Australian Federal Polls

[Platypus]

As I've talked about on the chat, Labor have a natural floor of somewhere between 40-45 seats, unless there is a particular event. Add the fact they're the current government, and the floor is about 50-55. which would still be a wipeout, but please don't start salivating over 25 or 30 members. Federal politics is not state politics, and VIC, SA, TAS, and the ACT are not NSW and QLD.

What may be a genuine possiblity though, and one that would be incredibly harmful to Labor going forward, is a truly awful result in the senate. I could very easily see the coalition getting three across the board, and maybe a fourth or at least a non-labor/greens fourth in a couple of states.

[Platypus]

I think most news agencies ran the story because it was so thoroughly believable.

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Not reading too much in to this poll, will wait for it to be reconfirmed next time. Pretty confident the libs are still up 2pp, but also confident Gillard's gap as preferred PM is growing.

[Platypus]

It's still, as it inevitably was always going to be, people being terrified of Abbott.

Maxine McKew made a little aside that I thought was actually bang-on, but i'm paraphrasing: "Abbott is about two gaffes away from being ousted".

[Platypus]

Julie Bishop? Sophie Mirabella? Bill Heffernan?

One can only hope...