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Author Topic: democrats: who is your 2016 "hit list" in the senate?  (Read 2342 times)
nkpatel1279
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« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2012, 12:41:02 am »
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2016 Democratic Target.
1)IL(Kirk-R) Michelle Obama-D or Lisa Madigan-D have the first right of refusal. If Michelle Obama-D and Lisa Madigan-D decide not to run. Look for IL-10 US Rep Brad Schneider-D to run.  Any chance that former IL-8 US Rep Joe Walsh-R challenges Kirk-R in the primary.
2)WI(Johnson-R) Feingold-D has the first right of refusal. If Feingold does not run. It will be Ron Kind.
3)PA(Toomey-R) Jason Altmire-D or Patrick Murphy-D.
4)OH(Portman-R) Tim Ryan-D
5)MO(Blunt-R) Jay Nixon-D
6)AZ(OPEN-R) Gabby Giffords-D??? or Janet Napolitano-D
7)IA(OPEN-R) Tom Vilsack-D or Bruce Braley-D
8)FL(Rubio-R) Debbie Wasserman Schultz-D or Kathy Castor-D
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #26 on: April 02, 2012, 09:44:14 am »
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Isn't Mrs. Obama known to dislike politics/DC? Let's hold off on talking her up as a Senate candidate right now.

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semocrat08
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« Reply #27 on: April 03, 2012, 02:06:45 am »
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Arizona is possible. I think over time and with the changing demographics, we could field a strong candidate. I doubt Gabrielle Giffords will run. She was all but guaranteed another term in the House but chose to resign so that she could recover. I doubt she will want to return to Washington after four years of avoiding politics. Too early for a formidable candidate just yet, but with the growing Hispanic vote, perhaps our best bet is Raul M. Grijalva or Ed Pastor? We don't have many options.. yet Smiley

Arkansas is a for-sure target. John Boozman is very beatable especially in a Democratic state where Obama won't be on the ticket to drag the other candidates down. Gov. Mike Beebe would be the most formidable candidate.

Florida is attainable. They say Marco Rubio is a "shining star" in the GOP, but lest we forget they said that about Sarah Palin too and look what happened to her. Aside from identity politics, I don't see what's so great about the guy. I realize diversity lacks in the Republican Party, but throw me a frickin' bone here. Not sure who we could run against him. Ideally, I would love to see a Senator Debbie Wasserman Schultz, but she's probably too liberal for Florida.

Keep an eye on Georgia as well. The Peach State was a shocker to me with how close it was in 2008, and the population boom may signal potential strength to turn once crimson red Georgia into purple. Highly unlikely, but 2016 is a ways off and we could find a candidate to mount a credible challenge to Johnny Isakson.

Illinois, for sure, goes without saying. I'm not touting Michelle Obama. Didn't she say she hated being First Lady, so why would she want to return to Washington? Attorney General Lisa Madigan would be our best candidate but it's Illinois and we have a deep bench.

As for Indiana, unless for some fluke of a reason Joe Donnelly wins in 2012, I doubt we have much of a chance there to go up against Dan Coats, unless something drastic changes.

I think we can for sure take Kentucky, especially if Gov. Steve Beshear throws his hat in the race. Rand Paul is a joke and only won in 2010 because he had an "R" after his name.

..I'll think of more later.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #28 on: April 03, 2012, 07:39:56 am »
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Regarding 2016 IL.
Lisa Madigan  is most likely going to run for Governor in 2018 when Pat Quinn will likely to retire and Madigan's father is likely to have retired from the State House Speakership.
Sheila Simon is likely to run for the other IL US Senate Seat (Durbin Seat-the seat her father previously held).
Rahm Emanuel is happy being Mayor of Chicago.
Members of the IL- US House Delegation
It is likely to be IL-10 US House Rep Brad Schneider. Schneider is going to unseat Dold-R in the Slightly More Democratic Leaning IL-10 US House District which Kirk-R previously held before getting elected to the US Senate in 2010. Dold-R shares the same ideological background as Kirk-R and Romney-R.
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morgieb
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« Reply #29 on: April 03, 2012, 09:07:42 am »
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My list atm...

1. Illinois (R-Kirk) - Illinois is one of the bluest states in the country. Kirk is in massive danger, particularly given that I think Democrats will be smart enough to avoid a dodgy character.

2. Pennsylvania (R-Toomey) - probably isn't as enticing as it appears on paper, but the Democrats should still be favoured. He's too right-wing for a centrist state such as Pennsylvania.

3. Wisconsin (R-Johnson) - ditto. It's lower than Pennsylvania due to approval ratings.

4. North Carolina (R-Burr) - he doesn't have good name recognition despite being in office for 8 years now, and North Carolina is prone to being a bit of a swing state often.

5. Ohio (R-Portman) - the ultimate swing state, and Portman has very low name recognition. Probably can flip with the right candidate.

6. Arizona (R-McCain) - his approvals are in the dump, and given the demographics are changing there, a strong Democrat can easily knock him off or win an open seat (he will be 80 by 2016, and he is in his 5th term). Bench could be a problem though.

7. Kentucky (R-Paul) - he's probably too right-wing for Kentucky (and not right-wing on the right issues), so if we find the right candidate, the Democrats can easily knock him off. Obama will be gone by 2016. Upticket may influence this race though.

8. Missouri (R-Blunt) - Blunt's approvals are pretty poor, so a good candidate can knock him off. It's a reasonably close state anyway.

9. Florida (R-Rubio) - good chance he might run for President, and it is a swing state, but the Democrats have a weak bench in Florida.

10. Arkansas (R-Boozman) - I have no idea how strong Boozman is, and the right Democrat can win here without Obama around.

11. Iowa (R-Grassley) - if he retires, we probably can win an open seat.

12. New Hampshire (R-Ayotte) - probably safe, but if it's a good year for the Democrats, we should have a shot at the seat.

13. Louisiana (R-Vitter) - he might run for governor, and without Obama, he could be beaten in a good cycle due to strippergate. More of a longshot opportunity though.

14. Indiana (R-Coats) - Coats doesn't scream that much of a winner, so he could be beaten in very good circumstances.

15. Georgia (R-Iskason) - ditto.

16. South Carolina (R-Open) - DeMint is retiring, and demographics are changing.

17. Oklahoma (R-Open) - Coburn is retirng, and there are a couple of strong candidates here.

18. Alaska (R-Murkowski) - Tea Party could interfere, however Alaska is very red.

19. Kansas (R-Moran) - however, he should be safe unless Seliebus decides to run.

20. Alabama (R-Shelby) - needs a miracle

21. South Dakota (R-Thune) - needs a miracle.

22. North Dakota (R-Hoeven) - they re-elected Democrats by landslides, imagine how big Republicans will win.

23. Utah (R-Lee) - Lee might be too conservative even by Utah's standards, but he won't lose unless Matheson for some reason wants to run.

24. Idaho (R-Crapo) - not happening

Still, up to 17 seats are attainable in the right circumstances. Could be a good year for us in the Senate. Also, Nevada is the only seat we really need to worry about, although Colorado's a long shot for the Republicans. The others should be OK.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #30 on: April 05, 2012, 09:14:08 am »
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My list atm...

1. Illinois (R-Kirk) - Illinois is one of the bluest states in the country. Kirk is in massive danger, particularly given that I think Democrats will be smart enough to avoid a dodgy character.

2. Pennsylvania (R-Toomey) - probably isn't as enticing as it appears on paper, but the Democrats should still be favoured. He's too right-wing for a centrist state such as Pennsylvania.

3. Wisconsin (R-Johnson) - ditto. It's lower than Pennsylvania due to approval ratings.

4. North Carolina (R-Burr) - he doesn't have good name recognition despite being in office for 8 years now, and North Carolina is prone to being a bit of a swing state often.

5. Ohio (R-Portman) - the ultimate swing state, and Portman has very low name recognition. Probably can flip with the right candidate.

6. Arizona (R-McCain) - his approvals are in the dump, and given the demographics are changing there, a strong Democrat can easily knock him off or win an open seat (he will be 80 by 2016, and he is in his 5th term). Bench could be a problem though.

7. Kentucky (R-Paul) - he's probably too right-wing for Kentucky (and not right-wing on the right issues), so if we find the right candidate, the Democrats can easily knock him off. Obama will be gone by 2016. Upticket may influence this race though.

8. Missouri (R-Blunt) - Blunt's approvals are pretty poor, so a good candidate can knock him off. It's a reasonably close state anyway.

9. Florida (R-Rubio) - good chance he might run for President, and it is a swing state, but the Democrats have a weak bench in Florida.

10. Arkansas (R-Boozman) - I have no idea how strong Boozman is, and the right Democrat can win here without Obama around.

11. Iowa (R-Grassley) - if he retires, we probably can win an open seat.

12. New Hampshire (R-Ayotte) - probably safe, but if it's a good year for the Democrats, we should have a shot at the seat.

13. Louisiana (R-Vitter) - he might run for governor, and without Obama, he could be beaten in a good cycle due to strippergate. More of a longshot opportunity though.

14. Indiana (R-Coats) - Coats doesn't scream that much of a winner, so he could be beaten in very good circumstances.

15. Georgia (R-Iskason) - ditto.

16. South Carolina (R-Open) - DeMint is retiring, and demographics are changing.

17. Oklahoma (R-Open) - Coburn is retirng, and there are a couple of strong candidates here.

18. Alaska (R-Murkowski) - Tea Party could interfere, however Alaska is very red.

19. Kansas (R-Moran) - however, he should be safe unless Seliebus decides to run.

20. Alabama (R-Shelby) - needs a miracle

21. South Dakota (R-Thune) - needs a miracle.

22. North Dakota (R-Hoeven) - they re-elected Democrats by landslides, imagine how big Republicans will win.

23. Utah (R-Lee) - Lee might be too conservative even by Utah's standards, but he won't lose unless Matheson for some reason wants to run.

24. Idaho (R-Crapo) - not happening

Still, up to 17 seats are attainable in the right circumstances. Could be a good year for us in the Senate. Also, Nevada is the only seat we really need to worry about, although Colorado's a long shot for the Republicans. The others should be OK.

If Harry Reid could survive handily in 2010 of all years, he will be near safe in a Presidential year in a state that is only gettting bluer. 
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« Reply #31 on: April 05, 2012, 11:44:19 am »
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Reid would need to pull the same trick of destroying all viable R candidates before they make it to the primary to survive. His win in 2010 was Angle's catastrophic failure.
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« Reply #32 on: April 05, 2012, 02:52:02 pm »
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Just one Republican Senator on my "get out of office list": Mike Lee of Utah. I despise this man as everything that's wrong with Utah politics today. He's a Tea Partier, a shill for corporations (especially NuSkin, since he was legal counsel for them), smug, arrogant, childish, utterly self-absorbed and unwilling to work with anyone less conservative than he is.

Sadly, since this is Utah, he'll probably stay in office for as long as Orrin Hatch.

I despise Mike Lee, I hope he gets primaried. Only good thing he's done is vote against NDAA.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2012, 06:44:33 am »
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Reid would need to pull the same trick of destroying all viable R candidates before they make it to the primary to survive. His win in 2010 was Angle's catastrophic failure.

But it was 2010.  A lot of very insane Republicans won that year.  Just look at Allen West. 
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Zioneer
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« Reply #34 on: April 08, 2012, 03:42:03 pm »
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Just one Republican Senator on my "get out of office list": Mike Lee of Utah. I despise this man as everything that's wrong with Utah politics today. He's a Tea Partier, a shill for corporations (especially NuSkin, since he was legal counsel for them), smug, arrogant, childish, utterly self-absorbed and unwilling to work with anyone less conservative than he is.

Sadly, since this is Utah, he'll probably stay in office for as long as Orrin Hatch.

I despise Mike Lee, I hope he gets primaried. Only good thing he's done is vote against NDAA.

I'm curious; why do you hate Mike Lee if you like Orrin Hatch? Besides a younger age and a stronger Tea Partier vibe from Lee, it's not like he'll end up being any different from Hatch. Heck, sans the Democrat, he basically pulled the same strategy as Hatch.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #35 on: April 08, 2012, 07:41:18 pm »
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Four years out and y'all are already talking 2016 Senate?

Get a life!

For all we know, Obama could be so unpopular by the end of his second term (or an incumbent Republican president is so popular) that the GOP is actually in a position to pick-up seats in states like DE, NV, or CO.

A much better topic of conversation would be just how bad the Democrats will fare in 2014 Wink
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #36 on: April 08, 2012, 08:20:01 pm »
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Four years out and y'all are already talking 2016 Senate?

Get a life!

For all we know, Obama could be so unpopular by the end of his second term (or an incumbent Republican president is so popular) that the GOP is actually in a position to pick-up seats in states like DE, NV, or CO?

A much better topic of conversation would be just how bad the Democrats will fare in 2014 Wink

The Democrats wont fare that badly in 2014 since Republicans control the House and are very unpopular. 
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #37 on: April 08, 2012, 11:57:07 pm »
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2012
Democrats pick up
ME(King-I)caucuses with DEMs.
MA(Warren-D)benefits from Obama coattails.
NV(Berkley-D)benefits from Obama coattails.
Democrats lose.
NE(Open-Nelson-D)Bruning-R
ND(Open-Conrad-D)Berg-R
MT(Tester-D)Rehberg-R
Democrats hold onto FL(Nelson-D),MO(McCaskill-D),NM(Heinrich-D),OH(Brown-D),VA(Kaine-D),and WI(Baldwin-D)- Baldwin-D defeats Neumann-R, but Thompson-R defeats Baldwin-D, Neumann-R defeats Thompson-R. 
2014
Democrats lose AK(Begich-D),MI(OPEN-Levin-D),and SD(OPEN-Johnson-D) but gain ME(OPEN-Collins-R). Democrats hang onto AR(Pryor-D),CO(Udall-D),IA(OPEN-Harkin-D),LA(Landrieu-D),MN(Franken-D),MT(Baucus-D),NC(Hagan-D),and WV(Rockefeller-D)
Coons(D-DE) is also up for re-election in 2014 and is strongly favored to win.
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They call me PR
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« Reply #38 on: April 12, 2012, 12:57:15 am »
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McCain (AZ), Johnson (WI), Kirk (IL), Toomey (PA), and Blunt (MO).
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JCL and the Geologist
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« Reply #39 on: April 12, 2012, 07:44:24 pm »
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For all of you shouting about a Dem grabbing Kentucky, please realize that Republicans will hopefully remove the Tard in the primary or he will voluntarily leave to follow in his loser father's footsteps as a failed Presidential candidate. Either way, sanity will score a pick up here.

Not gonna happen. Rand is not his father. Phil, what is your problem with Rand?
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Congressional Races
Jackie Walorski (R/IN-2)
Marlin Stutzman (R/IN-3)
Todd Rokita (R/IN-4)
Chard Reid (Lib/IN-5)
Luke Messer (R/IN-6)
Carlos May (R/IN-7)
Larry Bucshon (R/IN-8)
Todd Young (R/IN-9)
Tom Massie (R/KY-4)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2012, 07:33:05 am »
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For all of you shouting about a Dem grabbing Kentucky, please realize that Republicans will hopefully remove the Tard in the primary or he will voluntarily leave to follow in his loser father's footsteps as a failed Presidential candidate. Either way, sanity will score a pick up here.

Not gonna happen. Rand is not his father. Phil, what is your problem with Rand?

He's only slightly less insane than Daddy and his pitbull, blatantly unethical attacks on Santorum before Iowa (suggested Santorum could be Pro Choice!) will not be forgotten.
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Iron King SJoyce
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« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2012, 08:20:32 am »
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9. Florida (R-Rubio) - good chance he might run for President, and it is a swing state, but the Democrats have a weak bench in Florida.


Democrats can't knock out Rubio. They just can't. Not when your bench is a former governor and a lifelong Republican-turned-Independent (turned-Democrat?) and another former governor who's 75 and has been out of office for several years (Crist & Graham, respectively). The Democrats don't really have anyone else who can win statewide; Aronberg, Gelber, and Sink all lost statewide races, and Wasserman-Schultz can win South Florida but not Central/North. Maybe Rod Smith could run, or Bill Nelson if he loses 2012, but other than those, or maybe somebody like State Sen. Jeremy Ring or Nan Rich (Senate Minority Leader) in a long-shot bid, but generally, Rubio looks like he's staying.
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JCL and the Geologist
JohanusCalvinusLibertas
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« Reply #42 on: April 15, 2012, 03:36:32 pm »
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For all of you shouting about a Dem grabbing Kentucky, please realize that Republicans will hopefully remove the Tard in the primary or he will voluntarily leave to follow in his loser father's footsteps as a failed Presidential candidate. Either way, sanity will score a pick up here.

Not gonna happen. Rand is not his father. Phil, what is your problem with Rand?

He's only slightly less insane than Daddy and his pitbull, blatantly unethical attacks on Santorum before Iowa (suggested Santorum could be Pro Choice!) will not be forgotten.

As Santorum's attacks on the Paul family's pro-Sermon on the Mount foreign policy will not be forgotten.
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Congressional Races
Jackie Walorski (R/IN-2)
Marlin Stutzman (R/IN-3)
Todd Rokita (R/IN-4)
Chard Reid (Lib/IN-5)
Luke Messer (R/IN-6)
Carlos May (R/IN-7)
Larry Bucshon (R/IN-8)
Todd Young (R/IN-9)
Tom Massie (R/KY-4)
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