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Author Topic: NC and FL in election  (Read 776 times)
jman123
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« on: April 12, 2012, 05:34:54 pm »
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why is NC and Florida trending Dem?

 They went solidly for Bush in 2004.
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2012, 05:37:07 pm »
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North Carolina is becoming more moderate due to influences from around the country and the slow but steady "trickle-down" effect that has leeched from from the Northeast and is taking VA and NC along for the ride. Georgia and to some extent, South Carolina, aren't too far away from benefiting from this effect.

I think Florida, however, will remain a toss-up for 10-15 years. Geez, I've typed that line like three times in three different posts on here in the past 30 minutes.
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2012, 05:39:07 pm »
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North Carolina is becoming more moderate due to influences from around the country and the slow but steady "trickle-down" effect that has leeched from from the Northeast and is taking VA and NC along for the ride.

Also, NC is becoming less rural and more cosmopolitan.
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2012, 06:14:17 pm »
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I don't think Florida is trending dem at all. NC is just becoming more urban.
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2012, 06:16:27 pm »
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I think NC will prob go back to the GOP this cycle given the environment and how Obama only win it due to the wave 2008 was for the Dems. The same would be mostly true for VA too.

I can't speak for FL though.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2012, 07:17:02 pm »
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Because Romney is a disaster as a nominee. Next. Republicans have to nominate a serious candidate next time.
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2012, 07:32:19 pm »
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It is not likely there was a candidate with a higher level of seriousness running this time around.

The good thing is that they are all finished, politically.

As for the North Carolina, the answer is so many Yankees like myself have moved here expecting to find greener pastures (though in my case it turned out to be just as bad). Most of these are either liberals or people familiar with a less "Southern" GOP and thus they find a much more pleasant membership in the Democratic party.

There is also the presence of a large number of Universities, taking in good ole' country boys and turning out cosmopolitan yuppies.

Even one of the GOP legislative leaders conceeded that in a few years the Marriage Amendment will likely be repealed by the voters, should it pass in May.
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2012, 08:25:04 pm »
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It's worth remembering that Obama lost college-educated whites in NC in 2008, 61-38. The thing is, that's good enough in a state where the electorate was 72% white, 23% black, and 6% everything else.
If you compare NC and SC, they're quite similar in terms of racial distribution, and Obama did about as well with white college graduates in SC, losing them 68-32. The difference is with non-college educated whites, whom Obama lost 67-33 in NC, and 78-21 in SC. College-educated whites are also a slightly higher share of the population in NC, at 41% as opposed to 37% in SC, but the relatively better performance among non college-educated whites in NC is crucial, too.
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« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2012, 08:58:42 pm »
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The good thing is that they are all finished, politically.

By the erstwhile tradition of the GOP - Romney is doomed. Santorum did just fine for his first run out winning 10 states off Romney the 'inevitable'.

Or do you forget that's why it was Romney's turn this time? Wink
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2012, 09:04:56 pm »
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The good thing is that they are all finished, politically.

By the erstwhile tradition of the GOP - Romney is doomed. Santorum did just fine for his first run out winning 10 states off Romney the 'inevitable'.

Or do you forget that's why it was Romney's turn this time? Wink


There'll be even less fuel for Santorum in 2016.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #10 on: April 12, 2012, 10:02:36 pm »
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Florida's been trending well demographically for Democrats over the past few decades; it's the Republican leadership in Tallahassee drawing maps that benefit the Republicans, which they're able to do because the Florida Democratic Party was rather petty during its long reign (pretty much statehood to about Gov. Askew) and made no real preparations for a swing-state Florida. Even now, the FDP is concentrating a good chunk of funding on Liberty, Gilchrist, Baker, Union, Calhoun, Dixie,'Suwanee, Levy, and a good number of other tiny Panhandle counties that I've never heard of (these are the counties that were colored Gingrich on your TV screen during the FL primary, and which contain a lot of Democrats who are such just because their grandfather's grandfathers were, but who vote Republican every single election), to try to help the North Florida Blue Dogs who are in charge of much of the party (Example: Party Chairman (and 2010 LG candidate) Rod Smith said during his campaign something like "We are goin to win Dixie County". He lost by 14%, and if he had won every single vote cast in Dixie, he sill would have lost.). There's a lot of Democratic energy in Florida (Awake The State, Progress Florida, Pink Slip Rick), but the FDP is not really liberal and doesn't concentrate on those Democratic or Democratic-trending areas (Citrus County (Orlando), South Florida, Tampa Bay, Tallahassee). And that's why Florida's the way it is (at least according to this Floridian).
« Last Edit: April 12, 2012, 10:10:09 pm by sjoycefla »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2012, 10:16:20 pm »
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It's also worth noting that Obama didn't do so horrible in the mountain counties of NC. He won a few and was competitive in others. Cross the state line south of Highlands into the North Georgia mountains and Obama was clobbered. Obama didn't crack 30% in a single county in North Georgia, despite being culturally similar to western North Carolina. You might even say that Obama's unusual strength in a region he should not have been competitive in actually won him North Carolina.

I get Obama winning counties like Buncombe, home of Asheville, but can anyone explain to me how he was competitive in the more rural mountain counties?
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« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2012, 10:35:06 pm »
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It's also worth noting that Obama didn't do so horrible in the mountain counties of NC. He won a few and was competitive in others. Cross the state line south of Highlands into the North Georgia mountains and Obama was clobbered. Obama didn't crack 30% in a single county in North Georgia, despite being culturally similar to western North Carolina. You might even say that Obama's unusual strength in a region he should not have been competitive in actually won him North Carolina.

I get Obama winning counties like Buncombe, home of Asheville, but can anyone explain to me how he was competitive in the more rural mountain counties?
2 reasons - It's Appalachia(poverty) and moderate race relations in NC.
There was "moderate" Democratic governor during Civil Rights era. The whites in North Carolina were never as polarized as in other southern states. Blacks obviously vote for democrats still. Combined with the poverty of the region I am guessing that's why the two counties voted for Obama.
Jackson - 10% Native American.
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« Reply #13 on: April 12, 2012, 11:52:32 pm »
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I get Obama winning counties like Buncombe, home of Asheville, but can anyone explain to me how he was competitive in the more rural mountain counties?

1) Yankees, although there's quite a few in NE GA as well. Not sure why the effect wasn't as notable.

2 & 3)
2 reasons - It's Appalachia(poverty) and moderate race relations in NC.
There was "moderate" Democratic governor during Civil Rights era.

4) Media markets - This may be the ticket. Look at 2008 and look at the extreme tip of NC (Clay and Cherokee Counties). They are in the Chattanooga media market, along with much of NW GA and SE TN. The rest of those areas went ~10 points more Democratic than those two counties.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2012, 12:04:43 am »
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It's also worth noting that Obama didn't do so horrible in the mountain counties of NC. He won a few and was competitive in others. Cross the state line south of Highlands into the North Georgia mountains and Obama was clobbered. Obama didn't crack 30% in a single county in North Georgia, despite being culturally similar to western North Carolina. You might even say that Obama's unusual strength in a region he should not have been competitive in actually won him North Carolina.

I get Obama winning counties like Buncombe, home of Asheville, but can anyone explain to me how he was competitive in the more rural mountain counties?
The whites in North Carolina were never as polarized as in other southern states.

Southeastern NC is still pretty racially polarized; Obama performed very poorly there compared to Hagan and Perdue.
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2012, 11:13:27 am »
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It's also worth noting that Obama didn't do so horrible in the mountain counties of NC. He won a few and was competitive in others. Cross the state line south of Highlands into the North Georgia mountains and Obama was clobbered. Obama didn't crack 30% in a single county in North Georgia, despite being culturally similar to western North Carolina. You might even say that Obama's unusual strength in a region he should not have been competitive in actually won him North Carolina.

I get Obama winning counties like Buncombe, home of Asheville, but can anyone explain to me how he was competitive in the more rural mountain counties?
2 reasons - It's Appalachia(poverty) and moderate race relations in NC.
There was "moderate" Democratic governor during Civil Rights era. The whites in North Carolina were never as polarized as in other southern states. Blacks obviously vote for democrats still. Combined with the poverty of the region I am guessing that's why the two counties voted for Obama.
Jackson - 10% Native American.

Georgia also had moderate governors during the civil rights era. Ernest Vandiver was governor from 1959 to 1963 and while he talked a good game about desegregation, his record doesn't match it. He didn't fight the desegregation of UGA in 1961 and he presided over the integration of Atlanta public schools. Carl Sanders was the next gov from 1963 to 1967 and he is noted for cooperating with Kennedy and Johnson on Civil Rights. In fact, during the Democratic primary in 1970 Jimmy Carter criticized Sanders for paying tribute to MLK. Talk about ironic.

Of course, after Sanders we had to deal with Lester Maddox, who more than made up for Vandiver and Sanders in fiery racist rhetoric. But I will say, right before he died, around 2002, I saw him at S&S Cafeteria in Chamblee (he knew my grandfather), and he was one of the nicest/eccentric people I had ever met.
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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2012, 11:26:38 am »
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Florida started out more toss up than North Carolina but there's no question North Carolina has swung further recently to the Democratic side than Florida considering the demographics and where they started. I still say Florida is more likely a Democrat state than North Carolina, though.

In Florida's case I think it's pretty simple: Miami. That city has a solid hispanic population that's growing heavily. Like I said in another thread it's not yet a situation where one city or area speaks for the whole state but if the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas keep growing at their current pace it could get there in the next 20-30 years.
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« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2012, 04:46:32 pm »
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In Florida's case I think it's pretty simple: Miami. That city has a solid hispanic population that's growing heavily. Like I said in another thread it's not yet a situation where one city or area speaks for the whole state but if the Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas keep growing at their current pace it could get there in the next 20-30 years.

Looking at current growth rates, if St. Pete-Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Sarasota-Bradenton keep growing at the rates they're growing, yeah, South Florida'd be a bit bigger than all of em, but Miami is no Cook County, not for another 50+ years (might be a bit biased here, though, as a Tampa Bay-ian).
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« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2012, 05:16:13 pm »
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The good thing is that they are all finished, politically.

By the erstwhile tradition of the GOP - Romney is doomed. Santorum did just fine for his first run out winning 10 states off Romney the 'inevitable'.

Or do you forget that's why it was Romney's turn this time? Wink


Why would conservatives want to go for someone like Rick Santorum over someone like Marco Rubio, Bob McDonnell or any of the other stronger conservative candidates who are up and coming or didn't run this time? Santorum is not a good candidate at all. He can't stay on message and he lacks discipline. His debating style is one of the reasons he didn't break out sooner, because people saw someone who looked like he was constantly pissed off. He makes gaffes and then doubles down on it and then blames the media if it costs him in the end. That doesn't work. I think the Republicans will be looking for a fresh start in 2016, preferring to just wash their hands of this horrible cycle and all of its lame candidates, especially if Obama gets reelected.

Santorum at best will end up in 2016, like John Edwards running in 2008, at worst like John Kerry's abortive 2008 effort and/or Dan Quayle's attempts.
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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2012, 05:28:03 pm »
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Why would conservatives want to go for someone like Rick Santorum over someone like Marco Rubio, Bob McDonnell or any of the other stronger conservative candidates

Rick Santorum showed that he was capable of successfully leading a competitive national campaign. That's more than any of the conservatives that were up for the nomination in this go demonstrated, and something that was a knock on him prior to entering the primary.

He's going to be the standard bearer due to age, and has cut his chops with a presidential campaign (and quite successful one by republican standards) after Romney gets destroyed in the general. 

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Santorum is not a good candidate at all.

Nonsense. He's done very well.

John Edwards didn't win 10 states. No republican nominee has ever won that many and not gone on to be the nominee in a subsequent election. Like it or not, Santorum's earned his spot. Since all you moderates insist that it's Romney's turn, it's going to be Santorum's turn in 2016.

And rightfully so.
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2012, 05:40:24 pm »
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Why would conservatives want to go for someone like Rick Santorum over someone like Marco Rubio, Bob McDonnell or any of the other stronger conservative candidates

Rick Santorum showed that he was capable of successfully leading a competitive national campaign. That's more than any of the conservatives that were up for the nomination in this go demonstrated, and something that was a knock on him prior to entering the primary.

He's going to be the standard bearer due to age, and has cut his chops with a presidential campaign (and quite successful one by republican standards) after Romney gets destroyed in the general. 

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Santorum is not a good candidate at all.

Nonsense. He's done very well.

John Edwards didn't win 10 states. No republican nominee has ever won that many and not gone on to be the nominee in a subsequent election. Like it or not, Santorum's earned his spot. Since all you moderates insist that it's Romney's turn, it's going to be Santorum's turn in 2016.

And rightfully so.

I don't think Santorum completely proved that he can run a successful national campaign, I think he caught lightening in a bottle with the anti-Romney conservatives and rode that wave.

Rick never really gained any traction with the moderates and somewhat conservatives. It won't ever be his turn unless he can win those people over, which might be tough with his social agenda. Rick is just as flawed as Romney, he would lose against a strong challenger that can appeal to a bigger cross section of voters.

I think it will only be his turn again if the field is as weak in 2016 as it was this year.
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« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2012, 05:44:23 pm »
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The social wing that Santorum champions will be even weaker in 2016. Four more years of social progressive shifts will make him even more of an extremist than he was in this cycle. I'm sure whatever is left of the base in 2016 will still love him, but there will probably be a repeat of 2012 where you have several conservative candidates that will selfishly split the vote and allow a moderate to get it. Plus, there are a lot of really strong moderate Republicans (Christie, Jindal, Rubio, Daniels) that will or may be running in 2016, which will more than likely suck any remaining oxygen out of the mix for Santorum.
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« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2012, 06:48:12 pm »
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Why would conservatives want to go for someone like Rick Santorum over someone like Marco Rubio, Bob McDonnell or any of the other stronger conservative candidates

Rick Santorum showed that he was capable of successfully leading a competitive national campaign. That's more than any of the conservatives that were up for the nomination in this go demonstrated, and something that was a knock on him prior to entering the primary.

He's going to be the standard bearer due to age, and has cut his chops with a presidential campaign (and quite successful one by republican standards) after Romney gets destroyed in the general. 

Quote
Santorum is not a good candidate at all.

Nonsense. He's done very well.

John Edwards didn't win 10 states. No republican nominee has ever won that many and not gone on to be the nominee in a subsequent election. Like it or not, Santorum's earned his spot. Since all you moderates insist that it's Romney's turn, it's going to be Santorum's turn in 2016.

And rightfully so.

Against Romney, another weak candidate, no? And that is only because all the other Anti-Romney's imploded. He is done.

I am not a moderate.
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« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2012, 06:54:15 pm »
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The social wing that Santorum champions will be even weaker in 2016. Four more years of social progressive shifts will make him even more of an extremist than he was in this cycle. I'm sure whatever is left of the base in 2016 will still love him, but there will probably be a repeat of 2012 where you have several conservative candidates that will selfishly split the vote and allow a moderate to get it. Plus, there are a lot of really strong moderate Republicans (Christie, Jindal, Rubio, Daniels) that will or may be running in 2016, which will more than likely suck any remaining oxygen out of the mix for Santorum.

Jindal and Rubio are moderates, now? If they are moderates in this crazy world then I change my mind, I am one too. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2012, 06:57:59 pm »
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The social wing that Santorum champions will be even weaker in 2016. Four more years of social progressive shifts will make him even more of an extremist than he was in this cycle. I'm sure whatever is left of the base in 2016 will still love him, but there will probably be a repeat of 2012 where you have several conservative candidates that will selfishly split the vote and allow a moderate to get it. Plus, there are a lot of really strong moderate Republicans (Christie, Jindal, Rubio, Daniels) that will or may be running in 2016, which will more than likely suck any remaining oxygen out of the mix for Santorum.

Jindal and Rubio are moderates, now? If they are moderates in this crazy world then I change my mind, I am one too. Roll Eyes

I probably should have put a '/' in between strong and moderate. Hell, G.W.'s a moderate by today's crazy crop.
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