CO: PPP: Obama up double-digits
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Author Topic: CO: PPP: Obama up double-digits  (Read 11558 times)
ajb
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« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2012, 07:08:02 PM »

Did anyone notice that Obama's numbers among latinos are actually kind of poor?

If the Obama campaign picks up 58% of the Latino vote, it loses the election in Colorado.  As far as I'm concerned, those are the only real numbers that matter here.  I don't buy the numbers among independents, and unless Obama completely dominates unaffiliateds and gets a 2008-esque turnout among Democrats, those Latino numbers will doom his chances here, and perhaps elsewhere.
Mind you, why would you buy those Latino numbers, but not the independent numbers? I'd suggest that it might be a wash between the two -- Obama probably won't do as well as this among independents as this poll suggests, but Romney is also the least Latino-friendly candidate the Republicans have had in a decade or more, especially on the issue of immigration, so Obama's likely, in the end, to do better than 58% among Latinos.
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cope1989
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« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2012, 07:51:07 PM »

Colorado Is starting to turn Into a slight Blue state after years as Red state.Clinton only won In
1992 here because Perot got 29 percent of the vote.It slowly started turning back In 2004.Kerry lost by 8 compared to Gore losing by 15.And democrats started doing well In state and congressional races In 2004.Back In 2010 Democrats keep the Governor's office and Bennet was elected to full term In Senate.Colorado has a decent population of Hispanics.The ones Romney and Republicans have gone out of their way to ailenate.

If Obama wins the Kerry States plus Nevada,New Mexico and Colorado he wins the election.
The problem for Romney Is apart from Indina he Isn't ahead In any states Obama won.PPP
even has had Missouri,and Arizona tied.

The overall gist is correct, I totally agree with your analysis. But, Gore only lost by 8 and Kerry only lost by 5

And you're right about the Clinton years. Colorado was beginning to turn but Clinton lost it in 1996 despite improving on his national margin of victory. I suspect it was part of a larger trend in the entire Rocky mountain region. Maybe Clinton was perceived in 1992 as less of a fiscal conservative and made him more palatable to the voters in the wild wild west. But by 1996, he was seen to be more fiscally liberal after the budget fights. That probably improved his margins in traditionally big government states like New York and Massachusetts, but decreased his margin out west where they tend to be more anti government on all facets.

I think the Democratic party has moved to the left on social issues but has trended more to the right on fiscal issues, which I think has really helped in states like Colorado. It's full of granola type liberals who like Obama's more progressive stance on social issues and can't stand right wing moral rhetoric, but since Clinton the party has been perceived as less anti business which help them among suburban types out there.

And I know that a lot of Republicans might want to chime in and say that the Democrats have never been more big govt than they are now, but I don't really agree with that. Since Clinton they have really changed their tone. During the days on Reagan/Bush, democratic presidential candidates didn't seem to even touch on the issue of business. They prided themselves more as the keepers of social welfare programs. But when Clinton won in 1992 because of the "economy stupid" the party realized that a lot of their future success depended on their promises to improve the economy.

So they've kind of shifted their views on business to pick up those upscale suburban voters and that's the reason they have continuously won a handful of states that haven't voted Republican since 1988. Like Pennsylvania, Illinois and California.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2012, 08:15:12 PM »

This thread is a riot.

Virtually everybody agrees that Colorado will be very tight.  I don't have time to correct the multitude of erroneous statements mentioned here, but let me take a moment to correct just a few of them.

1.) No, Colorado is not "full of pot-smoking hipsters, ski bums, gays, etc."  It sounds like somebody's forgotten that Boulder comprises approximately 5% of the total state population.  Shocking though it may be, South Park isn't actually a good look at what Colorado is like.  And, frankly, as a CU-Boulder alum, even Boulder isn't quite like that.  Colorado is generally a right-leaning state.

2.) The Colorado GOP is actually is pretty good shape here.  We'll likely maintain our 4-3 congressional split, and might even pick up CD-7.  We'll also probably keep the state house, and possibly pick up the state Senate.  And we'll do all of that even with an Obama win here.  If Romney wins, we'll likely pick up CD-7 and both chambers of the legislature.  If Obama wins, the status quo will hold in terms of statewide politics.  That's not wishful thinking, but just basic numbers.  I'm active in local GOP politics, in Jefferson County, specifically, and the feeling here is very, very optimistic.  Keep in mind, we actually made legislative gains in 2008, despite the huge Democratic wave.  The GOP is in better financial shape here than the Democrats, and the GOP has opened up a significant active voter registration lead (see below).  It's hard to get upset about one early Democratic poll when everything else is going so well.

3.) In terms of the poll itself, did anybody actually dig into it?  Obama is getting only 58% of the Latino vote.  The Latino vote here has actually been trending right for a while.  Kerry did better than Obama among Latinos in Colorado, and the trend evidently continues. 

Second, active voter registration is R: 37 D: 32 and U: 30.  And the GOP has been out-registering Democrats by a sizable 6,000 vote margin since only January.  PPP has been doing their thing with swing states for a few months, and it's so old.  When they actually screen for likely voters, and get the actual voter numbers right, you'd find a very close race in a state that has been trending GOP for a couple of years now.

4.) 2010 was actually a good GOP year in Colorado.  We took back the state house, picked up a state senate seat, won 3 of 5 statewide races, picked up two Congressional seats to get a majority GOP delegation, and in 2011 the GOP helped knock down a tax hike for education by a 2:1 margin.  The Senate race was blown, the gubernatorial race was lost when Scott McInnis' campaign imploded.  Other than that, it was a good year here.

5.) The Massachusetts of the west?  Yeah, sure.

Okay. Spin aside, this is still the same state that Obama won by nine last time and is leading by thirteen this time around. I don't think "everyone agrees" that Colorado will be "very tight". I'm not saying it won't be tight, necessarily, but as of now there's no indication that Colorado's particularly close.

I expect it to be ultimately comparable to Wisconsin - Romney will make a halfhearted attempt to win it, but it's not part of his path to 270, and will stay blue by a decent margin.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #28 on: April 10, 2012, 08:52:09 PM »

So what is Romney's path to 270? I don't see it.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2012, 08:55:07 PM »

So what is Romney's path to 270? I don't see it.

Must win:

IN
NC
FL

Win at least 2-3 of these:

NH
OH
NV
VA
CO

He won't make it to 270, of course. He may not even hit 150.
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change08
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« Reply #30 on: April 10, 2012, 08:59:59 PM »

So what is Romney's path to 270? I don't see it.

Without CO, he gets to 272 with:

2008 + IN + NC + VA + OH + FL + (NV or IA).

Don't see NV flipping if CO has swung this much. Even Iowa's probably more viable, but that's not exactly likely either. For Romney to have a realistic chance, Obama needs to start losing in states where the last Democrat they didn't vote for was Mike Dukakis... and President Obama is just not a Michael Dukakis candidate.
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« Reply #31 on: April 10, 2012, 10:07:42 PM »

I'm going to say this and make it simple, Romney needs to at least 'try' to win this state and not pull a John McCain 2.0. 
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #32 on: April 10, 2012, 11:21:57 PM »

Anybody who's doubting that CO is now effectively a blue state is living in 2004. The Republican Party isn't the same party as it was 8, hell, even 4 years ago. CO Republicanism by and large does not mesh well with Alabama Republicanism, which is effectively running the ideology of the Republican Party at this point. Obama's campaign forever changed the landscape in places like CO by registering tens of thousands of Latino voters that will forever be engaged in the political process and will (at least in political terms) forever be aligned against the Republican Party.

In their quest to "find a true conservative", "champion 'true' conservative values" and the like, I don't think many hardline conservatives have taken the time to look back and see how many people they've either thrown off the train or have jumped off voluntarily.
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« Reply #33 on: April 10, 2012, 11:29:59 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2012, 11:32:16 PM by RockyIce »

Anybody who's doubting that CO is now effectively a blue state is living in 2004. The Republican Party isn't the same party as it was 8, hell, even 4 years ago. CO Republicanism by and large does not mesh well with Alabama Republicanism, which is effectively running the ideology of the Republican Party at this point. Obama's campaign forever changed the landscape in places like CO by registering tens of thousands of Latino voters that will forever be engaged in the political process and will (at least in political terms) forever be aligned against the Republican Party.

In their quest to "find a true conservative", "champion 'true' conservative values" and the like, I don't think many hardline conservatives have taken the time to look back and see how many people they've either thrown off the train or have jumped off voluntarily.
And you have to question how many of those votes are fraud, and most likely the Democrat party wants to court as many illegal votes as possible to keep CO in the blue column for future elections.  I don't buy it one bit, you people make me sick to my stomach. CO is a melting pot for west coast Liberalism and idiots.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #34 on: April 10, 2012, 11:32:54 PM »

Anybody who's doubting that CO is now effectively a blue state is living in 2004. The Republican Party isn't the same party as it was 8, hell, even 4 years ago. CO Republicanism by and large does not mesh well with Alabama Republicanism, which is effectively running the ideology of the Republican Party at this point. Obama's campaign forever changed the landscape in places like CO by registering tens of thousands of Latino voters that will forever be engaged in the political process and will (at least in political terms) forever be aligned against the Republican Party.

In their quest to "find a true conservative", "champion 'true' conservative values" and the like, I don't think many hardline conservatives have taken the time to look back and see how many people they've either thrown off the train or have jumped off voluntarily.
And you have to question how many of those votes are fraud, and most likely the Democrat party wants to court as many illegal votes as possible to keep CO in the blue column as long as possible in future election.  I don't buy it one bit, you people make me sick to my stomach.

Woah man, lay off the kool-aid.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #35 on: April 10, 2012, 11:41:24 PM »

i wouldn't dance on CO's grave just yet. Although the CO GOP has their issues, they have a huge base of voters in most of El Paso, Douglas and pockets of Arapahoe and Jefferson counties. Those areas are also the fastest growing parts of the state. Also, Buck actually won Indies in 2010 despite being a flawed candidate. I think that Colorado will probably trend towards the democrats in the future but if you've read any of Sean Trende's book, a lot of trends can be suddenly reversed.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #36 on: April 10, 2012, 11:42:10 PM »

And you have to question how many of those votes are fraud, and most likely the Democrat party wants to court as many illegal votes as possible to keep CO in the blue column for future elections.  I don't buy it one bit, you people make me sick to my stomach. CO is a melting pot for west coast Liberalism and idiots.

Yes, you have to question, but only if you're a racist idiot. Obama won CO in 2008 by a larger margin (215,000) than all of the illegal immigrants estimated to be in Colorado - of all ages (144,000). You seem to forget that there are over 1,000,000 Latinos in CO that can by all definitions of the law, legally vote.

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ajb
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« Reply #37 on: April 11, 2012, 12:39:30 AM »

And you have to question how many of those votes are fraud, and most likely the Democrat party wants to court as many illegal votes as possible to keep CO in the blue column for future elections.  I don't buy it one bit, you people make me sick to my stomach. CO is a melting pot for west coast Liberalism and idiots.

Yes, you have to question, but only if you're a racist idiot. Obama won CO in 2008 by a larger margin (215,000) than all of the illegal immigrants estimated to be in Colorado - of all ages (144,000). You seem to forget that there are over 1,000,000 Latinos in CO that can by all definitions of the law, legally vote.



But why let facts get in the way?
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #38 on: April 11, 2012, 12:41:29 AM »

Anyone that mentions that illegals vote does not know what they are talking about.
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bgwah
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« Reply #39 on: April 11, 2012, 12:45:41 AM »

Anybody who's doubting that CO is now effectively a blue state is living in 2004. The Republican Party isn't the same party as it was 8, hell, even 4 years ago. CO Republicanism by and large does not mesh well with Alabama Republicanism, which is effectively running the ideology of the Republican Party at this point. Obama's campaign forever changed the landscape in places like CO by registering tens of thousands of Latino voters that will forever be engaged in the political process and will (at least in political terms) forever be aligned against the Republican Party.

In their quest to "find a true conservative", "champion 'true' conservative values" and the like, I don't think many hardline conservatives have taken the time to look back and see how many people they've either thrown off the train or have jumped off voluntarily.
And you have to question how many of those votes are fraud, and most likely the Democrat party wants to court as many illegal votes as possible to keep CO in the blue column for future elections.  I don't buy it one bit, you people make me sick to my stomach. CO is a melting pot for west coast Liberalism and idiots.

Poor grammar, no creativity, generic insults... I give your troll performance a D-. I'd recommend adding some form of humor, or at least trying to take offensive positions on sensitive issues (something like Trayvon Martin).
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #40 on: April 11, 2012, 06:40:02 AM »

I expect it to be ultimately comparable to Wisconsin - Romney will make a halfhearted attempt to win it, but it's not part of his path to 270, and will stay blue by a decent margin.
Obama could win Wisconsin by 0.4% like Kerry or 0.22% like Gore, but than he'd have to go around slashing bus tires, have 10,000 unverifiable votes in Milwaukee, have more 'Votes' than 'Votes cast,' have felons vote illegally, engage in electioneering, and suspend Wisconsin voter id laws.  You know like the last three presidential campaigns.   
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #41 on: April 11, 2012, 06:44:38 AM »

CO is a melting pot for west coast Liberalism and idiots.

Judging by your sig, you are in the latter category.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #42 on: April 11, 2012, 07:01:10 AM »

CO is a melting pot for west coast Liberalism and idiots.

Judging by your sig, you are in the latter category.

Yes, the first to personally attack (i.e. lefties) are VERY smart.  We know this because they are always saying so.  Do some soul searching.  We love you too, you know.     
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opebo
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« Reply #43 on: April 11, 2012, 07:18:16 AM »

So what is Romney's path to 270? I don't see it.

Without CO, he gets to 272 with:

2008 + IN + NC + VA + OH + FL + (NV or IA).

Don't see NV flipping if CO has swung this much. Even Iowa's probably more viable, but that's not exactly likely either. For Romney to have a realistic chance, Obama needs to start losing in states where the last Democrat they didn't vote for was Mike Dukakis... and President Obama is just not a Michael Dukakis candidate.

Doesn't recent polling suggest that Michigan is probably a better prospect for Romney than Iowa?  Or even Pennsylvania. I've no idea how useful the polling is in that sense..

Seems to me that Romney can safely assume Indiana this time, will have to fight just a bit for North Carolina, and a bit more for Florida, but those two look reasonably positive for him, while Colorado and Nevada look beyond the pale.

New Hampshire is a very strong possibility, and while Ohio and Virginia look quite bad for him, both Pennsylvania and Michigan look closer than expected.

While this map is still his most likely threading of the needle:



I think this map is more likely than the one below it:





However of course this is my prediction and I stand by it:



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Tender Branson
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« Reply #44 on: April 11, 2012, 11:12:57 AM »

Obama's up 72-17 among voters under 30. I think we know what way Colorado's going to trend in the future. Tongue

CO is full of young hipster skiing/snowboarding marihuana-smoking, gay-loving people with I-Phones, college education and in professional occupations. Mixed with the Hispanics, Blacks and Asians it's the poster child of an Obama state. And if Bennet won it in 2010, I don't see why Obama shouldn't win it in November. It's probably still going to narrow a bit, but if had had to bet I would bet a good amount on Obama.

From PPP's twitters:

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Wink
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #45 on: April 11, 2012, 11:40:37 AM »

Mitt is a civil union guy, what's Obama's position??? Lie and do something after the election or "evolving" Huh
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King
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« Reply #46 on: April 11, 2012, 11:42:58 AM »

CO is a melting pot for west coast Liberalism and idiots.

Judging by your sig, you are in the latter category.

Yes, the first to personally attack (i.e. lefties) are VERY smart.  We know this because they are always saying so.  Do some soul searching.  We love you too, you know.     

Sorry, you haven't been around here long enough to know that Rocky is, in fact, an idiot for apolitical reasons.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #47 on: April 11, 2012, 12:26:48 PM »

This thread is a riot.

Virtually everybody agrees that Colorado will be very tight.  I don't have time to correct the multitude of erroneous statements mentioned here, but let me take a moment to correct just a few of them.

1.) No, Colorado is not "full of pot-smoking hipsters, ski bums, gays, etc."  It sounds like somebody's forgotten that Boulder comprises approximately 5% of the total state population.  Shocking though it may be, South Park isn't actually a good look at what Colorado is like.  And, frankly, as a CU-Boulder alum, even Boulder isn't quite like that.  Colorado is generally a right-leaning state.

Never been in Boulder... but don't expect to see Mork and Mindy living there, either. Don't rely on outmoded stereotypes. The Capone gang does not operate with impunity in Chicago anymore.

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This poll corresponds with a sudden increase in approvals of the President and collapses of Republican campaigns. Maybe Mitt Romney will no longer have to take outrageous right-wing stances to co-opt primary challengers, but nobody can say that the damage hasn't been done.

There are several potential explanations of any trend. One may be that this one is a fluke or a reflection of a transitory movement in the polls nationwide. Another may be that President Obama is doing what highly-successful incumbents do, which is breaking away toward a landslide. See me in November for an explanation.

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Colorado does not have the polarizing characteristics of a real estate collapse (Nevada) or anti-immigrant frenzy (Arizona) that would shift Mexican-Americans even more sharply to the Left.  Colorado is more like New Mexico in that respect. Still, New Mexico is a disaster for Republicans on the whole.

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Trending GOP? The GOP may have been picking up registered voters just in time for the primaries (there is no real action in the Democratic primary for the highest offices). When the Democrats have their GOTV drive in the late summer and early autumn that will be reversed powerfully. Colorado has been drifting D with respect to the US as a whole since 2000. As a Republican you do not want the Presidential election to hinge upon Colorado, which has no Governors who can give help to the Republican nominee.

Colorado went 51-46 for Dubya in 2004, 51-42 for Bush in 2000, and barely went for Dole in 1996 (in a Clinton blowout). Democrats underperformed in Colorado in 1992. Democrats held a Senate seat with an appointed pol and held the Governorship in 2010 in a bad year for Democrats. It has been lean-R in Presidential elections over the last 20 years but close to the national average in 2008, and probably lean-D in 2010. I'd estimate that Colorado is about D+1 now -- probably more D than Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, or Iowa now.

If Colorado is slightly R-leaning and the President has a double-digit lead in Colorado, then the President looks to be on the way to a landslide analogous to Eisenhower in 1956.

 
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But not compared to some moderate and even states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida that voted in GOP extremists who are becoming very unpopular very quickly.

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OK, a little hyperbole. Colorado has competitors in California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and New Mexico.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #48 on: April 11, 2012, 12:40:32 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2012, 02:26:44 PM by AmericanNation »


But not compared to some moderate and even states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida that voted in GOP extremists who are becoming very unpopular very quickly.

Name one "GOP extremist" in Wisconsin or even an "unpopular" GOP office holder.  
hint: there isn't one.  
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ajb
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« Reply #49 on: April 11, 2012, 12:44:57 PM »


But not compared to some moderate and even states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida that voted in GOP extremists who are becoming very unpopular very quickly.

Name one "GOP extremist" in Wisconsin or even an "unpopular" GOP office holder. 
hint: their isn't one. 
LOL.
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