2012 Intrade rankings

[Bull Moose Base]

I don't what's more insulting to Gingrich, retiring the president thread or him not being on this list.

Ron Paul only 3.9?  What a bargain.

[Bull Moose Base]

I don't think the GOP Dream Act hurts since Romney is pretty obviously looking for a way to walk back the immigration red meat he threw out during the primary.  Price fall probably driven by Rubio's more convincing denial (unless he's ineptly overdoing the traditional feigning disinterest) and (or itself driven by) new PPP polling showing he doesn't help with Latinos and hurts in Florida.

McDonnell and Ryan... Romney's far too cautious to ever do that and if his polling dropped and he needed a game change, he'd go with one with more potential upside. I do enjoy McDonnell's tossing aside tradition and running ads for himself for VP.

I used to think Christie was too high because Romney can't possibly trust him but have to take that back after PPP showed him helping Romney most.  That will probably the biggest factor in the selection. Christie, is slightly more subtle than McDonnell, but pretty transparently fishing for an offer.

Pawlenty should be tied with Portman.

[Bull Moose Base]

Portman 20.0
Rubio 12.9
Christie 11.0
McDonnell 7.2
Ryan 5.5
Daniels 5.2
Rice 3.5
Thune 3.4
Martinez 2.9
Ayotte 2.8
Jindal 2.8
Bush 2.7
Pawlenty 2.5
Rand Paul 2.0
Santorum 1.9

Pawlenty should be tied with Portman.

2 months later:

And Pawlenty is surging like mad, now up to second place.
----
GOP VP nominee

Portman 25.0
Pawlenty 17.5
Rubio 15.1
Christie 7.4
Jindal 5.9
Ryan 5.5
Thune 4.3
McDonnell 3.0
McMorris-Rodgers 2.0
Rand Paul 2.0
Rice 1.5
J. Bush 1.4
Ayotte 1.3
Daniels 1.2
Huckabee 1.0
Martinez 1.0

But I haven't found a way to play having only American credit cards.