1948: Dwight the Democrat
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  1948: Dwight the Democrat
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Del Tachi
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« on: April 18, 2012, 06:32:11 PM »

Dwight Eisenhower is successfully drafted at the Democratic National Convention in 1948.  Incumbent President Harry S Truman steps aside and endorses the former general. Eisenhower allows the convention to pick his running mate. 

Who does the convention pick?  Is Civil Rights included in the platform?  Do the Dixiecrats nominate a candidate?

Given that the 1948 election is between Eisenhower, Dewey and Thurmond, who wins?  Does Thurmond perform better than OTL?

Discuss w/ maps.     
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Cathcon
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2012, 06:34:01 PM »

You really see Dewey winning the nomination a third time in a row? Especially after twice losing and having an even bigger chance of losing against Ike than against the super unpopular Truman?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2012, 08:04:30 PM »

You really see Dewey winning the nomination a third time in a row? Especially after twice losing and having an even bigger chance of losing against Ike than against the super unpopular Truman?

This is 1948.  Not '52.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2012, 08:25:51 PM »

You really see Dewey winning the nomination a third time in a row? Especially after twice losing and having an even bigger chance of losing against Ike than against the super unpopular Truman?

This is 1948.  Not '52.

Ah! Sorry. I was running on '52 speed. I'll have to go through a whole re-thinking process for this then.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2012, 06:51:45 PM »

Maybe this? Not sure about New York.

General Dwight D. Eisenhower (D-NY)/Senator Alben Barkley (D-KY) 366 electoral votes
Governor Thomas Dewey (R-NY)/Governor Earl Warren (R-CA) 127 electoral votes
Governor J. Strom Thurmond (SR-SC)/Governor Fielding L. Wright (SR-MS) 38 electoral votes
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2012, 03:26:40 PM »

Strom has big brass balls, but he isn't stupid.  It would be political suicide to run against the most popular man in America.  I can see Harry Byrd doing it, because, while smart, he isn't up for election in 52.  Also worth noting is that OTL Strom endorsed Ike.  Which is why he lost the senate seat that year.

I see this as a possibility:

Dwight Eisenhower / Harry F. Byrd (or perhaps JFK) (D): 52.7% PV; 282 EV
Douglas MacArthur / Robert Taft (or Vandenburg, perhaps Stassen) (R): 46.4% PV; 249 EV



My reasons for such a close election are these:
Firstly, Mac wins the nomination because the establishment believes he's the only way to win; one war hero against another.  Furthermore, Big Mac wasn't as timid or cocky as Dewey.  He would be out there campaigning day and night, and not just "Our rivers are full of fish", "The future lies ahead", "You cannot have liberty without freedom" and "Agriculture is important."  He would also take Ike head-on, something Dewey would never dare attempt.  There would be many debates, or Mac would be lincoln-style stalking Ike's campaign everywhere he went, refuting his pspeeches, until Ike agreed to debate.  There were a lot of things that could go right for Mac in a debate, and he'd probably wipe the floor with Ike.  But Harry S. would also be out campaigning for Eisenhower.  Honestly, I can see this election going either way, and it's likely that there will even be a GOP Congress come 1949.  And finally, Ike wasn't the aggressive grassroots populist campaigner Truman was.
Finally, Ike chooses Byrd for regional and ideological balance.
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shua
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2012, 11:06:52 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2012, 12:41:01 PM by shua, gm »



Eisenhower/Kefauver (475) 53.2%

Dewey/Warren ( 28 )  41.1%
Thurmond/Wright (28)  1.8%
Wallace/Taylor 3.4 %


With little to distinguish the views of the moderate Dewey from that of his opponent, he loses in a landslide to the war hero. Eisenhower voices general approval of the civil rights platform advanced by Humphrey, but Thurmond is somewhat limited in his ability to capitalize on the issue since Ike doesn't have a record on it. Wallace is supported by those on the left who believe Ike is uninterested in any further progressive policies.
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johnpressman
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2012, 11:31:39 PM »

The Dems begged Ike to run in 1948.  Strom Thurmond and the "Dixiecrat" party's plan, however, was to tie up the Presidential Election by winning enough southern states in order to deprive either party of a majority in the Electoral College.  Then they could negotiate a "hands-off" Civil Rights policy with either Dewey or Truman and throw their support to one or the other.  Of course, these southern states' electoral votes would be deducted from Truman's total as the South was exclusively Democratic in 1948.

If Ike was the Democratic nominee, the situation changes.  His popularity was such that he could  win (as did Truman, in the end) without the southern electoral votes and the plan would fail.  Besides, why desert the Democratic Party on the verge of sweeping victory and make enemies in high places?

Dewey still is the GOP nominee.  Ike wins in a landslide.
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