Which Scenario Is Likely?

[Clinton 2016]

Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.









Unemployment rises to 9.4 and gas goes up but Obama wins by a smaller victory.
 







Everything goes bad Unemployment rises to 12+,Stocks plunge,War with Iran with them threatening to launch nukes everywhere results a romney landslide.

[perdedor]

All indicators point to scenario 1 being the most likely, though I don't think Obama wins South Carolina.

[TXMichael]

Not 3

Vermont goes Republican?  Massachusetts and Rhode Island go Republican?  However Maine (with all the electoral votes), Minnesota and one Nebraska elector go Democratic?

If there is a GOP landslide it will not be 3.

[Big Wiggly Style]

Scenario 2 is the one that's going to happen.

[TJ in Wisco]

1 and 3 are pretty unlikely, so 2 by default. The employment rate isn't going back up to 12 and gas will not be $2.56 a gallon any time in the remote future without something crazy happening.

[Fargobison]

If unemployment went to 9.4 that map would look a lot worse for Obama. Give Romney SC and #1 would probably look ok but I don't see that happening(especially gas prices).

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Wow, is number 1 modest.

[5280/East California]

Alot of Democrats on the forum are hopeful of their messiah, I don't buy it.

I would say option 2.5

[Rockefeller]

None of these scenarios are "likely".

The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%. 

[GM Griffin]

I picked Scenario 2, but I think it will be a bit more optimistic than that (Perhaps Scenario 1.5). I also can't see SC going before MO, MT, AZ and GA.

[hopper]

Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.

[Big Wiggly Style]

None of these scenarios are "likely".

The most likely, however, is option 3 just because it Option 1 is impossible (Obama winning SC but not MO) and Obama will not win re-election if unemployment jumps to 9.4%. 

You're saying it's more likely that all but apocalyptic conditions will occur, causing Romney to win all but four states and a congressional district in Nebraska than it is for Obama to win re-election with 9.4% unemployment?

>Republican logic
>Seems legit

[Ray Goldfield]

Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.



Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.

[Frodo]

Unemployment drops to 7.4,gas is around $2.56,Hiring picks up,Obama rating rises to mid to high 60s.

Overall I agree with this map, but how is President Obama more likely to win South Carolina rather than Georgia in this scenario? 

[Big Wiggly Style]

Option 2 or option 2.5, which basically looks like this.



Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado could go Romney in a "landslide". Possibly Michigan or New Mexico, but I doubt it.

Uh, no.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Why would Maine not flip before VT, MA, etc?

[BushKenya]

I'm going with option 2.5  I think Option 2 is the most likely, but I think a small Romney victory is definitely not out of the realm of possibility.  It will not be a landslide either way.

[MilesC56]

Somewhere between 1 and 2.

[Governor Scott]

Obama wins Indiana but loses Ohio?  No.

[Comrade Shmoo]

A slight tweaking of 2.

[ModerateCoward]

Option 2 with Ohio instead of Indiana.

[Cory]

Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.

[ModerateCoward]

Scenario 2 though you flip Ohio to the Dems and Indiana to the Republicans.

Now that I think about it the whole point of this exercise was to see if the moderate Obama victory is likelier with unusual states than the two extreme scenarios. If you are to take these at face-value, option 1 is most likely because in option 3 more states would go Democratic since the base is more enthusiastic about Obama than the GOP.

[Californian Tony]

SC in the first map and IN in the second make no sense.

[rbt48]

I think option 2.5 is the most realistic.  By the way, Obama is not going to carry Nebraska's CD-2.  The state legislature saw to that in redistricting last year.  The way they split up Sarpy County, Obama wouldn't have carried it in 2008 and he is much less popular here than he was 4 years ago.