2012 Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

And Portman and Rubio switch places yet again, with both of them losing ground to the rest of the field:

Portman 16.5
Rubio 16.0
Christie 9.5
Daniels 8.5
McDonnell 6.3
Pawlenty 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Ayotte 3.8
Thune 3.5
Rice 3.0
Jindal 2.5
Toomey 1.9
J. Bush 1.6
Rand Paul 1.5
Santorum 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio back in first place yet again.

Up: Rubio, Christie, Rice
Down: Daniels, Ayotte

Rubio 18.5
Portman 16.7
Christie 10.9
Daniels 7.3
McDonnell 6.6
Pawlenty 5.3
Rice 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Thune 3.0
Ayotte 2.5
Toomey 2.1
Jindal 2.0
Santorum 2.0
McMorris-Rodgers 1.5
Rand Paul 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Portman, Jindal, Huckabee
Down: Rubio, Christie, Daniels, McDonnell

GOP VP

Portman 18.0
Rubio 17.4
Christie 8.5
Daniels 6.3
McDonnell 5.5
Rice 5.2
Jindal 4.9
Pawlenty 4.9
Ryan 4.6
Thune 3.2
Huckabee 3.0
Toomey 2.5
Ayotte 2.0
Rand Paul 1.7
Santorum 1.6

Dem. VP

Biden 93.8
Clinton 7.3

[Purch]

Christie made it clear that he's more intrested in being Governor again than being a Vp

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Rubio, Portman
Down: Christie, McDonnell, Daniels, Rice, Ryan, Huckabee

GOP VP

Rubio 23.2
Portman 19.0
Christie 7.4
Pawlenty 5.6
McDonnell 4.4
Daniels 4.0
Jindal 4.0
Rice 3.5
Ryan 3.5
Toomey 3.3
Ayotte 2.9
Thune 2.4
Huckabee 1.8
McMorris Rodgers 1.8
Rand Paul 1.7

Winning party:

Dems 58.8
GOP 40.1
other 0.8

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual

Obama 57.3
Romney 38.8
Clinton 1.9
Paul 1.5

Winning party

Dems 57.6
GOP 41.5
other 0.6

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 96.7
Paul 1.8
J. Bush 0.3
Huckabee 0.3

GOP VP nominee

Portman 23.0
Rubio 22.3
Christie 8.0
Pawlenty 6.0
Daniels 3.9
Jindal 3.8
Ryan 3.4
McDonnell 2.9
Rice 2.7
Ayotte 2.5
Toomey 2.2
Thune 1.9
Rand Paul 1.6
McMorris Rodgers 1.6
Huckabee 1.4

Dem. presidential nominee

Obama 97.3
Clinton 2.0
Biden 0.3

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 93.0
Clinton 5.6

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual

Obama 53.7
Romney 42.5
Clinton 2.3
Paul 1.8

Winning party

Dems 54.2
GOP 45.1
other 0.6

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 96.0
Paul 2.2
Santorum 0.6
J. Bush 0.3

GOP VP nominee

Portman 28.6
Rubio 20.0
Daniels 6.9
Pawlenty 6.4
Christie 5.9
Jindal 4.0
Rice 4.0
Thune 3.1
McDonnell 2.7
Ayotte 2.5
Ryan 2.4
McMorris Rodgers 2.3
Huckabee 1.5
Rand Paul 1.5
Toomey 1.5

[milhouse24]

I'm surprised that Portman is still way up.  I just think Thune is a more likely VP in many ways.  It might be GOP PR pushing for Portman so the Ohio voters get excited for Romney.  Portman just doesn't have much credibility with voters outside Ohio, and it could be a problem with Southern evangelicals. 

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Party

Dems 54.1
GOP 45.4
other 0.5

GOP VP nominee

Portman 26.6
Rubio 19.0
Daniels 7.1
Pawlenty 7.1
Christie 6.5
Jindal 6.5
McMorris Rodgers 3.5
Ryan 3.2
Thune 3.0
McDonnell 2.9
Rice 2.8
Rand Paul 2.5
Ayotte 2.4
Huckabee 1.4
J. Bush 1.1

[Mr. Morden]

The diehard Clintonistas aren't quite ready to give up….

Winning Individual

Obama 53.4
Romney 42.6
Clinton 2.7
Paul 1.2

GOP VP nominee

Portman 22.6
Rubio 19.0
Pawlenty 8.5
Daniels 7.1
Christie 7.0
Jindal 5.8
Thune 4.1
Ryan 4.0
McMorris-Rodgers 3.2
Rice 2.5
Ayotte 1.9
Rand Paul 1.9
J. Bush 1.5
Huckabee 1.0
Martinez 1.0

Democratic VP nominee

Biden 93.0
H. Clinton 3.6
B. Clinton 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

A very volatile day in the VP market.  News of Rubio not being vetted causes his price to drop sharply, but then it partially recovers when Romney says that he is being vetted.  Daniels drops hard when it's revealed that he's likely to be named Purdue University president.  And Pawlenty is surging like mad, now up to second place.

Up: Portman, Pawlenty, Ryan
Down: Rubio, McMorris-Rodgers, Rice, Daniels

Winning party

Dems 53.6
GOP 45.2
other 0.5

GOP VP nominee

Portman 25.0
Pawlenty 17.5
Rubio 15.1
Christie 7.4
Jindal 5.9
Ryan 5.5
Thune 4.3
McDonnell 3.0
McMorris-Rodgers 2.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Rice 1.5
J. Bush 1.4
Ayotte 1.3
Daniels 1.2
Huckabee 1.0
Martinez 1.0

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Portman 20.0
Rubio 12.9
Christie 11.0
McDonnell 7.2
Ryan 5.5
Daniels 5.2
Rice 3.5
Thune 3.4
Martinez 2.9
Ayotte 2.8
Jindal 2.8
Bush 2.7
Pawlenty 2.5
Rand Paul 2.0
Santorum 1.9

Pawlenty should be tied with Portman.

2 months later:

And Pawlenty is surging like mad, now up to second place.
----
GOP VP nominee

Portman 25.0
Pawlenty 17.5
Rubio 15.1
Christie 7.4
Jindal 5.9
Ryan 5.5
Thune 4.3
McDonnell 3.0
McMorris-Rodgers 2.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Rice 1.5
J. Bush 1.4
Ayotte 1.3
Daniels 1.2
Huckabee 1.0
Martinez 1.0

But I haven't found a way to play having only American credit cards.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Wire money. I know Beet is on there.

[LiberalJunkie]

Pawlenty now only .2% behind Portman at 23.8%

[Mr. Morden]

The market has been extremely volatile for the second day in a row.  Pawlenty led Portman briefly earlier today, but now is back to second place.  But he's made more big gains today, as Rubio has crashed further.

Up: Pawlenty, Jindal
Down: Rubio, Christie

Portman 24.7
Pawlenty 24.0
Rubio 7.7
Jindal 7.0
Ryan 5.5
Christie 5.0
Thune 5.0
McDonnell 3.0
McMorris-Rodgers 2.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Rice 1.3
J. Bush 1.1
Daniels 1.1
Ayotte 1.0
Martinez 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Big gains by Ryan, who's now up to fourth place.

Up: Rubio, Ryan
Down: Portman, Pawlenty

Portman 23.4
Pawlenty 20.8
Rubio 11.5
Ryan 11.0
Jindal 7.2
Thune 5.0
Christie 4.5
McDonnell 2.3
Rand Paul 1.9
Rice 1.9
Ayotte 1.4
J. Bush 1.1
McMorris-Rodgers 1.1
Daniels 0.9
Martinez 0.9

[Mr. Morden]

Thune now up to fourth place in the GOP VP market.

Up: Rubio, Thune, Christie, McDonnell, Rice
Down: Pawlenty, Ryan, Jindal

Winning Individual

Obama 54.2
Romney 42.6
Paul 1.8
Clinton 0.8
Santorum 0.3
Johnson 0.2

Winning Party

Dems 55.9
GOP 43.5
other 0.6

GOP VP nominee

Portman 24.0
Pawlenty 17.9
Rubio 13.5
Thune 7.0
Ryan 6.5
Christie 5.7
Jindal 5.0
McDonnell 4.0
Rice 3.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Ayotte 1.7
Heineman 1.5
Ron Paul 1.5
McMorris-Rodgers 1.4
J. Bush 1.1

Dem VP nominee

Biden 93.0
H. Clinton 6.0
B. Clinton 1.1

[State Comptroller Atkins]

It should be pointed out in this thread that Intrade gave a 70% chance that the individual mandate would be ruled unconstitutional.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It probably was a 70% chance.

[Mr. Morden]

It should be pointed out in this thread that Intrade gave a 70% chance that the individual mandate would be ruled unconstitutional.

Yes, and I've seen some folks on the interwebs try to use that to argue that Intrade was "wrong".  Which completely misunderstands probability.  Events with 70% probability don't happen 100% of the time.  We shouldn't be surprised when they don't happen.  If an event with 70% doesn't end up happening, does that mean that your estimate of its probability was wrong?  Of course not!

The real test of Intrade's accuracy is whether events it gives a 70% chance of happening happen 70% of the time, if events that it gives a 25% chance of happening happen 25% of the time, etc.

[WhyteRain]

No point tracking the presidential nomination share prices anymore.  So I'm retiring the old thread, and moving on to tracking VP nomination share prices.

GOP VP nomination

Rubio 24.7
Portman 11.9
Christie 10.5
McDonnell 8.5
Ryan 6.5
Martinez 4.5
Ron Paul 3.9
Daniels 3.7
Thune 2.8
Ayotte 2.7
Pawlenty 2.7
Santorum 2.6
Jindal 2.5

Dem. VP nomination

Biden 95.0
Clinton 4.0
Cuomo 0.2

I've been saying that Romney should pick a Western VP.  Amazingly, there's only one on the list that's even in the Mountain timezone (Martinez of New Mexico), and none from the Pacific!  Only Martinez, Thune, Pawlenty, and Paul are from states even west of the Mississippi (I'll count Jindal's Louisiana as east of the river, because the capital is).

If he'd pick a real Westerner (and I wouldn't pick Martinez after seeing what the MSM did in 2008 to the most politically-accomplished woman of her age in American history, a governor with 93% approval rating in her state) Romney could gain a lot of credibility -- with non-Mormons -- from Denver west.

Edit, because I forgot to comment on the Democrats:  Obama has to keep Biden because he's about the only one available in comparison with whom Obama looks intelligent.  Well, or Hillary, but nearly all voters feel that Bill will do her thinking for her.

[Harry]

the most politically-accomplished woman of her age in American history

Most people here are missing out on some great laughs by putting you on ignore.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Martinez is no Sarah Palin. This woman isn't a phony. She'd connect with voters without having to get gimmicky.

[WhyteRain]

Candidate                      Timezone

Rubio 24.7                      Eastern
Portman 11.9                  Eastern
Christie 10.5                   Eastern
McDonnell 8.5                 Eastern
Ryan 6.5                         Central
Martinez 4.5                    Mountain
Ron Paul 3.9                    Central
Daniels 3.7                      Eastern
Thune 2.8                        Central
Ayotte 2.7                       Eastern
Pawlenty 2.7                    Central
Santorum 2.6                  Eastern
Jindal 2.5                        Central

Total
64.6% from Eastern Timezone
18.4% from Central
4.5% from Mountain
0.0% from Pacific

[RogueBeaver]

It won't be Rubio, that's for sure.

As for Martinez she's said that she can't leave NM because she's guardian to a developmentally handicapped family member. Not the sort of thing where one says "On second thought..."