Jersey is easy so I'll go with that for now:
I'll do Pennsylvania and North Carolina at some point...
Oh, definitely. I wouldn't be surprised to see Somerset start to fall (barely) on the Democratic side in national races. It was actually the only county in the state to have trended Democratic for both of the last two elections. The demographics are changing so drastically in the urban center of the county while Franklin becomes more Democratic and the Somerset Hills' rabid support of Christie/Romney type Republicans is softening. Meanwhile South Jersey's Democratic support has almost always been somewhat soft. They're much more likely to swing back and forth than North Jersey.
That being said, I'm expecting Romney to relatively underperform because I expect a reasonably large Obama win. I think Somerset is a tough one simply because it's just so loaded with wealthy voters and Hispanics. It'll be close, but I think Obama barely wins. Perhaps the trend will stall a little, but I can't quite read it yet. It'll be hard not being there this time, it's a very interesting place politically.
