Australian Federal Polls

[Smid]

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 5-7 October.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 33% (-3%]
Coalition     (43.6%) 45% (+4%)
Greens        (11.8%) 10% (-2%)
Others        (6.6%) 12% (+1%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 46% (-4%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 54% (+4%)

1,168 respondents, MoE +/- 3%
7% uncommitted and 2% refused were excluded from the sample.

[RogueBeaver]

OK, so the last one was a rogue poll. Still smooth sailing.

[Talleyrand]

OK, so the last one was a rogue poll. Still smooth sailing.

[Solopop]

Recent polls done by Roy Morgan shows the ALP in the lead...

http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4834/

If accurate, this is amazing.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Morgan is widely viewed as a joke IIRC.

[Solopop]

Not in Australia where you either have Right-wing Newspoll or Left-wing Niellson...

[Smid]

Not in Australia where you either have Right-wing Newspoll or Left-wing Niellson...

Morgan is consistently about four points to the left of both Newspoll and Neilson. I suspect this is because of his insistence on face-to-face polling ensuring he over-represents urban/suburban voters and under-represents rural voters, where his polling staff would need to drive a kilometre out two from property to property. He predicted Howard would lose in his poll released the night before the 2001 election, and also that Kennett would lose, when he actually won in a landslide. Morgan has a deeply flawed methodology and the only way to credibly observe his polls is if you factor in a shift to the Coalition, like a clock that you know is always give minutes late.

[Solopop]

Anyway, once again the Abbott train crashes with his highly offensive comment and attack on Julia Gillard's childless status.

He has 1 month.

[Marcus Aurelius]

What did he say exactly ?

[Solopop]

Not in Australia where you either have Right-wing Newspoll or Left-wing Niellson...

Morgan is consistently about four points to the left of both Newspoll and Neilson. I suspect this is because of his insistence on face-to-face polling ensuring he over-represents urban/suburban voters and under-represents rural voters, where his polling staff would need to drive a kilometre out two from property to property. He predicted Howard would lose in his poll released the night before the 2001 election, and also that Kennett would lose, when he actually won in a landslide. Morgan has a deeply flawed methodology and the only way to credibly observe his polls is if you factor in a shift to the Coalition, like a clock that you know is always give minutes late.

Most predicted this...

[Talleyrand]

And now the newspoll is back to 50-50? Can someone explain what on Earth is going on?

[Smid]

Not in Australia where you either have Right-wing Newspoll or Left-wing Niellson...

Morgan is consistently about four points to the left of both Newspoll and Neilson. I suspect this is because of his insistence on face-to-face polling ensuring he over-represents urban/suburban voters and under-represents rural voters, where his polling staff would need to drive a kilometre out two from property to property. He predicted Howard would lose in his poll released the night before the 2001 election, and also that Kennett would lose, when he actually won in a landslide. Morgan has a deeply flawed methodology and the only way to credibly observe his polls is if you factor in a shift to the Coalition, like a clock that you know is always give minutes late.

Most predicted this...

Actually, Newspoll had Coalition 2PP at 53 in its final poll before the election. I'm not sure about Neilsen, but I'm pretty sure that of the pollsters used by the media, Morgan was the only one to predict a Beazley victory.

[Smid]

The latest Newspoll is out, taken 26-28 October.

As before, first bracketted number is the election result, second bracketted number is the change since the last poll.

Primary Vote
Labor          (38%) 36% (+3%)
Coalition     (43.6%) 41% (-4%)
Greens        (11.8%) 10% (nc%)
Others        (6.6%) 13% (+1%)

Two Party Preferred
Labor (50.1%) 50% (+4%) vs Coalition (49.9%) 50% (-4%)

1,176 respondents, MoE +/- 3%
6% uncommitted and 1% refused were excluded from the sample.

[Solopop]

Gillard will win, she's really turned the tide. She's a very smart woman.

[Secretary Polnut]

Morgan is a joke, I never EVER take them seriously.

Both Neilsen and Newspoll show a tightening towards the Government and Gillard pulling away as preferred PM - Abbott looks the most vulnerable he has since getting the leadership.

[RogueBeaver]

Let's see if this becomes a trend.

[You kip if you want to...]

I've fallen away from Australia of late. Why this surge?

[Platypus]

It's still, as it inevitably was always going to be, people being terrified of Abbott.

Maxine McKew made a little aside that I thought was actually bang-on, but i'm paraphrasing: "Abbott is about two gaffes away from being ousted".

[Sibboleth]

He does so like pointing that machine gun at his foot.

[RogueBeaver]

Who would replace Abbott in said scenario? Hockey?

[Platypus]

Julie Bishop? Sophie Mirabella? Bill Heffernan?

One can only hope...

[Smid]

I've fallen away from Australia of late. Why this surge?

John McTernan took over as Director of Communications.

The government has been so personally grubby and negative, which unfortunately works. The difference between the Opposition attacks and the Government's is that the Opposition focuses on policies - carbon tax, boats, budget deficits, while the Government's attacks can be summarised "Abbott is a thug/sexist" - they're playing the man, not the ball. It's a successful strategy, that's lifting the Government in the polls, but I just think it's grubby.

[Secretary Polnut]

Oh Smiddy...

I agree with some of this, but the idea that Abbott & Co are somehow above the fray on 'personal attacks'? Come on.

Abbott has been the Coalition's Achilles' Heel... he has been the one that cannot do anything other than negativity. This close to an election, Abbott should be creating a narrative as to why THEY would be BETTER. Gillard is gaining traction for a number of reasons, 1. exploiting the general dislike and unease with Tony Abbott (and hardly lying about his previous statements) 2. the Carbon Price coming in and people realising the world has not collapsed (neutering the primary Coalition talking point) 3. Gillard looks stronger, she doesn't look as beleaguered as she did 6 months ago... Rudd's chances are gone... and she's pretty much secure in the leadership now.

[Secretary Polnut]

Essential Research

Approval
Gillard: 41% (NC)
Abbott: 33% (-4)

Disapproval
Gillard: 49% (-2) (lowest net disapproval for nearly 2 years)
Abbott: 58% (+4) (his highest ever net disapproval)

Preferred PM
Gillard: 45%
Abbott: 32%

Primary vote
ALP: 37% (NC)
Coalition: 45% (-1)
Greens: 9% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 48%
Coalition: 52%

Issue is women are turning HARD against Abbott...

Abbott's over all net disapproval: -25
Abbott's net disapproval with women: -30

Gillard's lead as preferred PM: 13%
Gillard's lead as preferred PM with women only: 21%

[RogueBeaver]

I've never heard of them before. How reputable are they? # are believable though.