2012 Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

No point tracking the presidential nomination share prices anymore.  So I'm retiring the old thread, and moving on to tracking VP nomination share prices.

GOP VP nomination

Rubio 24.7
Portman 11.9
Christie 10.5
McDonnell 8.5
Ryan 6.5
Martinez 4.5
Ron Paul 3.9
Daniels 3.7
Thune 2.8
Ayotte 2.7
Pawlenty 2.7
Santorum 2.6
Jindal 2.5

Dem. VP nomination

Biden 95.0
Clinton 4.0
Cuomo 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

To answer the questions so far...

Yes, this thread can also be used to track the general election odds.  I won't be posting them as often as the VP odds, but you're welcome to do so yourself.

There is no VP contract for Burr.

There is a contract for Bachmann, but she's only at 0.1

There is a contract for Huckabee, and he's at 1.2.  I just didn't bother listing anyone below 2.5 in this update.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Portman
Down: Rubio, McDonnell, Martinez

Rubio 22.0
Portman 13.0
Christie 11.0
McDonnell 7.5
Ryan 6.3
Daniels 3.8
Martinez 3.1
Ayotte 3.0
Thune 3.0
Santorum 2.8
Jindal 2.4
Ron Paul 2.4
Pawlenty 2.4
J. Bush 1.9
Rand Paul 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio gave a more definitive sounding denial of interest yesterday:

http://www.kansascity.com/2012/04/19/3565104/marco-rubio-shuns-vice-president.html

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I'm still of the opinion that denials by any potential candidate mean nothing until it's time to be vetted.  But potentially more problematic for Rubio is that he's now proposing a Republican version of the DREAM Act:

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This may be dicey territory for Romney to get into if he were to pick Rubio as his running mate.  In any case, most likely as a consequence of this, Rubio's share price has crumbled, and he's now in 2nd place, with Portman in 1st....

Up: Portman, Daniels, Rice
Down: Rubio

Portman 20.0
Rubio 12.9
Christie 11.0
McDonnell 7.2
Ryan 5.5
Daniels 5.2
Rice 3.5
Thune 3.4
Martinez 2.9
Ayotte 2.8
Jindal 2.8
Bush 2.7
Pawlenty 2.5
Rand Paul 2.0
Santorum 1.9

Rubio did make one interesting Freudian slip though:

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[Mr. Morden]

Btw, here is the video of Rubio's Freudian slip:

http://www.politico.com/multimedia/video/2012/04/rubios-vp-freudian-slip.html

[Mr. Morden]

These stock rankings are pretty unreliable.  Its 99% based on gossipy media reports and media sentiment.

Of course it's "unreliable", as we have very little to go on yet.  It's possible to handicap the probabilities of future events happening, even when those probabilities are highly uncertain.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio rebounds a bit while Portman remains in first.  Daniels makes big gains.

Up: Rubio, Daniels
Down: Portman, McDonnell

Portman 18.5
Rubio 15.0
Christie 11.0
Daniels 10.0
Ryan 6.0
McDonnell 4.5
J. Bush 3.2
Ayotte 3.1
Thune 3.1
Rice 3.0
Martinez 2.8
Jindal 2.6
Pawlenty 2.0
McMorris-Rodgers 1.6
Santorum 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

The expectation is that Romney isn't going to try to pull a surprise like McCain did last time.  He'll leak the names of the top two or three finalists well in advance of making any decision, so that they can be scrutinized in the media before he locks himself into any particular nominee.

That's what it seemed like McCain was doing last time around, when the leaks suggested that it was either Pawlenty or Romney, but then he turned around and picked a name for which the campaign had given no previous indication that they were considering.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio back in first place, albeit just barely.

Up: Rubio, McDonnell, Pawlenty
Down: Portman, Christie, Daniels, Ryan, Bush

Rubio 18.1
Portman 17.5
Christie 9.5
Daniels 8.1
McDonnell 5.6
Pawlenty 4.1
Ryan 4.1
Thune 4.0
Ayotte 3.6
Jindal 2.6
Rice 2.6
J. Bush 2.0
Martinez 1.9
Toomey 1.5
Rand Paul 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio 17.9
Portman 17.5
Christie 9.0
Daniels 7.9
McDonnell 6.0
Pawlenty 4.5
Ryan 4.5
Ayotte 4.4
Thune 3.4
Rice 2.9
Jindal 2.6
J. Bush 2.3
Rand Paul 1.5
Santorum 1.5
Martinez 1.4
McMorris-Rodgers 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

And Portman and Rubio switch places yet again, with both of them losing ground to the rest of the field:

Portman 16.5
Rubio 16.0
Christie 9.5
Daniels 8.5
McDonnell 6.3
Pawlenty 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Ayotte 3.8
Thune 3.5
Rice 3.0
Jindal 2.5
Toomey 1.9
J. Bush 1.6
Rand Paul 1.5
Santorum 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio back in first place yet again.

Up: Rubio, Christie, Rice
Down: Daniels, Ayotte

Rubio 18.5
Portman 16.7
Christie 10.9
Daniels 7.3
McDonnell 6.6
Pawlenty 5.3
Rice 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Thune 3.0
Ayotte 2.5
Toomey 2.1
Jindal 2.0
Santorum 2.0
McMorris-Rodgers 1.5
Rand Paul 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Portman, Jindal, Huckabee
Down: Rubio, Christie, Daniels, McDonnell

GOP VP

Portman 18.0
Rubio 17.4
Christie 8.5
Daniels 6.3
McDonnell 5.5
Rice 5.2
Jindal 4.9
Pawlenty 4.9
Ryan 4.6
Thune 3.2
Huckabee 3.0
Toomey 2.5
Ayotte 2.0
Rand Paul 1.7
Santorum 1.6

Dem. VP

Biden 93.8
Clinton 7.3

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Rubio, Portman
Down: Christie, McDonnell, Daniels, Rice, Ryan, Huckabee

GOP VP

Rubio 23.2
Portman 19.0
Christie 7.4
Pawlenty 5.6
McDonnell 4.4
Daniels 4.0
Jindal 4.0
Rice 3.5
Ryan 3.5
Toomey 3.3
Ayotte 2.9
Thune 2.4
Huckabee 1.8
McMorris Rodgers 1.8
Rand Paul 1.7

Winning party:

Dems 58.8
GOP 40.1
other 0.8

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual

Obama 57.3
Romney 38.8
Clinton 1.9
Paul 1.5

Winning party

Dems 57.6
GOP 41.5
other 0.6

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 96.7
Paul 1.8
J. Bush 0.3
Huckabee 0.3

GOP VP nominee

Portman 23.0
Rubio 22.3
Christie 8.0
Pawlenty 6.0
Daniels 3.9
Jindal 3.8
Ryan 3.4
McDonnell 2.9
Rice 2.7
Ayotte 2.5
Toomey 2.2
Thune 1.9
Rand Paul 1.6
McMorris Rodgers 1.6
Huckabee 1.4

Dem. presidential nominee

Obama 97.3
Clinton 2.0
Biden 0.3

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 93.0
Clinton 5.6

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual

Obama 53.7
Romney 42.5
Clinton 2.3
Paul 1.8

Winning party

Dems 54.2
GOP 45.1
other 0.6

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 96.0
Paul 2.2
Santorum 0.6
J. Bush 0.3

GOP VP nominee

Portman 28.6
Rubio 20.0
Daniels 6.9
Pawlenty 6.4
Christie 5.9
Jindal 4.0
Rice 4.0
Thune 3.1
McDonnell 2.7
Ayotte 2.5
Ryan 2.4
McMorris Rodgers 2.3
Huckabee 1.5
Rand Paul 1.5
Toomey 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Party

Dems 54.1
GOP 45.4
other 0.5

GOP VP nominee

Portman 26.6
Rubio 19.0
Daniels 7.1
Pawlenty 7.1
Christie 6.5
Jindal 6.5
McMorris Rodgers 3.5
Ryan 3.2
Thune 3.0
McDonnell 2.9
Rice 2.8
Rand Paul 2.5
Ayotte 2.4
Huckabee 1.4
J. Bush 1.1

[Mr. Morden]

The diehard Clintonistas aren't quite ready to give up….

Winning Individual

Obama 53.4
Romney 42.6
Clinton 2.7
Paul 1.2

GOP VP nominee

Portman 22.6
Rubio 19.0
Pawlenty 8.5
Daniels 7.1
Christie 7.0
Jindal 5.8
Thune 4.1
Ryan 4.0
McMorris-Rodgers 3.2
Rice 2.5
Ayotte 1.9
Rand Paul 1.9
J. Bush 1.5
Huckabee 1.0
Martinez 1.0

Democratic VP nominee

Biden 93.0
H. Clinton 3.6
B. Clinton 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

A very volatile day in the VP market.  News of Rubio not being vetted causes his price to drop sharply, but then it partially recovers when Romney says that he is being vetted.  Daniels drops hard when it's revealed that he's likely to be named Purdue University president.  And Pawlenty is surging like mad, now up to second place.

Up: Portman, Pawlenty, Ryan
Down: Rubio, McMorris-Rodgers, Rice, Daniels

Winning party

Dems 53.6
GOP 45.2
other 0.5

GOP VP nominee

Portman 25.0
Pawlenty 17.5
Rubio 15.1
Christie 7.4
Jindal 5.9
Ryan 5.5
Thune 4.3
McDonnell 3.0
McMorris-Rodgers 2.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Rice 1.5
J. Bush 1.4
Ayotte 1.3
Daniels 1.2
Huckabee 1.0
Martinez 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

The market has been extremely volatile for the second day in a row.  Pawlenty led Portman briefly earlier today, but now is back to second place.  But he's made more big gains today, as Rubio has crashed further.

Up: Pawlenty, Jindal
Down: Rubio, Christie

Portman 24.7
Pawlenty 24.0
Rubio 7.7
Jindal 7.0
Ryan 5.5
Christie 5.0
Thune 5.0
McDonnell 3.0
McMorris-Rodgers 2.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Rice 1.3
J. Bush 1.1
Daniels 1.1
Ayotte 1.0
Martinez 1.0

[Mr. Morden]

Big gains by Ryan, who's now up to fourth place.

Up: Rubio, Ryan
Down: Portman, Pawlenty

Portman 23.4
Pawlenty 20.8
Rubio 11.5
Ryan 11.0
Jindal 7.2
Thune 5.0
Christie 4.5
McDonnell 2.3
Rand Paul 1.9
Rice 1.9
Ayotte 1.4
J. Bush 1.1
McMorris-Rodgers 1.1
Daniels 0.9
Martinez 0.9

[Mr. Morden]

Thune now up to fourth place in the GOP VP market.

Up: Rubio, Thune, Christie, McDonnell, Rice
Down: Pawlenty, Ryan, Jindal

Winning Individual

Obama 54.2
Romney 42.6
Paul 1.8
Clinton 0.8
Santorum 0.3
Johnson 0.2

Winning Party

Dems 55.9
GOP 43.5
other 0.6

GOP VP nominee

Portman 24.0
Pawlenty 17.9
Rubio 13.5
Thune 7.0
Ryan 6.5
Christie 5.7
Jindal 5.0
McDonnell 4.0
Rice 3.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Ayotte 1.7
Heineman 1.5
Ron Paul 1.5
McMorris-Rodgers 1.4
J. Bush 1.1

Dem VP nominee

Biden 93.0
H. Clinton 6.0
B. Clinton 1.1

[Mr. Morden]

It should be pointed out in this thread that Intrade gave a 70% chance that the individual mandate would be ruled unconstitutional.

Yes, and I've seen some folks on the interwebs try to use that to argue that Intrade was "wrong".  Which completely misunderstands probability.  Events with 70% probability don't happen 100% of the time.  We shouldn't be surprised when they don't happen.  If an event with 70% doesn't end up happening, does that mean that your estimate of its probability was wrong?  Of course not!

The real test of Intrade's accuracy is whether events it gives a 70% chance of happening happen 70% of the time, if events that it gives a 25% chance of happening happen 25% of the time, etc.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Portman, Jindal, Ayotte
Down: Rubio, Thune, Ryan, Christie, McDonnell

Winning party

Dems 56.1
GOP 42.2
other 0.5

GOP VP nominee

Portman 31.0
Pawlenty 18.4
Rubio 9.9
Jindal 6.3
Thune 5.2
Ryan 4.5
Rice 3.5
Ayotte 3.0
Christie 2.5
McMorris-Rodgers 2.3
McDonnell 2.1
Martinez 1.0
Ron Paul 0.6
DeMint 0.5
Haley 0.5
Huckabee 0.5
Kyl 0.5
Rand Paul 0.5

Also, futures on the 2016 Democratic nomination for president are trading at Ladbrokes.com.  With the odds converted into Intrade-like probabilities, the prices are:

H. Clinton 20.0
Biden 8.3
Cuomo 7.1
O'Malley 7.1
Warren 4.5
Hickenlooper 3.7
Kaine 3.7
Patrick 3.7
Schweitzer 3.7
Warner 3.7
Bayh 2.9
Emmanual 2.9
Napolitano 2.9
Webb 2.9
Booker 2.3
S. Brown 1.9
Gillibrand 1.9
Gore 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

GOP VP nominee

Portman 30.9
Pawlenty 17.6
Rubio 9.2
Jindal 6.7
Thune 5.9
Ryan 4.1
Rice 4.0
Ayotte 3.4
Christie 2.8
McDonnell 2.7
McMorris-Rodgers 1.9
Martinez 1.0
J. Bush 0.6
Rand Paul 0.6
Ron Paul 0.6

Four years ago at this time:

Dems

Clinton 15.3
Bayh 11.9
Sebelius 10.3
Hagel 10.0
Kaine 8.5
Biden 8.1
Richardson 6.1
Nunn 6.0
McCaskill 5.1

GOP

Romney 26.9
Huckabee 14.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Crist 10.0
Portman 8.0
Fiorina 7.0
Palin 7.0
Thune 6.0
Cantor 5.0
Jindal 4.0