NJ-Quinnipiac: Obama by 9, Romney/Christie down by 7

[Tender Branson]

President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 49 - 40 percent in the New Jersey presidential race, a lead that shrinks to 49 - 42 percent if Gov. Christopher Christie runs as Romney's vice presidential pick, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1736

[Tender Branson]

Sample looks too Republican though:

34% D, 25% R, 41% I

2008 was 44% D, 28% R, 28% I

Reweighted to 2008 numbers, it's 54-38 Obama and 54-40 Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Christie.

...

While this Quinnipiac poll looks too Romney friendly, the Rutgers poll looks too Obama friendly. If we average both of them (Obama+9 and Obama+27), we get Obama+18, which is about the reweighted 2008 result.

[krazen1211]

Sample looks too Republican though:

34% D, 25% R, 41% I

Actual voter registration is roughly 33D, 20R, 47I.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3420120409015

[Tender Branson]

Sample looks too Republican though:

34% D, 25% R, 41% I

Actual voter registration is roughly 33D, 20R, 47I.

Doesn't matter: Even in this scenario, Obama leads 52-37 if we re-calculate the poll numbers.

[fezzyfestoon]

I don't know, this could be the beginning of New Jersey's traditional summer flirtation with Republicans. Look forward to a lot of "tossup" talk in the coming months as the biggest tease in the country struts her stuff for the perpetual runners up.

[Kevin]

I don't know, this could be the beginning of New Jersey's traditional summer flirtation with Republicans. Look forward to a lot of "tossup" talk in the coming months as the biggest tease in the country struts her stuff for the perpetual runners up.

Of course I'm not bothering considering NJ at the moment given that. However, if the floor somehow caves in  on Obama in the coming month's think it could ve very competitive.

NJ is Dem but it's not to the extent that states like CA, MD, or CT are so it's certainly possible given the blend of right circumstances.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Agreed but some people on here probably think Obamas gonna win Arizona and Missouri LOL.

[mondale84]

Agreed but some people on here probably think Obamas gonna win Arizona and Missouri LOL.

He's going to win 50 states and 70% of the PV duh...

[Former Moderate]

Quinnipiac is a decent pollster, and Romney is pretty much a tailor-made candidate for NJ. It will probably will wind up being the 10 point race that generic Republicans lose to generic Democrats by.