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Question: Which Scenario Is Likely?
Scenario 1   -14 (37.8%)
Scenario 2   -19 (51.4%)
Scenario 3   -4 (10.8%)
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Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: Which Scenario Is Likely?  (Read 2175 times)
Spooky Mike
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« on: April 13, 2012, 04:40:47 pm »
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Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.









Unemployment rises to 9.4 and gas goes up but Obama wins by a smaller victory.
 







Everything goes bad Unemployment rises to 12+,Stocks plunge,War with Iran with them threatening to launch nukes everywhere results a romney landslide.
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perdedor
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« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2012, 04:56:41 pm »
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All indicators point to scenario 1 being the most likely, though I don't think Obama wins South Carolina.
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TXMichael
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« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2012, 05:16:55 pm »
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Not 3

Vermont goes Republican?  Massachusetts and Rhode Island go Republican?  However Maine (with all the electoral votes), Minnesota and one Nebraska elector go Democratic?

If there is a GOP landslide it will not be 3.
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R2D2
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2012, 05:18:07 pm »
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Scenario 2 is the one that's going to happen.
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« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2012, 05:21:54 pm »
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1 and 3 are pretty unlikely, so 2 by default. The employment rate isn't going back up to 12 and gas will not be $2.56 a gallon any time in the remote future without something crazy happening.
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« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2012, 05:22:57 pm »
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If unemployment went to 9.4 that map would look a lot worse for Obama. Give Romney SC and #1 would probably look ok but I don't see that happening(especially gas prices).
« Last Edit: April 13, 2012, 05:24:29 pm by Fargobison »Logged
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2012, 05:31:35 pm »
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Wow, is number 1 modest.
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« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2012, 05:42:57 pm »
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Alot of Democrats on the forum are hopeful of their messiah, I don't buy it.

I would say option 2.5
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2012, 05:45:53 pm »
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None of these scenarios are "likely".

The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%. 
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Fmr. Pres. Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2012, 05:46:48 pm »
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I picked Scenario 2, but I think it will be a bit more optimistic than that (Perhaps Scenario 1.5). I also can't see SC going before MO, MT, AZ and GA.
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« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2012, 06:36:22 pm »
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Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
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R2D2
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« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2012, 06:38:41 pm »
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None of these scenarios are "likely".

The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%. 

You're saying it's more likely that all but apocalyptic conditions will occur, causing Romney to win all but four states and a congressional district in Nebraska than it is for Obama to win re-election with 9.4% unemployment?

>Republican logic
>Seems legit
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« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2012, 06:46:21 pm »
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Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.



Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.
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« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2012, 06:48:57 pm »
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Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.

Overall I agree with this map, but how is President Obama more likely to win South Carolina rather than Georgia in this scenario? 
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R2D2
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2012, 06:52:52 pm »
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Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.



Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.

Uh, no.
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Inshallah, Shalom.
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« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2012, 09:31:52 pm »
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Why would Maine not flip before VT, MA, etc?
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Trump Bushie
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« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2012, 09:58:55 pm »
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I'm going with option 2.5  I think Option 2 is the most likely, but I think a small Romney victory is definitely not out of the realm of possibility.  It will not be a landslide either way.
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2012, 10:07:40 pm »
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Somewhere between 1 and 2.
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Scott
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« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2012, 10:08:28 pm »
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Obama wins Indiana but loses Ohio?  No.
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« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2012, 10:22:10 pm »
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A slight tweaking of 2.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2012, 10:45:58 pm »
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Option 2 with Ohio instead of Indiana.
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Cory
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« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2012, 03:59:18 pm »
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Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2012, 04:06:52 pm »
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Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.
Now that I think about it the whole point of this exercise was to see if the moderate Obama victory is likelier with unusual states than the two extreme scenarios. If you are to take these at face-value, option 1 is most likely because in option 3 more states would go Democratic since the base is more enthusiastic about Obama than the GOP.
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« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2012, 04:08:53 pm »
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SC in the first map and IN in the second make no sense.
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« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2012, 04:27:32 pm »
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I think option 2.5 is the most realistic.  By the way, Obama is not going to carry Nebraska's CD-2.  The state legislature saw to that in redistricting last year.  The way they split up Sarpy County, Obama wouldn't have carried it in 2008 and he is much less popular here than he was 4 years ago.
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