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| | |-+  How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?
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Author Topic: How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?  (Read 3985 times)
LastVoter
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« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2012, 04:32:16 am »
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WA:

If Obama improves with working-class whites, he may win Spokane; if he deteriorates, he'll probably lose Klickitat and Wahkiakum.  Beyond that, I don't expect Washington to swing much.  Obama has probably maxed out on counties besides Spokane.  There are a few others Romney might take back in a victory scenario -- basically all the Bush '04 counties plus possibly Mason...although Skagit might be beyond redemption for the Republicans.

sry no pretty map
In my opinion there are liberals & minorities in Spokane now than four years ago.
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« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2012, 08:50:20 am »
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Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:


I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...
You think Romney will win Salem but not Somerset? Obama was actually the first Democrat since 1964 to win Somerset so if the state swings against him (which I'm not convinced of), he'd almost certainly lose it.

Oh, definitely. I wouldn't be surprised to see Somerset start to fall (barely) on the Democratic side in national races. It was actually the only county in the state to have trended Democratic for both of the last two elections. The demographics are changing so drastically in the urban center of the county while Franklin becomes more Democratic and the Somerset Hills' rabid support of Christie/Romney type Republicans is softening. Meanwhile South Jersey's Democratic support has almost always been somewhat soft. They're much more likely to swing back and forth than North Jersey.

That being said, I'm expecting Romney to relatively underperform because I expect a reasonably large Obama win. I think Somerset is a tough one simply because it's just so loaded with wealthy voters and Hispanics. It'll be close, but I think Obama barely wins. Perhaps the trend will stall a little, but I can't quite read it yet. It'll be hard not being there this time, it's a very interesting place politically.
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« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2012, 09:51:09 am »
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« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2012, 10:27:07 am »
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Michigan should be fairly easy. The I-94  and I-96 corridors go for President Obama as do the I-75 and US 127/223 corridors up to about Grayling, and most of the western UP. You basically get metro Detroit, Lansing, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Flint, Saginaw, Muskegon, and any suburban spillover from Toledo and South Bend.

It's amazing that John McCain had no really-strong areas in Michigan -- no areas, even rural ones, in which he got more than 55% of the vote. Neighboring Wisconsin has a small belt of counties west and north of Milwaukee where McCain got 60-65% of the vote.  
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« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2012, 11:14:44 am »
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #30 on: April 13, 2012, 11:36:11 am »
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« Reply #31 on: April 13, 2012, 11:47:20 am »
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Maybe like this after the democrats are embarrassed AGAIN in the Recall.  They admit they can't operate at fever pitch much longer.     
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Miles
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« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2012, 12:02:29 pm »
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Maybe like this after the democrats are embarrassed AGAIN in the Recall.  They admit they can't operate at fever pitch much longer.      

You are aware that all WI polls thus far have shown Obama at least 5 points ahead of Romney, aren't you?
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« Reply #33 on: April 13, 2012, 12:07:43 pm »
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Quick job here. I have Romney winning Indiana around 52-44.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2012, 12:20:48 pm »
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Maybe like this after the democrats are embarrassed AGAIN in the Recall.  They admit they can't operate at fever pitch much longer.      

You are aware that all WI polls thus far have shown Obama at least 5 points ahead of Romney, aren't you?

Yea, I haven't seen any recent polls though.  In March Romney was losing by 8 points to Santorum prior to the Primary and than Romney turned it around in a week or two and won by 7 points, So Wisconsin really needs new polling.  It may take some time and effort for Romney to overtake officially, but it isn't a stretch or anything to expect him to preform similar to Walker or Johnson (who were shockingly similar).  Walker, Johnson, and Ryan individually carry more weight in Wisconsin than any living democrat and I can see all of them (Walker after the recall is over) campaigning for Romney 'hard'.
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« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2012, 12:32:15 pm »
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Invalid map.  You've got the colors reversed. Wink

(Looks like the attachment function doesn't work as I hoped, so here's the corrected map.)
« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 12:38:01 pm by Missouri Fox Trotter »Logged

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« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2012, 12:39:51 pm »
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I live in Somerset County, NJ. I think it will be pretty close between Obama and Romney. As a few other posters said Obama did win Somerset in 2008 but Christie won it in 2009 in the Governor's Race. The last governor to win Somerset was Jim Florio in the 1989 Governor's Race. I voted for Obama last time. I think I will be voting for Gary Johnson this time though.
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« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2012, 12:42:12 pm »
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I expect Obama to increase his share in Santa Clara County (slightly), have his share decrease in San Mateo County (again, slightly), and Romney to win Orange County by a point or two more than McCain won it.

Other than that, who knows. Tongue
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Miles
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« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2012, 12:45:33 pm »
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Maybe like this after the democrats are embarrassed AGAIN in the Recall.  They admit they can't operate at fever pitch much longer.      

You are aware that all WI polls thus far have shown Obama at least 5 points ahead of Romney, aren't you?

Yea, I haven't seen any recent polls though.  In March Romney was losing by 8 points to Santorum prior to the Primary and than Romney turned it around in a week or two and won by 7 points, So Wisconsin really needs new polling.  It may take some time and effort for Romney to overtake officially, but it isn't a stretch or anything to expect him to preform similar to Walker or Johnson (who were shockingly similar).  Walker, Johnson, and Ryan individually carry more weight in Wisconsin than any living democrat and I can see all of them (Walker after the recall is over) campaigning for Romney 'hard'.

Rasmussen had Obama up 11 at the end of March. From what I gather, Santorum was up until Romney bought the state.

The enthusiasm gap in Wisconsin was very severe in 2010, allowing for Johnson and Walker to win. I'm really not expecting anything close to the 2010 conditions there this year.
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« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2012, 01:11:12 pm »
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Maybe like this after the democrats are embarrassed AGAIN in the Recall.  They admit they can't operate at fever pitch much longer.     
Yeah no, Portage for one isn't going to vote republican in a presidential election considering it wasn't even that close in 2010.
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« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2012, 01:16:11 pm »
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Maybe like this after the democrats are embarrassed AGAIN in the Recall.  They admit they can't operate at fever pitch much longer.      

You are aware that all WI polls thus far have shown Obama at least 5 points ahead of Romney, aren't you?

Yea, I haven't seen any recent polls though.  In March Romney was losing by 8 points to Santorum prior to the Primary and than Romney turned it around in a week or two and won by 7 points, So Wisconsin really needs new polling.  It may take some time and effort for Romney to overtake officially, but it isn't a stretch or anything to expect him to preform similar to Walker or Johnson (who were shockingly similar).  Walker, Johnson, and Ryan individually carry more weight in Wisconsin than any living democrat and I can see all of them (Walker after the recall is over) campaigning for Romney 'hard'.

Rasmussen had Obama up 11 at the end of March. From what I gather, Santorum was up until Romney bought the state.

The enthusiasm gap in Wisconsin was very severe in 2010, allowing for Johnson and Walker to win. I'm really not expecting anything close to the 2010 conditions there this year.

That's what I'm talking about, Wisconsin has been in perpetual campaign mode since 2010 and the democrats have not gained an inch in this time span.  The failure of the recall will probably collapse democrat 'enthusiasm' and swing the few independents away from them.  

If the recall was on the same day as the presidential race, than it might be more of a jump ball and more influenced by the rest of the country, but alas it isn't.  

Side Note: if the Unions dump 40 million (state wide race here is usually 10 to 20 total) into the recall in June and lose again...  will they turn around and write the same checks AGAIN in November?      
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« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2012, 01:20:19 pm »
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« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2012, 01:26:55 pm »
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Romney 51 / 48 Obama



I was hoping someone would post a GA map, I knew I could count on you! I'm guessing you have Obama winning more rural counties because Romney is a poor fit for Georgia Republicans. I think he'll pick off a few rural counties but maybe not enough to really make a difference. If Obama improves it'll be mainly because of a better performance in metro Atlanta.

I agree on all the metro counties voting for Obama, but if I had to choose between Cobb and Gwinnett I'd say Gwinnett goes to Obama first. It's more diverse and its white population is declining at a faster rate.
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« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2012, 01:54:42 pm »
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Quick job here. I have Romney winning Indiana around 52-44.

I see it much closer than 52-44 due to Obama's shenanigans like he pulled in 08. Plus the primaries are nowhere near over.
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« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2012, 02:41:47 pm »
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Maybe like this after the democrats are embarrassed AGAIN in the Recall.  They admit they can't operate at fever pitch much longer.      

You are aware that all WI polls thus far have shown Obama at least 5 points ahead of Romney, aren't you?

Yea, I haven't seen any recent polls though.  In March Romney was losing by 8 points to Santorum prior to the Primary and than Romney turned it around in a week or two and won by 7 points, So Wisconsin really needs new polling.  It may take some time and effort for Romney to overtake officially, but it isn't a stretch or anything to expect him to preform similar to Walker or Johnson (who were shockingly similar).  Walker, Johnson, and Ryan individually carry more weight in Wisconsin than any living democrat and I can see all of them (Walker after the recall is over) campaigning for Romney 'hard'.

Rasmussen had Obama up 11 at the end of March. From what I gather, Santorum was up until Romney bought the state.

The enthusiasm gap in Wisconsin was very severe in 2010, allowing for Johnson and Walker to win. I'm really not expecting anything close to the 2010 conditions there this year.

That's what I'm talking about, Wisconsin has been in perpetual campaign mode since 2010 and the democrats have not gained an inch in this time span.  

The State Senate has gone from 19-14 R to 16-16 even....
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« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2012, 03:06:44 pm »
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...with one vacant republican seat.  So, 17-16 GOP.  Point?  You aren't implying that tens of millions of dollars from out of state flipping two state senate seats (normally campaign on tens of thousands) is a 'gain' are you? 

One senator was in a bad divorce, had a young girlfriend, and a lot of state employees in his district so I'm shocked the seat was lost after millions of dollars were thrown at it.     
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« Reply #46 on: April 13, 2012, 03:16:22 pm »
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Lowly Griff
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« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2012, 08:15:51 pm »
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Romney 51 / 48 Obama



I was hoping someone would post a GA map, I knew I could count on you! I'm guessing you have Obama winning more rural counties because Romney is a poor fit for Georgia Republicans. I think he'll pick off a few rural counties but maybe not enough to really make a difference. If Obama improves it'll be mainly because of a better performance in metro Atlanta.

I agree on all the metro counties voting for Obama, but if I had to choose between Cobb and Gwinnett I'd say Gwinnett goes to Obama first. It's more diverse and its white population is declining at a faster rate.

I'm definitely thinking Obama could pick up a few more points in the "Black Belt", particularly in some of the counties that have strayed in recent years. Romney's going to have perhaps the lowest amount of support there in all of GA. There could also be some gains in the rural corridor between Athens and Augusta (McDuffie, Elbert, Wilkes) as well as in between Columbus and Atlanta (a la Meriwether).

I still think Cobb will flip before Gwinnett based solely on entropy; Gwinnett surged in 2008 and it's growing much faster, but it was a exceptionably huge surge (even for the changing demographics) and I don't think it will necessarily hold or keep up in pace. Cobb saw its margin shrink by 14 points in 2008, while Gwinnett had a major, 22 point margin reduction. On top of that, suburban whites typically are more moderate/progressive on the NW edge of Atlanta than in the NE section and I could see a lot of whites that supported Obama in 2008 defecting back in 2012. That could happen in Cobb, too. Who knows.

If the Latino population in Norcross (20% of Gwinnett County's pop) decides to start voting, in conjunction with the 10% Asian population and 24% AA population, then we can call Gwinnett before Cobb. Otherwise, I think the more moderate sections (i.e.: Kennesaw/KSU area) will carry Cobb to the D side first. It's quite possible that neither will happen this election cycle, though, and I do admit at being a little optimistic with flipping Cobb to the Democrats.
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« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2012, 08:42:40 pm »
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Florida: Obama 49.85/48.5 Romney

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2012, 10:36:26 pm »
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I think my state would vote 50% Obama, 49% Romney.

I guess you missed the latest poll.
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