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| | |-+  How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?
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Author Topic: How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?  (Read 4502 times)
Fuzzybigfoot
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« on: April 13, 2012, 12:12:48 am »
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I had a thread like this a while back, so I thought I'd start a new one.


So how will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?  Maps are recommended, of course!  Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2012, 12:16:36 am »
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About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.
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« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2012, 12:20:41 am »
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It'd probably look something like this:



I'll no doubt do a prediction map later.

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

Are we giving the FP voters to Romney? Then again I'm not sure who exactly they would support, none of the third parties really work since Pat Buchanan in 2000.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2012, 12:23:50 am »
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I think my state would vote 50% Obama, 49% Romney. Turnout for Republicans will be higher, Obama turnout will be lower. Jefferson, Broomfield counties flip to REP and a few counties in the south.  Close election.

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« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 12:38:08 am by RockyIce »Logged

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« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2012, 12:30:05 am »
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Probably slightly worse than 2008. Only 4 parishes are actually trending D.

59-39 Romney. I'd say 37% is Obama's floor and his ceiling should be about 41%.

« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 12:34:41 am by MilesC56 »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2012, 12:30:20 am »
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Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:


I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...
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NE Rep. Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2012, 01:05:35 am »
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Romney 51 / 48 Obama

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« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2012, 01:06:15 am »
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Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:


I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...

You think Romney will win Salem but not Somerset? Obama was actually the first Democrat since 1964 to win Somerset so if the state swings against him (which I'm not convinced of), he'd almost certainly lose it.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
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« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2012, 01:09:26 am »
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Where do you get map tool for this kind of thing?
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2012, 01:09:49 am »
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MS Paint.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
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« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2012, 01:13:10 am »
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For California, the big question is if Romney loses so badly that he fails to win Orange County.
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« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2012, 01:16:05 am »
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About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

Are we giving the FP voters to Romney? Then again I'm not sure who exactly they would support, none of the third parties really work since Pat Buchanan in 2000.

Some of the FP voters vote Romney, some for Obama, many stay at home. This is based on polls for France, in which many FN voters would back Hollande in a run-off. Same story with the VP, but many VP voters would back Obama, because Obama is basically a VP-man.

Here is a likely county map:



Just substitute "2010" with "2012" ... Wink
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LastVoter
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« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2012, 01:32:37 am »
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MS Paint.
ah f[inks] I should quoted the posts to see the url's I thought atlas had something for counties too.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2012, 01:41:06 am »
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NE Rep. Griffin
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2012, 01:43:53 am »
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What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2012, 01:46:46 am »
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Clark obviously votes for Obama, barring some kind of landslide nationwide defeat.  Assuming Obama wins the state, he'll likely take Washoe again, and probably Carson City again.  Anything else was McCain country in '08, though of the random empty counties, Mineral seems marginally favorable to the Dems these days.  Romney is guaranteed Lincoln county no matter what, of course.
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Real Americans (and Big Sky Bob) demand to know.


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2012, 01:50:00 am »
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When setting up a hypothetical Austrian Exit Poll, I come up with slightly different numbers:

28% FP (25% Romney, 20% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 45% non-voters)
28% SP (10% Romney, 70% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 10% non-voters)
23% VP (35% Romney, 35% Obama, 10% Stein, 5% Others, 15% non-voters)
14% Greens (5% Romney, 10% Obama, 75% Stein, 5% Others, 5% non-voters)
  4% BZ (50% Romney, 15% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 25% non-voters)
  3% Others (10% Romney, 10% Obama, 10% Stein, 10% Others, 60% non-voters)

Total: 21% Romney, 36% Obama, 16% Stein, 5% Others, 22% non-voters

Total (excl. non-voters): 27% Romney, 46% Obama, 21% Stein, 6% Others
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LastVoter
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« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2012, 01:55:19 am »
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Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2012, 01:56:10 am »
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What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.
I just took a map from wiki, less effort than print screen.
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NE Rep. Griffin
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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2012, 01:57:57 am »
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What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.
I just took a map from wiki, less effort than print screen.

Should be a key at the top right of your keyboard for it. Didn't know if you were aware of it; it's about as easy as it gets.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2012, 02:35:42 am »
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Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SP/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SP voters who prefer the VP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.
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« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2012, 02:41:44 am »
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Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SP/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SP voters who prefer the VP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.
Still I find it strange, because I think the  VP isn't nearly as right-wing as Romney(if you don't count MA governor build).
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« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2012, 02:50:15 am »
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Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SP/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SP voters who prefer the VP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.
Still I find it strange, because I think the  VP isn't nearly as right-wing as Romney(if you don't count MA governor build).

These are only my hypothetical calculations anyway, there's no way to prove it, unless we get a poll in the fall that has crosstabs by party.
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« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2012, 03:02:50 am »
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WA:

If Obama improves with working-class whites, he may win Spokane; if he deteriorates, he'll probably lose Klickitat and Wahkiakum.  Beyond that, I don't expect Washington to swing much.  Obama has probably maxed out on counties besides Spokane.  There are a few others Romney might take back in a victory scenario -- basically all the Bush '04 counties plus possibly Mason...although Skagit might be beyond redemption for the Republicans.

sry no pretty map
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« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2012, 03:47:29 am »
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I'm thinking something close to this:

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