THE only margin that now counts: Obama vs. Romney

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So that would tend towards this prediction:

Give NH to Obama and NC, FL and OH to Romney and I think that is a very realistic prognosis at this point.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect that Romney will win Ohio, and I'd give him a better chance in New Hampshire. If I had a gun held to my head right now my prognosis would be 299-239 or 303-235 Obama, depending upon New Hampshire.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So that would tend towards this prediction:

Give NH to Obama and NC, FL and OH to Romney and I think that is a very realistic prognosis at this point.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect that Romney will win Ohio, and I'd give him a better chance in New Hampshire.

Yeah, but they're both super close, unlike apparently, VA, CO, etc.

Point taken, though some of the closer ones out of Ohio are from pollsters that I find questionable (I think I remember one of the ones showing Obama ahead in New Hampshire striking me as questionable too, to be absolutely fair). Ones out of Virginia have actually been all over the place, though it's very clear that Obama's ahead there. Colorado's out of reach for Romney at this point.