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Author Topic: How will your state vote in the presidential election, county by county?  (Read 4072 times)
tmthforu94
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« Reply #50 on: April 13, 2012, 10:41:38 pm »
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I think my state would vote 50% Obama, 49% Romney.

I guess you missed the latest poll.
Dude, it's April. A PPP poll from late-March 2008 had McCain up 11 on Obama in Florida.
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« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2012, 10:43:50 pm »
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I think my state would vote 50% Obama, 49% Romney.

I guess you missed the latest poll.
Dude, it's April. A PPP poll from late-March 2008 had McCain up 11 on Obama in Florida.

Romney is trailing by 13% in Colorado, and it's not getting any better for him.
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« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2012, 10:46:14 pm »
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Romney 51 / 48 Obama



I was hoping someone would post a GA map, I knew I could count on you! I'm guessing you have Obama winning more rural counties because Romney is a poor fit for Georgia Republicans. I think he'll pick off a few rural counties but maybe not enough to really make a difference. If Obama improves it'll be mainly because of a better performance in metro Atlanta.

I agree on all the metro counties voting for Obama, but if I had to choose between Cobb and Gwinnett I'd say Gwinnett goes to Obama first. It's more diverse and its white population is declining at a faster rate.

I'm definitely thinking Obama could pick up a few more points in the "Black Belt", particularly in some of the counties that have strayed in recent years. Romney's going to have perhaps the lowest amount of support there in all of GA. There could also be some gains in the rural corridor between Athens and Augusta (McDuffie, Elbert, Wilkes) as well as in between Columbus and Atlanta (a la Meriwether).

I still think Cobb will flip before Gwinnett based solely on entropy; Gwinnett surged in 2008 and it's growing much faster, but it was a exceptionably huge surge (even for the changing demographics) and I don't think it will necessarily hold or keep up in pace. Cobb saw its margin shrink by 14 points in 2008, while Gwinnett had a major, 22 point margin reduction. On top of that, suburban whites typically are more moderate/progressive on the NW edge of Atlanta than in the NE section and I could see a lot of whites that supported Obama in 2008 defecting back in 2012. That could happen in Cobb, too. Who knows.

If the Latino population in Norcross (20% of Gwinnett County's pop) decides to start voting, in conjunction with the 10% Asian population and 24% AA population, then we can call Gwinnett before Cobb. Otherwise, I think the more moderate sections (i.e.: Kennesaw/KSU area) will carry Cobb to the D side first. It's quite possible that neither will happen this election cycle, though, and I do admit at being a little optimistic with flipping Cobb to the Democrats.
Gwinnett County whites are very conservative in the majority of the county.  I think they will be mobilized enough to remove Obama that Romney's blandness won't have much effect.  Then again, it's early days; he might yet make some major gaffes.
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« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2012, 10:48:31 pm »
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It's hard to say. They're both such awful candidates for TN. Turnout's going to be depressed, especially in rural areas.
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« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2012, 10:53:05 pm »
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« Reply #55 on: April 13, 2012, 11:43:34 pm »
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Bergen County NJ could go for Romney. I think Somerset goes back to the GOP too.
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« Reply #56 on: April 14, 2012, 09:08:07 am »
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...with one vacant republican seat.  So, 17-16 GOP.  Point?  You aren't implying that tens of millions of dollars from out of state flipping two state senate seats (normally campaign on tens of thousands) is a 'gain' are you? 

One senator was in a bad divorce, had a young girlfriend, and a lot of state employees in his district so I'm shocked the seat was lost after millions of dollars were thrown at it.     

The State Senators recalled in 2008 had been elected in 2008, a year in which President Obama had won handily. 2008 was already a bad year for Republicans in Wisconsin, and there was little room for improvement for Democrats. But that said, the Democrats made gains, picking up State Senate seats that often seemed "Safe R" in 2008. 

The Tea Party winners of 2010 will be up for recall in 2012, and they have been the bulk of the support for Gauleiter -- I mean Governor -- Walker. State Senate seats that easily went R in 2010 but would not have so gone in 2006 or 2008 might not be so easy to defend in a General Election that includes the President.

Scott Walker is wildly unpopular in Wisconsin.  Even if he survives the recall he is going to find himself with a state legislature that doesn't kick its heels and follow him blindly.   
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« Reply #57 on: April 14, 2012, 02:46:49 pm »
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FTR, this is a 12 point or so Obama victory (Obama slightly improves from 2008, and Romney, unlike McCain, will not spend his entire campaign in PA)
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« Reply #58 on: April 15, 2012, 08:25:11 am »
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...with one vacant republican seat.  So, 17-16 GOP.  Point?  You aren't implying that tens of millions of dollars from out of state flipping two state senate seats (normally campaign on tens of thousands) is a 'gain' are you? 

One senator was in a bad divorce, had a young girlfriend, and a lot of state employees in his district so I'm shocked the seat was lost after millions of dollars were thrown at it.     

The State Senators recalled in 2008 had been elected in 2008, a year in which President Obama had won handily. 2008 was already a bad year for Republicans in Wisconsin, and there was little room for improvement for Democrats. But that said, the Democrats made gains, picking up State Senate seats that often seemed "Safe R" in 2008. 

The Tea Party winners of 2010 will be up for recall in 2012, and they have been the bulk of the support for Gauleiter -- I mean Governor -- Walker. State Senate seats that easily went R in 2010 but would not have so gone in 2006 or 2008 might not be so easy to defend in a General Election that includes the President.

Scott Walker is wildly unpopular in Wisconsin.  Even if he survives the recall he is going to find himself with a state legislature that doesn't kick its heels and follow him blindly.   

Wow.  Over 51% approval is "wildly unpopular" now.  Considering the blindly belligerent opposition to modest reforms caused so much collateral damage, it is hard to believe any Governor would be that popular. 
I'm amazed a party that fled the state (illegally) to Illinois (a fiscal train wreck) and held some of it's own members hostage (they wanted to return to their families or end the constitutional crisis they created) can speak about fiercely independent, courageous people as "blind followers."  Projection? ? ?     
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« Reply #59 on: April 15, 2012, 09:47:08 am »
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clean sweep for obama.

i could see romney carrying plymouth and barnstable counties in a close election.
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« Reply #60 on: April 15, 2012, 10:41:03 am »
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.




Jeez. And here I thought even the most rosy-eyed Romney supporters had given up believing it would be 2010 forever.

Suckers like this are exactly why I keep thinking I need to get an intrade account
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« Reply #61 on: April 15, 2012, 10:44:00 am »
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Quick job here. I have Romney winning Indiana around 52-44.

I see it much closer than 52-44 due to Obama's shenanigans like he pulled in 08. Plus the primaries are nowhere near over.

'Shenanigans' like actually campaigning and devoting resources to the state?
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« Reply #62 on: April 15, 2012, 10:48:31 am »
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FTR, this is a 12 point or so Obama victory (Obama slightly improves from 2008, and Romney, unlike McCain, will not spend his entire campaign in PA)

I'm a little skeptical about the sw counties flipping back. Romney won't conceed PA tooreadily.
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« Reply #63 on: April 15, 2012, 10:59:45 am »
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I'm being very generous to Romney here, judging by what I've seen on the ground.

The GOP is lucky Gingrich won't be their nominee, because this would be a very different map if he was.
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« Reply #64 on: April 15, 2012, 11:46:11 am »
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For D.C., the Obama over-under will be around 90%; I think Obama will not do as well as his 92% in 2008, but then again even Kerry got 89% in 2004.
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« Reply #65 on: April 15, 2012, 02:12:33 pm »
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Romney will carry ND, the only question is if he goes over 60%. Obama will carry a few counties(Sioux, Rolette and maybe one or two others), Romney should run up some big margins in the western half of the state(oil and coal country) and I don't see Obama doing as strongly in the east as he did in 2008.
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« Reply #66 on: April 16, 2012, 06:10:34 pm »
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Do we have anyone from Ohio or New York who would like to post a map?  Wink  
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« Reply #67 on: April 16, 2012, 06:30:45 pm »
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Slight Romney swing. Obama 58/40
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« Reply #68 on: April 16, 2012, 10:08:54 pm »
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In Nebraska, I believe that Romney will carry every county.  Lancaster and Douglas will be the closest.  Thurston and Saline will also be close.
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« Reply #69 on: April 16, 2012, 10:15:17 pm »
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Romney will win Texas for sure, but I expect Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and El Paso still with Obama.

If anyone can make a map for TX let me see, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ft. Bend County went to Obama.
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« Reply #70 on: April 16, 2012, 11:33:06 pm »
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Assuming roughly a 59-39 split:

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« Reply #71 on: April 17, 2012, 11:15:03 pm »
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Am I the only guy who thinks Romney will win his home state of MA?
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« Reply #72 on: April 17, 2012, 11:18:38 pm »
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Am I the only guy who thinks Romney will win his home state of MA?

wat
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« Reply #73 on: April 17, 2012, 11:23:38 pm »
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Am I the only guy who thinks Romney will win his home state of MA?

wat

Most candidates tend to do well in their home state.
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« Reply #74 on: April 17, 2012, 11:27:21 pm »
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Am I the only guy who thinks Romney will win his home state of MA?

wat

Most candidates tend to do well in their home state.

That's assuming there's an ideological base to carry him most of the way. The home state advantage for Mitt will probably leave him just shy of 40%.
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