How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I had a thread like this a while back, so I thought I'd start a new one.


So how will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?  Maps are recommended, of course!  

[Tender Branson]

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

[So the Heroes Fall]

It'd probably look something like this:



I'll no doubt do a prediction map later.

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

Are we giving the FPÖ voters to Romney? Then again I'm not sure who exactly they would support, none of the third parties really work since Pat Buchanan in 2000.

[5280/East California]

I think my state would vote 50% Obama, 49% Romney. Turnout for Republicans will be higher, Obama turnout will be lower. Jefferson, Broomfield counties flip to REP and a few counties in the south.  Close election.

2012

[MilesC56]

Probably slightly worse than 2008. Only 4 parishes are actually trending D.

59-39 Romney. I'd say 37% is Obama's floor and his ceiling should be about 41%.

[Chareth Cutestory]

Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:


I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...

[GM Griffin]

Romney 51 / 48 Obama

[So the Heroes Fall]

Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:


I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...

You think Romney will win Salem but not Somerset? Obama was actually the first Democrat since 1964 to win Somerset so if the state swings against him (which I'm not convinced of), he'd almost certainly lose it.

[ModerateCoward]

Where do you get map tool for this kind of thing?

[So the Heroes Fall]

MS Paint.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For California, the big question is if Romney loses so badly that he fails to win Orange County.

[Tender Branson]

About 60% for Barack Obama, 20% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Jill Stein and 5% for others.

Are we giving the FPÖ voters to Romney? Then again I'm not sure who exactly they would support, none of the third parties really work since Pat Buchanan in 2000.

Some of the FPÖ voters vote Romney, some for Obama, many stay at home. This is based on polls for France, in which many FN voters would back Hollande in a run-off. Same story with the ÖVP, but many ÖVP voters would back Obama, because Obama is basically a ÖVP-man.

Here is a likely county map:



Just substitute "2010" with "2012" ...

[ModerateCoward]

MS Paint.

ah f[inks] I should quoted the posts to see the url's I thought atlas had something for counties too.

[ModerateCoward]

[GM Griffin]

What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.

[Joe Republic]

Clark obviously votes for Obama, barring some kind of landslide nationwide defeat.  Assuming Obama wins the state, he'll likely take Washoe again, and probably Carson City again.  Anything else was McCain country in '08, though of the random empty counties, Mineral seems marginally favorable to the Dems these days.  Romney is guaranteed Lincoln county no matter what, of course.

[Tender Branson]

When setting up a hypothetical Austrian Exit Poll, I come up with slightly different numbers:

28% FPÖ (25% Romney, 20% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 45% non-voters)
28% SPÖ (10% Romney, 70% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 10% non-voters)
23% ÖVP (35% Romney, 35% Obama, 10% Stein, 5% Others, 15% non-voters)
14% Greens (5% Romney, 10% Obama, 75% Stein, 5% Others, 5% non-voters)
  4% BZÖ (50% Romney, 15% Obama, 5% Stein, 5% Others, 25% non-voters)
  3% Others (10% Romney, 10% Obama, 10% Stein, 10% Others, 60% non-voters)

Total: 21% Romney, 36% Obama, 16% Stein, 5% Others, 22% non-voters

Total (excl. non-voters): 27% Romney, 46% Obama, 21% Stein, 6% Others

[ModerateCoward]

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

[ModerateCoward]

What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.

I just took a map from wiki, less effort than print screen.

[GM Griffin]

What's up with the pixelation/colors? You can use the Print Screen function while viewing the map on Atlas and paste it into MS Paint.

I just took a map from wiki, less effort than print screen.

Should be a key at the top right of your keyboard for it. Didn't know if you were aware of it; it's about as easy as it gets.

[Tender Branson]

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.

[ModerateCoward]

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.

Still I find it strange, because I think the  ÖVP isn't nearly as right-wing as Romney(if you don't count MA governor build).

[Tender Branson]

Why such high support for Romney among left-wingers?

5-10% support for Romney among SPÖ/Greens doesn't seem to be high for me. That's also what you get when you look at Austrian internals from polls about a generic chancellor matchup. There are always about 10% of SPÖ voters who prefer the ÖVP-leader as Chancellor and vice-versa.

Still I find it strange, because I think the  ÖVP isn't nearly as right-wing as Romney(if you don't count MA governor build).

These are only my hypothetical calculations anyway, there's no way to prove it, unless we get a poll in the fall that has crosstabs by party.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

WA:

If Obama improves with working-class whites, he may win Spokane; if he deteriorates, he'll probably lose Klickitat and Wahkiakum.  Beyond that, I don't expect Washington to swing much.  Obama has probably maxed out on counties besides Spokane.  There are a few others Romney might take back in a victory scenario -- basically all the Bush '04 counties plus possibly Mason...although Skagit might be beyond redemption for the Republicans.

sry no pretty map

[greenforest32]

I'm thinking something close to this: