it still collects patches of counties left by other districts for population reasons, but it now has all of Ashland, only the more moderate parts of Holmes, and a more moderate slice of Medina to unpack it a little bit to help HD-69 and HD-98 by putting the Amish part of Holmes with swingy Tuscarawas County.


HD-1 (was HD-3): Ron Amstutz (R) 60.65: Like before, Wayne County has the correct population for a district to itself. Like before, it is heavily Republican.


HD-2 (was HD-73): Jay Goyal (D) 58.58 (was 57.17): Under the last census, Richland County was too large for a single district, but is now collapsed to a single countywide seat. This is a seat where my partisan index completely breaks down, based on presidential and statewide races it should be safely Republican but is held by a Democrat. Even more impressively, 2010 was the only year in the past decade where this seat had an election that was even kind of close. The part of the county gained by the seat is more Republican than the rest of Richland County, McCain won every new precinct and most of them by 20+ points, but it still might not be enough for the GOP to unseat Goyal who won by 9% in the 2010 wave. Goyal will be term-limited in 2014 and the GOP probably likes their chances in an open-seat race.


HD-87 (was HD-82): Jeff McClain (R) 62.80 (was 58.96): McClain becomes much safer by moving out of Marion and into Morrow County. He also grabs the most Democratic part of Seneca County easily available since he is already very, very safe.


HD-88 (was HD-81): Rex Damschroder (R) 53.51 (was 52.88): Damschroder picks up the eastern third of Seneca County in exchange for loses his sliver of Ottawa County and the southwest corner of Seneca County. This should make Damschroder about 0.7% safer but not completely safe as you never will completely safe with Sandusky and Seneca Counties. Despite the seemingly close numbers, this seat has been in Republican hands the entire decade and hasnít seen any kind of erosion of Republican support.


HD-89 (was HD-80): Dennis Murray (D) 45.86 (was 45.54): This seat is basically a throw-away for the GOP even though it could be competitive under exactly the right circumstances. It picks up the rest of Ottawa County for population equity. Considering this is my seat, I sort of wish it could be competitive but sort of like the alter-ego of HD-88, donít let the seemingly close numbers fool you, this is Democratic seat especially down-ballot.
Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5828
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2012, 05:57:57 pm »
Ignore

Part III: North-Central Ohio


HD-57 (was HD-58): Terry Boose (R) 54.16 (was 53.27): Boose looses his arm into western Lorain County for a more Republican arm into eastern Lorain County. The GOP likely wanted to make use of the growing Republican pocket in the northeast corner of Lorain County, which is similar to the Republican-trending pocket in the northwest corner of Cuyahoga County. Boose also loses eastern Seneca County for population reasons.
Where is Boose from?   This seemed to be one of the more uglier districts.  Lorain and Huron make real good sense for population reasons, but couldn't you just keep southern parts of Lorain County with Huron?
Logged
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2012, 08:53:12 pm »
Ignore

Part III: North-Central Ohio


HD-57 (was HD-58): Terry Boose (R) 54.16 (was 53.27): Boose looses his arm into western Lorain County for a more Republican arm into eastern Lorain County. The GOP likely wanted to make use of the growing Republican pocket in the northeast corner of Lorain County, which is similar to the Republican-trending pocket in the northwest corner of Cuyahoga County. Boose also loses eastern Seneca County for population reasons.
Where is Boose from?   This seemed to be one of the more uglier districts.  Lorain and Huron make real good sense for population reasons, but couldn't you just keep southern parts of Lorain County with Huron?


Boose lives in Norwalk in Huron County, so thet theoretically could have attached any part of Lorain County they wanted as long it is contiguous, has population equity, etc. The reason why the southern part alone won't work is that there aren't enough people in just the southern part, unless you include Oberlin, which is like 90%+ Democratic. It needs to absorb some population center somewhere in Lorain County and the most Republican population center they could have chosen is Avon. So they basically said, 'screw how it looks, we're making it as Republican as we can'.
Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5828
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2012, 01:36:56 am »
Ignore

Part III: North-Central Ohio


HD-57 (was HD-58): Terry Boose (R) 54.16 (was 53.27): Boose looses his arm into western Lorain County for a more Republican arm into eastern Lorain County. The GOP likely wanted to make use of the growing Republican pocket in the northeast corner of Lorain County, which is similar to the Republican-trending pocket in the northwest corner of Cuyahoga County. Boose also loses eastern Seneca County for population reasons.
Where is Boose from?   This seemed to be one of the more uglier districts.  Lorain and Huron make real good sense for population reasons, but couldn't you just keep southern parts of Lorain County with Huron?


Boose lives in Norwalk in Huron County, so thet theoretically could have attached any part of Lorain County they wanted as long it is contiguous, has population equity, etc. The reason why the southern part alone won't work is that there aren't enough people in just the southern part, unless you include Oberlin, which is like 90%+ Democratic. It needs to absorb some population center somewhere in Lorain County and the most Republican population center they could have chosen is Avon. So they basically said, 'screw how it looks, we're making it as Republican as we can'.
That makes sense for someone from Huron County, especially he would be much more aware that the eastern part of Seneca County was being lost (where I just see it as a slightly smaller area being divided into 3 districts).

The part that bugged me is that they had to split North Ridgeville to get to Avon.   So basically their compliance with the constitution was "it was "not feasible" to connect Avon to Huron County, and not cut off the southeastern corner of the county, and stay within popularion limits, without splitting North Ridgeville", whereas I would read the constitution as requiring such a split if there was no feasible way of staying within population limits and not cutting townships or municipalities.
Logged
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4962
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2012, 01:58:26 pm »
Ignore

Part IV: Northwest Ohio

HD-3 (was HD-6): Randy Gardner (R) 50.85: Wood County must be kept whole, so the Republicans can’t do much to help Gardner out here. Even with the close partisan statistics, this district never has been competitive. Gardner won the open seat by 23 points in 2008 and the closest race here last decade was in 2006 when Bob Latta won by 13 points amid the Democratic wave. The GOP has a clear advantage in candidate strength in Wood County.


HD-44 (was HD-48): Michael Ashford (D) 18.65(was 18.76) 46.50% VAP Black (was 47.35%): Ashford picks up a bit more of the south side of Toledo to account for population equity. (In Toledo the directional sides of the city are considered by the river, eg. the south side is actually southwest.) The partisan and racial statistics for this district do not change much as it remains a heavily Democratic minority influence seat.


HD-45 (was HD-49): Matt Szollosi (D) 35.59(was 36.44): Szollosi loses the east side and the eastern suburbs to become more compact in the north and west sides of Toledo. The seat becomes a hair more Democratic by losing the (still heavily Democratic) eastern suburbs.


HD-46 (was HD-47): Teresa Fedor (D) 40.27(was 33.17): This seat moves out of Toledo proper and into both the eastern and western suburbs. It also moves 7 points in the Republican direction, though it is still a safely Democratic seat. The only Republican territory in the new HD-46 is in the western suburbs, which are overwhelmed by the south and east sides of Toledo and the eastern suburbs.


HD-47 (was HD-46): Barbara Sears (R) 56.02(was 52.37): Sears loses politically marginal Maumee, Holland, and most of Springfield Township in exchange most of Fulton County, making Sears much safer. This became possible because the Toledo area is growing more slowly than most of Ohio so the seats in its metropolitan area are able to move further out of the city. This was doubly important for the Republicans because it is combined in a somewhat marginal state senate seat with HD-3 and HD-89. This district is drawn to include the most Republican parts of Fulton County and leaves out the more marginal southeast corner and Swanton.


HD-81 (was HD-75): Lynn Wachtmann (R) 63.39(was 66.76): Wachtmann loses Paulding and Van Wert Counties to take slightly more marginal Williams and the more marginal parts of Fulton left out of HD-47. The rearrangement between HD-81 and HD-82 makes the partisan statistics nearly even instead of having a super-Republican HD-81 and somewhat less Republican but still safe HD-82. Even though Wachtmann loses over three points, she still is anchored by extremely Republican Henry and Putnam Counties. Wachtmann is one of the most conservative Republicans in the statehouse and under the new map she can safely remain so.


HD-82 (was HD-74): Bruce Goodwin (R) 63.62(was 58.73): Goodwin becomes 5 points safer as a result of the rearrangement between HD-81 and HD-82 as he loses Fulton and Williams Counties for Paulding, Van Wert, and a chunk of Auglaize. There isn’t a whole lot of marginal territory in northwest Ohio outside of the Toledo area and this should be a safe Republican seat under any imaginable circumstances.


HD-83 (was HD-76): Robert Sprague (R) 65.21(was 66.22): Sprague loses much of Auglaize County and gains a small piece of Logan County, but his district is mostly unchanged. Anchored by heavily Republican Findlay, where Sprague served as the City Auditor before his appointment to the state house in 2011, HD-83 is also safely Republican.


HD-4: Matt Huffman (R) 62.75: Allen County is another county required to be kept whole by Ohio’s constitution and another that is safely Republican even if it is less Republican than its neighboring counties mainly because it is 11% VAP black and most of its neighbors are close to 100% white. Huffman was the sponsor of Ohio’s judicial reform amendment that failed by popular vote last November in a seemingly random vote that transcended party lines and every other social or economic cleavage I can think of. Huffman should be completely safe here.


HD-84 (was HD-77): Jim Buchy (R) 73.89(was 70.76): Buchy gets the most Republican district in Ohio even though it changes considerably by moving north to Auglaize and Shelby Counties instead of Preble. This becomes less a string of counties along the Indiana border and more an upper Miami Valley district.


HD-85 (was HD-78): John Adams (R) 65.55(was 68.36): Adams picks up most of Logan County and loses his piece of Auglaize and part of Shelby County. The partisan numbers haven’t changed much and Adams should remain safe until he reaches the term limits in 2014 and the seat should remain safely Republican for the decade.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2012, 02:00:27 pm by Senator TJ »Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines