Australian Federal Polls

[Smid]

I think the previous "dead woman walking" thread is a bit presumptive and also a bit disrespectful, so thought I might create this thread for posting poll updates. If the boardbashi disapproves, it could always be moved over to the IGD board.

Latest Newspoll was out today.

The poll was conducted from January to March - State sample sizes were 700 to 1,692. Tasmania was excluded from separate figures because the sample size was too small but included in the national total. The national sample size was 5,741. Margin of error was 1.3% nationally and 3.7% for the state with the smallest sample.

Primary vote at the election:
Party/National/NSW/Vic/Qld/SA/WA/Male/Female/18-34/35-49/50+/Capitals/Non-Capitals
Labor/38.0/37.7/42.8/33.6/40.7/31.2/34/38/34/35/38/40.1/34.8
Coalition/43.6/44.1/39.6/47.4/40.2/50.6/45/42/35/45/48/42.1/45.9
Greens/11.8/10.7/12.7/10.9/12.0/13.1/14/14/22/14/9/12.8/10.3
Others/6.6/7.5/4.9/8.1/7.1/5.1/7/6/9/6/5/5.0/9.0

Primary vote in the latest poll:
Labor/32/31/34/30/34/31/30/34/33/31/32/32/32
Coalition/45/45/44/47/39/48/46/43/37/45/50/44/46
Greens/11/11/13/9/11/10/11/12/17/13/6/13/9
Others/12/13/9/14/16/11/13/11/13/11/12/11/13

Labor 2PP (table doesn't include gender or age breakdown):
Election/50.1/49.5/55.3/44.9/53.2/43.6/52.5/46.6
Poll/46/46/50/42/51/44/47/45

Results of polls taken between the election and the latest poll were also included but I didn't upload them here.

[RogueBeaver]

Is Team Blue above or below 55 in 2PP?

[Smid]

Team blue 2PP would be 54% nationally.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm... Coalition leads even among youth voters. Interesting. Wonder what a seat projection would look like. Slightly better than '96 methinks.

Oh, and Abbott should totally use this line in the debate when those taxes come up: "I want to see you squirm out of this load of rubbish over a number of months. There will be no easy execution for you. You have perpetrated one of the great mischiefs on the Australian public with this thing."

[Smid]

Newspoll out today. Bracketed number reflects change from the election.

Primary Vote
Labor 27 (-11)
Coalition 51 (+7.4)
Greens 11 (-0.
Others 11 (+4.4)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 41 (-9.9)
Coalition 59

[RogueBeaver]

Given that the result of upcoming federal elections is not in doubt, how large a coalition majority should we be expecting in either house? 

Antony Green's swingometer (I'm using the 2010 model) only goes to 57%, a 10-point swing. 57 means 109 Coalitionists, 38 Labor, 3 Other. I'm guessing something like 120 Coalition seats, though I could be wrong.

Smid: When was the last time they polled this badly?

[Smid]

News this morning was using the headline "worst result for Labor in eleven months" and the political commentator reiterated that and mentioned that eleven months ago, Labor's primary vote was one point below this at 26, and was Labor's worst-ever poll result.

[Smid]

Latest Newspoll (11-13 May) released today. 1141 respondents, weighted to reflect population dispersion.

First bracketed number is the election result. Second bracketed number is change since last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor (E=38%) 30 (+3)
Coalition (E=43.6%) 45 (-6)
Greens (E=11.8%) 12 (+1)
Others (E=6.6%) 13 (+2)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (E=50.1%) 45 (+4)
Coalition (E=49.9%) 55 (-4)

Virtually no change in leadership ratings. Big table of numbers relating to the budget.

[RogueBeaver]

What happened? I know that was a bit of a high, but still. Or did Swan leak some sort of pre-budget goodie?

[Smid]

What happened? I know that was a bit of a high, but still. Or did Swan leak some sort of pre-budget goodie?

Could be a budget bounce, or could be a bit of statistical noise. The Nielson poll yesterday declared "no budget bounce" - but I think their last poll was higher for Labor than Newspoll's last poll.

The time series figures published in the paper are (so election, and then every two weeks, starting from late February this year):
(dates are: Election - [2012 Feb 23-26, Mar 9-11, Mar 23-25, Apr 13-15, Apr 27-29, May 11-13])

Labor: 38,          35, 31, 28, 29, 27, 30.
Coalition: 43.6,          45, 43, 47, 48, 51, 45
Greens: 11.8,          11, 12, 11, 12, 11, 12
Others: 6.6,          9, 14, 14, 11, 11, 13

So as far as this year's Newspoll goes, the numbers are pretty close to the low-end of middle for Labor, low-end of middle for Coalition, normal for the Greens, and high end for others (presumably driven by Katter's Party).

The Age-Neilson poll published on Saturday was:

Labor: 28
Coalition: 49
Greens: 12
Independent: 5
Family First: 3
Other: 4

[RogueBeaver]

Still lethal though.

[Peter the Lefty]

Newspoll out today. Bracketed number reflects change from the election.

Primary Vote
Labor 27 (-11)
Coalition 51 (+7.4)
Greens 11 (-0.
Others 11 (+4.4)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 41 (-9.9)
Coalition 59

Wow.  With those numbers, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Peter Garrett,  Chris Bowen, Craig Emmerson, and maybe even Tony Burke would loose their seats.  5 or 6 Portillo moments.  Geez.  For anyone who is on the ALP left though, a blessing in disguise, perhaps. 

[Smid]

That would be on a uniform swing. I think Emmrrson would hang on, I know his seat pretty well. Even in the Queensland election, Woodridge stayed Labor (I think the safest Labor seat? Or is that Inala?). Regardless, voters in the parts of his seat West of the highway would really struggle to vote Liberal, especially without the Can-do Campbell factor.

Swan has lost his seat before, but the redistribution took some more Liberal parts out, I think. Still, I believe no state seats in his electorate went Labor at the Queensland election a couple of months ago, so he could have some difficulties. Of course, the Queensland Premier (now, LNP Leader then) had massive cult-like personal popularity, which no other leader currently attracts, so that could weigh in his favour.

Garrett, hmmm, I think most state seats in his electorate stayed Labor last state election, Coogee, which went marginally Liberal, is shared with Wentworth. I think Polnut knows that whole area better than me, but I suspect Garrett may hang on.

The other seats, I don't know them well enough. If any seat in WA resists the swing, it will be Perth and/or Fremantle. Perhaps Smith could hang on, perhaps his seat will swing. I wouldn't want to predict that one either way.

[Peter the Lefty]

That would be on a uniform swing. I think Emmrrson would hang on, I know his seat pretty well. Even in the Queensland election, Woodridge stayed Labor (I think the safest Labor seat? Or is that Inala?). Regardless, voters in the parts of his seat West of the highway would really struggle to vote Liberal, especially without the Can-do Campbell factor.

Swan has lost his seat before, but the redistribution took some more Liberal parts out, I think. Still, I believe no state seats in his electorate went Labor at the Queensland election a couple of months ago, so he could have some difficulties. Of course, the Queensland Premier (now, LNP Leader then) had massive cult-like personal popularity, which no other leader currently attracts, so that could weigh in his favour.

Garrett, hmmm, I think most state seats in his electorate stayed Labor last state election, Coogee, which went marginally Liberal, is shared with Wentworth. I think Polnut knows that whole area better than me, but I suspect Garrett may hang on.

The other seats, I don't know them well enough. If any seat in WA resists the swing, it will be Perth and/or Fremantle. Perhaps Smith could hang on, perhaps his seat will swing. I wouldn't want to predict that one either way.

Well, I don't think 59-41 will be the result on election day.  I actually have a feeling it will be like France this year (with left and right reversed), where it looks like a huge victory is coming for the opposition, and then they only end up winning by a narrow margin, though ironically, I hope all of those guys loose their seats, in spite of being a socialist/social democrat myself, to cleanse the ALP of their influences (and the threats of them potentially being ALP leaders in the next parliament). 

[Insula Dei]

Wouldn't it be weird for Tony Abbot to win one of the largest majorities in Australian parliamentary history?

[RogueBeaver]

Ironic that all the ALP dries will get wiped out when they're the ones who their party will need to rebuild.

[Peter the Lefty]

Wouldn't it be weird for Tony Abbot to win one of the largest majorities in Australian parliamentary history?

Yep, but not unthinkable.  If these numbers hold, then it would look a lot like Spain 2011.

[RogueBeaver]

Spain 2011? Abbott would have 11x seats with Labor in the mid-30s at those numbers. Bigger than Fraser 1975.

[Peter the Lefty]

Does ALP dries mean the right faction?  If so, then it would seem that they'll need someone from the left (who hopefully will clean up the party's legacy on the carbon tax) to be able to keep its youth base from switching to the Greens.  Doesn't necessarily have to be someone from the Left faction (preferably yes), but someone who is actually left-of center.. I mean, they can't be a bleeding leftist socialist tree-hugger, since they'll obviously have to win back a lot of Coalition supporters too.  But it seems like projecting integrity (which Gillard doesn't have) and honesty, as well as admitting that the Gillard government screwed up with the carbon tax (and the right-wing, austerity decision on single-mother's allowance).  It also seems like Abbot, assuming he becomes PM, will do himself in.

*fingers crossed for Tanya Plibersek*

[RogueBeaver]

I hope the ALP continues thinking that way for many defeats to come.

[DL]

In several elections in the past two years such as the UK in 2010 and Sarkozy recently we have seen that anytime polls show incumbents set to be totally crushed - they almost always end up losing by a much less crushing margin than the polls suggest. I think that in the end a certain number of people always "come home" to their natural political home and so elections almost always end up being closer than expected.

[RogueBeaver]

Obviously. I'd expect, say, 53/47 2PP when all is said and done.

[Sibboleth]

I hope the ALP continues thinking that way for many defeats to come.

Posts like that are why I don't really like having poll threads here. Generally discussion of Aussie stuff is (in a great blow to stereotypes) cool enough for there to be no issue, but, basically, masturbate (or scream at the horror if applicable, etc) elsewhere...

[Peter the Lefty]

Spain 2011? Abbott would have 11x seats with Labor in the mid-30s at those numbers. Bigger than Fraser 1975.

Yeah, but I mean just in general, a massive landslide victory by an opposition leader who would, in most cases, be unelectable. 

[Smid]

Latest Newspoll is out. Labor has risen for a second polling period, off their lows of a month or so ago (pre-budget). This has been mainly due to a slide in "Others" - primary vote, the Coalition is up 2, Labor up 1, Greens steady and Others down 3. I suspected that the last poll had overstated Labor's support by a percent or so and that this poll would see it ease off very slightly, and that the media would therefore over-emphasise any slide but clearly I was wrong because Labor's up again.

I'm not sure what is contributing to the slide in others... I think their rise was driven predominantly by the rise of Katter's party in Queensland (I'm sure that a correlation could be proven or disproven fairly easily by looking at the date in the surge to others and the date Katter announced he was forming a party, but I'm not going to spend that much time looking for it... I think it's probably true and I'll leave it at that). Anyway, if that's the case, perhaps the Katter party failing to win seats in the Queensland election outside his own federal electorate may be acting as something of a dampener on their support. Just speculation on my part, really.

Anyway, here are the polling numbers:

Primary Vote
Labor 32 (+2%)
Coalition 46 (+1%)
Greens 12 (nc)
Others 10 (-3%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 46 - 54 Coalition

1152 respondents, +/- 3% MOE, weighted according to population distribution.