Is this election over? (April 2012)

[J. J.]

Not even close to over.

[LastVoter]

The conservatives will vote for Romney regardless. They are the least rebellious group.

[You kip if you want to...]

The conservatives will vote for Romney regardless. They are the least rebellious group.

There's a difference between staying loyal and actually turning out in the first place though. See: 2008.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

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Most challengers have low negatives. Devil you know. Heck, even Bush II would have a better chance in this election than Romney.

Obama's not exactly basking in high popularity himself, though.

Considerably, considerably higher than Romney's, he is.

[Wisconsin+17]

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This conservative isn't. He simply doesn't represent me.

[LastVoter]

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This conservative isn't. He simply doesn't represent me.

Romney isn't about to lose MS,TN,AL,OK,KY etc.
Do you really think that Santorum would do better than Romney in general? He managed to alienate another group of voters for Republicans(women). He doesn't have the funds to compete as demonstrated in the primary. Republicans simply didn't have a candidate who could win this cycle. The only possibilities were Perry if he wasn't dumb, or Huntsman if he wasn't approaching Romney empathy level.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

When the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney this year, they will be conceding the enthusiasm, the base, any Independent/moderate/crossover support they might have once had, the woman vote, and ultimately, the GOP message against Obama's health care bill.  And the more people learn about Mitt Romney and see him, the less they like him.  How can we expect that trend to suddenly reverse, especially if the economy continues to improve?  The polls alone project a negative outlook for the GOP this November.  You can't win an election with a candidate that has 60% of the party in strong dislike of him.  You just can't.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Look at how much he had to spend vs Santorum just to achieve his margins. Is Romney going to win when he no longer has 3:1 advantages in spending? No.

I think he'll lose all of these states come October. The only positive news for him has been a university poll showing him up 4 in VA.

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Absolutely. Give him actual resources, and not the shoe string and we see what he's actually able to do!

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Romney's numbers with women are no different. It's not Santorum who's alienated women.

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Not relevent in the general.

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Then it behooves the republicans to nominate the candidate who represents the base of the party. Nominating Romney who will lose is simply futile. 

[Democratic Hawk]

I actually give Romney a BETTER chance than Obama at this point, maybe 55%.  Obama is only human and the economy is not improving fast enough, and the disappointing March Jobs Report was just another example of that.  Obama can no longer blame the mess we're in on Bush.  He's been in for nearly 3 1/2 years and he has to start taking responsibility for the mess and owning up to the mess.

What mess would that be? Deficits? Debt? Its Bush 43 policies that continue to drive those - given that most of the increase under Obama seem to be the consequence of the 'Great Recession' rather than the necessary response (ARRA) to it - and perhaps had the Reactionary Party not made gains in the 2010 mid-terms, the economic recovery may well have been more robust with unemployment trending more, heavily, downwards, while sunset on the unaffordable Bush tax cuts, even if only on the wealthiest, may well have reigned in the deficit

It remains to be seen if U1 will be lower come November but if it is then on that measure Obama will easily have bested George W, under whom it rose, from 4.2% to 5.4%, during his first-term - and if conservatives can credit Bush 43 for getting the US out of what they called the 'Clinton-Gore Recession' I can surely, similarly, credit Obama

Romney stands for nothing beyond his own advancement and enrichment (perhaps that's why his favorables suck?)

As to whether this election is over? No because much could happen for better or worse

[Adam Griffin]

I never thought Romney would walk into this election being so damaged. Granted, he's done a lot of it to himself, but there's absolutely no excuse for such a decent candidate on paper with so much money to be roughed up so badly after dueling with a bunch of candidates that are running organizations that can barely be considered on par with a HoR campaign.

Obama - in any other climate - would be having his tuckus handed to him at this point. Unemployment's still above 8%. We're still down several million jobs from where we need to be. Even if much of the lack of action has been caused by political gridlock, the public should be blaming Obama, but they are not.

I don't see how Romney can reverse this. It's one thing to blast the airwaves and media markets of primary states with millions and millions of dollars; opinions can change. When your unfavorable rating is hovering at 60% and your favorables are below 30% among the general electorate (specifically independents), however, there's no room left to gain much ground. Unfavorables are not nearly as fluid as favorables, even when you have $1 billion to throw at the problem. Romney would get 42-44% of the PV if the election were held today.

Of course something big could happen, and I can only be grateful for the wave of Republican ineptitude and incompetence that us Democrats are hopefully going to be able to ride through the general election. With that being said, I'd give Romney a 20% shot.

[Brittain33]

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This conservative isn't. He simply doesn't represent me.

Obama will say or do something between now and November that will make you vote for Romney. I guarantee it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, with 5 months to go a lot of things can happen. I'd say 25-30% is a sound estimate.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Yeah, with 5 months to go a lot of things can happen. I'd say 25-30% is a sound estimate.

Actually, there are still 6 1/2 months, so even more can change.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mitt Romney is the second-rate substitute for a Republican version of John Kerry. I predict pretty low turnout (Democrats and Republicans alike, but Republicans even more so) and a relatively comfortable victory for Obama PV/EV-wise.

That being said, chances for a Obama defeat are probably a tad higher than 10%. But it is definitely Obama's race to lose.

[Volrath50]

My guess is that Romney is somewhere around 35-40% odds to win. Maybe as low as 30%, but probably not that low.

Obama is certainly the favorite. Romney is a terrible nominee. However, terrible nominees can still win from time to time.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm with Antonio.

[Paul Kemp]

Absolutely not. It's gonna come down to one or two states.

[RI]

Barring dead boy, live girl, it's over.

[NHI]

It's not over yet. I'd say 50/50 right now.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

This election is far from over. On Labor day we can get a better feel for who is likely to win.

Anyone who thinks it's over is either a hack or suffering from mental trauma.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I can guarantee you that I won't be voting for Romney in the general.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So much can change. At this point, even barring a live boy/dead girl situation, the only certain Romney states are ID, WY, and UT. The only ironclad Obama states are DC, MD, VT, HI, and RI.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

When is Romney going to start buying ads in battleground states?

[Wisconsin+17]

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[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

So much can change. At this point, even barring a live boy/dead girl situation, the only certain Romney states are ID, WY, and UT. The only ironclad Obama states are DC, MD, VT, HI, and RI.

Are you implying Obama could win OK?