Future of Fianna Fail

[politicus]

Any thoughts about the future of Fianna Fail? The party seems to me to be a typical "party of power" like the Mexican PRI.  A broad tent nationalistic populist party without a coherent ideology whose only real raison d'etre is to be an instrument of power for the establishment. Can they survive being reduced to a relatively small party?
Seen from my outsider perspective Ireland only needs one centre-right party: Christian democratic, pro-business and moderate enough not to frighten centrists and that role is already taken by Fine Gael. In addition there might be room for a rural/periphery party like the "Center" parties in the Nordic countries, but I don't see FF fitting the bill for that role either.
The party actually seems pretty redundant in modern Ireland.
How do you see their future? Is de Valeras old party on its way out, or will it bounce back?

[politicus]

Seen from my outsider perspective Ireland only needs one centre-right party: Christian democratic, pro-business and moderate enough not to frighten centrists and that role is already taken by Fine Gael.

The one thing that could be unequivocally said in Fianna Fáil's favour over the last eighty years was that by occupying a dominant position in the centre, it prevented Fine Gael from gaining power on its own (and Fine Gael in its 1930s incarnation absolutely needed to be kept out of power).

Sure, but that's history. In its present incarnation FG seems to be a fairly moderate party - not more right wing than the German CDU.

[politicus]

This thread has touched some interesting topics, but it is straying a bit from my original question about the future of FF.

1. Populists without much in the way of core beliefs (in their modern incarnation). Agree/disagree?

2. "Party of power" / no longer in power (and not likely to become dominant again?).
There do they go from here?  Any thoughts?

[politicus]

The most likely future is as a predominantly rural analogue of the Scandinavian Centre parties, because while I don't see the urban vote returning any time soon, in a lot of rural areas they are the only organised or semi-credible alternative to Fine Gael at local level.

That is the one available niche I saw on the centre-right side. Ireland is significantly smaller than Sweden, Norway and Finland, but you have a strong rural/urban divide for such a small country.
They could hold the balance of power between FG and Labour/Sinn Fein.

Nordic centrists survive on a mix of support for rural subsidies/interests and some single issues to attract "non-socialist" voters who are not comfortable with the major centre-right parties: enviroment/ecology, euro-scepticism and a "humane" approach to immigration and crime. I suppose nationalism and perhaps euro-scepticism could still work as such profile issues for FF. Maybe also civil rights? (if FG has an authoritarian bias as you claimed).

[politicus]

Resigning in disgrace seems to be something PMs in Anglo-Saxon countries do quite often (or, when they don't, getting thrown out by their own party).

The Irish are hardly Anglo-Saxon, even if they do have a drop of English blood or two