George Pataki (R-NY) vs. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  George Pataki (R-NY) vs. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
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Question: Who would you vote for? Who would win?
#1
Pataki / Pataki
 
#2
Pataki / Bayh
 
#3
Bayh / Pataki
 
#4
Bayh / Bayh
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: George Pataki (R-NY) vs. Evan Bayh (D-IN)  (Read 2025 times)
A18
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« on: January 13, 2005, 03:55:11 PM »

What's a map look like?
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2005, 03:58:58 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2005, 04:03:10 PM by nickshepDEM »

Some may think Im giving Pataki to much credit with this map but, I think he could do this good.  Depends on VP's too.



Bay wins electoral vote: 300 - 238
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True Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2005, 04:27:30 PM »

Some may think Im giving Pataki to much credit with this map but, I think he could do this good.  Depends on VP's too.



Bay wins electoral vote: 300 - 238

Bayh/Bayh

Pataki is not as well liked as people think.  Bayh would also win Missouri by one or two percent because Pataki can't keep the conservative base, even with a conservative VP.  Arkansas and Virginia will also be close.
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A18
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2005, 04:35:18 PM »

What? Not as well liked as people think? No one even knows who Pataki is. Granted, a lot more people know who Pataki is than Bayh.

You're not giving him too much credit. You're giving him too little.
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George W. Bush
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2005, 04:37:16 PM »

Bayh/Bayh, I like Bayh alot and would not be upset if he won in 08.
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2005, 04:39:26 PM »

That race would rock! I'd be totally undecided I think.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2005, 04:40:25 PM »

Why George?  Ive been looking for someone who knows of him better than the rest of us and being in Ohio you probably hear alot about him.  Is he Presidential material?  Could he win?  Would you vote for him?
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A18
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2005, 04:40:39 PM »

There is virtually no difference between Evan Bayh and John Kerry except that Bayh appears to be slightly less, shall we say, "anti-baby." Wink
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2005, 04:44:55 PM »

Hes gotta be doing something right.  The people of Indiana have been electing him and re-electing him for quite some time and by quite large margins. 
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A18
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2005, 04:46:26 PM »

Which is not rare.
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George W. Bush
eversole_Adam
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2005, 05:14:17 PM »

 Im not saying i would vote for him in most cases. I would voet for almost any GOP over him, I just have an Extream Distaste for Gov. Pataki.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2005, 05:16:21 PM »

Pataki/Bayh

Although I like them both I would probably vote Pataki because I know that Bayh would win anyway. Bayh would pick up southern states that Pataki wouldn't be able to carry. It would be quite an interesting election, possible re-alignment?
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Rob
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« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2005, 09:49:42 PM »

My map:



Bayh sweeps with a 343-195 victory.
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2005, 09:51:45 PM »

Bayh/Bayh.

I'd post my map but it looks a lot like Bob's. In fact, it is Bob's, except South Dakota is red.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2005, 08:23:46 AM »

Pataki would have an early edge from the name recognition of being the governor of NY.  Nothing huge, but an edge.

If the GOP money machine kicked in behind him he could also have a money edge.

Bayh would have the benefit of having been both a state executive and a federal senator.  If he remembers how to talk like an executive he would have an advantage.

Bayh would have a very good chance of picking up IN while NY would be an outside shot for Pataki.  Pataki would have to convince the people of NY that he is more in touch with them than Bayh.  Pataki would probably need to resign in 2006 to have any chance.  People tend to remember you more fondly if you go away for a bit.

Ohio would be a battleground where Bayh would have an edge.  PA is a tossup, better campaign takes it.  NJ would be interesting, probably still go Dem, but would give a scare.  FL would still be seen as the big prize and Pataki would have an edge there (Former NYers there give him a massive name recognition edge.)  MO is a true battleground in this race and could go either way.

A lot would come down to how the campaign went and the VP choices to keep the parties base.  I said before centrist v. centrist races are very rare and very interesting.  They go to whoever can get the base out without alienating the center.

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opebo
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« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2005, 08:30:56 AM »

These two seem almost identical to me, but I would vote Bayh just for the sake of (hopefully) a bit more gridlock.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2005, 01:06:57 PM »

Tredrick, who would you put your money on?  The one thing that scares me about Bayh is... I heard he is really boring.  Lacks that "IT" factor.  Some of the people I have talked to say Evan Bayh makes John Kerry look like the real JFK.  Thats bad, real bad.  Has Anyone heard him speak?  Does he have any charisma at all?  I think this is a very undrestimated feature in a presidential candidate.  People like goodlooking, friendly, charismatic, candidates... IMO
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M
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« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2005, 01:08:06 PM »

I vote Bayh, and he wins fairly easily. Pataki is a virtual unknown outside his region for such a potentially powerful fellow. Add to this the fact that he really is a pretty status quo, tax-happy, boring and uninspiring man. Bayh's one flaw- lack of exceptional charisma- is more than outdone here. Bayh penetrates the South in several places.
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« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2005, 01:23:11 PM »

Pataki's political career is over in 2006. Either he will not run again, making it more difficult to run in the 2008 primaries which he has little chance of getting through anyway since he's way too socially liberal, or he runs again and gets crushed by Spitzer.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2005, 02:58:20 PM »

Tredrick, who would you put your money on?  The one thing that scares me about Bayh is... I heard he is really boring.  Lacks that "IT" factor.  Some of the people I have talked to say Evan Bayh makes John Kerry look like the real JFK.  Thats bad, real bad.  Has Anyone heard him speak?  Does he have any charisma at all?  I think this is a very undrestimated feature in a presidential candidate.  People like goodlooking, friendly, charismatic, candidates... IMO

Bayh is liekly going to prove to be coachable.  A good campaign manager will bring him up to an acceptable level of personality.  Pataki isn't the most charming and affable person either, so Bayh is not at a huge disadvantage here.

A lot of people will put their own hopes onto these two relatively even candidates.  Democrats, desperate to take back the White House see Bayh as invincible, which he is not.  They see the Republican base abandoning a moderate Pataki and the idea of the Democrat base abandoning a moderate seems foreign to them.

Pataki is a bit blessed with choices, but they each have a risk attached.  He can run for governor, but their is some definite fatigue settling in with the electorate and Spitzer would be a strong challenger.  He can step down and prepare for the Presidency, but 2 years off in politics can be a long time to recover from.  He can also run for the senate and face off against Hillary.

Pataki also has the beenfit of getting his name mentioned on one of the most popular TV shows a few times each year.  Yes, it is insane, but Law & Order would help him in the early part of any national campaign.

All things being equal I give Bayh an edge.  Mainly because people would vote for a party change given the choice of two fairly similar candidates. 
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Hitchabrut
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« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2005, 03:36:06 PM »

Bayh/Bayh. However, in a Bayh/H. Clinton and Pataki/Frist election, I'd vote for Pataki.
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Smash255
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2005, 09:45:35 PM »

Pataki would have an early edge from the name recognition of being the governor of NY.  Nothing huge, but an edge.

If the GOP money machine kicked in behind him he could also have a money edge.

Bayh would have the benefit of having been both a state executive and a federal senator.  If he remembers how to talk like an executive he would have an advantage.

Bayh would have a very good chance of picking up IN while NY would be an outside shot for Pataki.  Pataki would have to convince the people of NY that he is more in touch with them than Bayh.  Pataki would probably need to resign in 2006 to have any chance.  People tend to remember you more fondly if you go away for a bit.

Ohio would be a battleground where Bayh would have an edge.  PA is a tossup, better campaign takes it.  NJ would be interesting, probably still go Dem, but would give a scare.  FL would still be seen as the big prize and Pataki would have an edge there (Former NYers there give him a massive name recognition edge.)  MO is a true battleground in this race and could go either way.

A lot would come down to how the campaign went and the VP choices to keep the parties base.  I said before centrist v. centrist races are very rare and very interesting.  They go to whoever can get the base out without alienating the center.



Pataki would not win NY period.  He has virtually no chance of beating Spitzer in 06 if he runs again.  If Pataki is interested in running he should announce in early 06 & not seek re-election because running for Pres after getting your butt kicked in the governor's race won't look good.  His approval is in the low to mid 40's right now.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #22 on: January 15, 2005, 12:46:33 AM »


Pataki would not win NY period.  He has virtually no chance of beating Spitzer in 06 if he runs again.  If Pataki is interested in running he should announce in early 06 & not seek re-election because running for Pres after getting your butt kicked in the governor's race won't look good.  His approval is in the low to mid 40's right now.

His numbers are low now, but there is a long time until the next election. 

He has been written off before.  he had no chance to beat Cuomo, yet he did.  He had no chance to hold on to the governor's mansion, yet he did.

Still, I think there is a lot of fatigue.  It will be hard for him to win against a decent candidate, and Spitzer is a decent candidate.
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FerrisBueller86
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« Reply #23 on: January 15, 2005, 12:52:10 AM »
« Edited: January 15, 2005, 12:53:50 AM by jhsu »

Pataki is too liberal for Republican primary voters, he couldn't fire up the conservative base, and he isn't even popular anymore in New York, though he at least doesn't have the skeletons in the closet that Guiliani has.  I don't think Pataki stands a chance, especially if a conservative third party candidate runs (which seems likely in this scenario).  Even a dull, charisma-challenged Bayh would win, and a more inspiring Bayh combined with a conservative third-party candidate would win in a Reaganesque landslide.

This would be an interesting and unpredictable race since both candidates are moderate, and there would be many battleground states.

My map for a middle-of-the-road scenario (between a dull Bayh in a 2-way race and a dynamic Bayh in a 3-way race):

Bayh 407, Pataki 129
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Smash255
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« Reply #24 on: January 15, 2005, 01:14:05 AM »


Pataki would not win NY period.  He has virtually no chance of beating Spitzer in 06 if he runs again.  If Pataki is interested in running he should announce in early 06 & not seek re-election because running for Pres after getting your butt kicked in the governor's race won't look good.  His approval is in the low to mid 40's right now.

His numbers are low now, but there is a long time until the next election. 

He has been written off before.  he had no chance to beat Cuomo, yet he did.  He had no chance to hold on to the governor's mansion, yet he did.

Still, I think there is a lot of fatigue.  It will be hard for him to win against a decent candidate, and Spitzer is a decent candidate.

his numbers have been low for 2 straight years, Spitzer's #'s are quite high (in the 60's).  The fatigue situation on both his end & the voter end as he would be seeking his 4th term (this is what played the biggest role when he beat Cuomo).  My opinon is if he doess run again he would just get killed and lose by even a larger margin that the polls at this time show, and if he tries to challenge Hillary he will lose by even a larger margin (if I remember correctly polls have him losing to Spitzer by 12 & Clinton by 20 something)
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