CO: PPP: Obama up double-digits
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  CO: PPP: Obama up double-digits
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Author Topic: CO: PPP: Obama up double-digits  (Read 11561 times)
Rowan
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« on: April 10, 2012, 12:26:57 PM »

Colorado President(Rasmussen)

Obama: 53%
Romney: 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_041012.pdf
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: April 10, 2012, 12:30:41 PM »

Wow.

At this point in 2008, Obama was only up 3 there.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2012, 12:33:09 PM »

Hmm, Colorado Indies seem to HATE the GOP.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2012, 12:51:36 PM »

Obama's up 72-17 among voters under 30. I think we know what way Colorado's going to trend in the future. Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2012, 12:59:41 PM »

Obama's up 72-17 among voters under 30. I think we know what way Colorado's going to trend in the future. Tongue

CO is full of young hipster skiing/snowboarding marihuana-smoking, gay-loving people with I-Phones, college education and in professional occupations. Mixed with the Hispanics, Blacks and Asians it's the poster child of an Obama state. And if Bennet won it in 2010, I don't see why Obama shouldn't win it in November. It's probably still going to narrow a bit, but if had had to bet I would bet a good amount on Obama.
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5280
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« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2012, 01:02:23 PM »

Obama's up 72-17 among voters under 30. I think we know what way Colorado's going to trend in the future. Tongue

CO is full of young hipster skiing/snowboarding marihuana-smoking, gay-loving people with I-Phones, college education and in professional occupations. Mixed with the Hispanics, Blacks and Asians it's the poster child of an Obama state. And if Bennet won it in 2010, I don't see why Obama shouldn't win it in November. It's probably still going to narrow a bit, but if had had to bet I would bet a good amount on Obama.
It's already turned into a mini California, runned down expensive place to live, full of undocumented people (illegals).  
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2012, 01:32:33 PM »

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820120407108
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greenforest32
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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2012, 01:34:49 PM »

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Interesting how Paul does the best of the four Republicans
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Napoleon
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« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2012, 01:44:08 PM »

Interesting partisan numbers.

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 13%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 22%
Moderate......................................................... 28%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 23%
Very conservative ........................................... 13%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 36%
Republican...................................................... 35%
Independent/Other.......................................... 30%
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2012, 01:57:21 PM »

I think the state GOP in CO sucks or is really weak right now.  I don't know of any strong figures involved in that state and I don't think the guys running for office there have been anything special.  So, I've been thinking that Dems may win state races there, but national races could be different because a strong national candidate transcends a weak state party.   
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Brittain33
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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2012, 02:00:06 PM »

If Romney's getting trounced in NV, CO, and NM, does that point to him seeking a Latino running mate to help overcome some of his deficit, or does it mean he writes them off and sticks to the Ohio/Virginia route to victory?
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2012, 02:06:31 PM »

well the general started like 15 minutes ago so I think he can now, for the first time, focus on beating Obama in those states.  polls will probably tighten as time goes by.  check back right before he names a VP.   
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5280
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2012, 02:06:49 PM »

I think the state GOP in CO sucks or is really weak right now.  I don't know of any strong figures involved in that state and I don't think the guys running for office there have been anything special.  So, I've been thinking that Dems may win state races there, but national races could be different because a strong national candidate transcends a weak state party.  
It's just the state GOP has been really weak starting 2004, and they haven't done much to change that trend around for a while.  Not sure, but they need to get their act together. If they want to keep on losing elections to the DEM, then it's shows them they don't care.

Romney may not write off CO and NV yet, but he can still win without these states.  He would have to focus more on OH, VA and FL to win.  CO is becoming a joke state to be honest for the GOP.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2012, 02:09:54 PM »

I think the state GOP in CO sucks or is really weak right now.  I don't know of any strong figures involved in that state and I don't think the guys running for office there have been anything special.  So, I've been thinking that Dems may win state races there, but national races could be different because a strong national candidate transcends a weak state party.  
It's just the state GOP has been really weak starting 2004, and they haven't done much to change that trend around for a while.  Not sure, but they need to get their act together. If they want to keep on losing elections to the DEM, then it's shows them they don't care.

Romney may not write off CO and NV yet, but he can still win without these states.  He would have to focus more on OH, VA and FL to win.  CO is becoming a joke state to be honest for the GOP.

Obama could lose OH, VA and FL and would still win with 272 votes if he wins IA and NH too.
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change08
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« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2012, 02:25:33 PM »

Considering how (relatively) well the Dems did here in 2010, this shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2012, 02:54:22 PM »

Colorado Is starting to turn Into a slight Blue state after years as Red state.Clinton only won In
1992 here because Perot got 29 percent of the vote.It slowly started turning back In 2004.Kerry lost by 8 compared to Gore losing by 15.And democrats started doing well In state and congressional races In 2004.Back In 2010 Democrats keep the Governor's office and Bennet was elected to full term In Senate.Colorado has a decent population of Hispanics.The ones Romney and Republicans have gone out of their way to ailenate.

If Obama wins the Kerry States plus Nevada,New Mexico and Colorado he wins the election.
The problem for Romney Is apart from Indina he Isn't ahead In any states Obama won.PPP
even has had Missouri,and Arizona tied.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2012, 03:11:18 PM »

Obama's up 72-17 among voters under 30. I think we know what way Colorado's going to trend in the future. Tongue

The Massachusetts of the West.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2012, 03:12:29 PM »

I think latinos are also an influence here. They are the reason why Romney won't win NV nor NM and why AZ is in play.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2012, 03:15:29 PM »

I think latinos are also an influence here. They are the reason why Romney won't win NV nor NM and why AZ is in play.
I agree with you.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2012, 03:16:14 PM »

The final margin will probably be smaller (this point in primary season always looks better for incumbents), but it shows that the GOP needs to work on appealing to people other than wealthy white men. They should start by dropping the evangelicals and going after closing the gender gap.
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2012, 03:21:05 PM »

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It means that a third party run is inevitable this year. 
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Sbane
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« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2012, 04:07:41 PM »

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Interesting how Paul does the best of the four Republicans

I think Republicans are really underestimating how likely Paul fans are to just sitting out the election or even voting for Obama. And there is a lot of soft Paul support out there, that could theoretically vote Republican but won't vote for this crop, including Romney.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2012, 06:01:56 PM »

Did anyone notice that Obama's numbers among latinos are actually kind of poor?
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backtored
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« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2012, 06:46:55 PM »

This thread is a riot.

Virtually everybody agrees that Colorado will be very tight.  I don't have time to correct the multitude of erroneous statements mentioned here, but let me take a moment to correct just a few of them.

1.) No, Colorado is not "full of pot-smoking hipsters, ski bums, gays, etc."  It sounds like somebody's forgotten that Boulder comprises approximately 5% of the total state population.  Shocking though it may be, South Park isn't actually a good look at what Colorado is like.  And, frankly, as a CU-Boulder alum, even Boulder isn't quite like that.  Colorado is generally a right-leaning state.

2.) The Colorado GOP is actually is pretty good shape here.  We'll likely maintain our 4-3 congressional split, and might even pick up CD-7.  We'll also probably keep the state house, and possibly pick up the state Senate.  And we'll do all of that even with an Obama win here.  If Romney wins, we'll likely pick up CD-7 and both chambers of the legislature.  If Obama wins, the status quo will hold in terms of statewide politics.  That's not wishful thinking, but just basic numbers.  I'm active in local GOP politics, in Jefferson County, specifically, and the feeling here is very, very optimistic.  Keep in mind, we actually made legislative gains in 2008, despite the huge Democratic wave.  The GOP is in better financial shape here than the Democrats, and the GOP has opened up a significant active voter registration lead (see below).  It's hard to get upset about one early Democratic poll when everything else is going so well.

3.) In terms of the poll itself, did anybody actually dig into it?  Obama is getting only 58% of the Latino vote.  The Latino vote here has actually been trending right for a while.  Kerry did better than Obama among Latinos in Colorado, and the trend evidently continues. 

Second, active voter registration is R: 37 D: 32 and U: 30.  And the GOP has been out-registering Democrats by a sizable 6,000 vote margin since only January.  PPP has been doing their thing with swing states for a few months, and it's so old.  When they actually screen for likely voters, and get the actual voter numbers right, you'd find a very close race in a state that has been trending GOP for a couple of years now.

4.) 2010 was actually a good GOP year in Colorado.  We took back the state house, picked up a state senate seat, won 3 of 5 statewide races, picked up two Congressional seats to get a majority GOP delegation, and in 2011 the GOP helped knock down a tax hike for education by a 2:1 margin.  The Senate race was blown, the gubernatorial race was lost when Scott McInnis' campaign imploded.  Other than that, it was a good year here.

5.) The Massachusetts of the west?  Yeah, sure.
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backtored
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« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2012, 06:48:30 PM »

Did anyone notice that Obama's numbers among latinos are actually kind of poor?

If the Obama campaign picks up 58% of the Latino vote, it loses the election in Colorado.  As far as I'm concerned, those are the only real numbers that matter here.  I don't buy the numbers among independents, and unless Obama completely dominates unaffiliateds and gets a 2008-esque turnout among Democrats, those Latino numbers will doom his chances here, and perhaps elsewhere.
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